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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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Who cares what that shows? There would easily be cane force gusts over all of SNE. We want this to go west of us..and Cape May to NYC to MRG is just about perfect..maybe a little east of that

No it won't. The slower movement of this thing will prevent monster winds from penetrating far inland. We want that track a bit east anyway since it makes landfall over S NJ...we want it over W LI when it makes landfall.

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No it won't. The slower movement of this thing will prevent monster winds from penetrating far inland. We want that track a bit east anyway since it makes landfall over S NJ...we want it over W LI when it makes landfall.

I agree we'd like it slightly east of NYC..but if it is a cat 1 0r 2 over NYC we'd get raked with winds..no question about it

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No it won't. The slower movement of this thing will prevent monster winds from penetrating far inland. We want that track a bit east anyway since it makes landfall over S NJ...we want it over W LI when it makes landfall.

Sometimes I wonder about him. At any rate this just notched up, those 18 Z models are starting to cluster over ECT RI EMA, slow mover pretty expansive wind fields, its getting antsy time. Still waiting until 12Z tomorrow, but huge decision already made, outside events with huge tents have all been cancelled.

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No it won't. The slower movement of this thing will prevent monster winds from penetrating far inland. We want that track a bit east anyway since it makes landfall over S NJ...we want it over W LI when it makes landfall.

Great, so you want it passing right over me :( LOL, JK Will. The early call on the 18z runs is that they are coming in west also.

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HM on board

Even with the less intense offshore track toward Cape Cod, I still think the coastal flooding will be exaggerated. The acceleration in the track with Irene only amplifies the hurricane-force wind potential for southern New England and Long Island. But more importantly, I think the storm surge/flooding will be pretty intense with the current modeled solutions. Throw in the showers/thunderstorms ahead of this thing (starting tomorrow) and you've got a perfect recipe for flooding (oh and the record monthly August totals).

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Models still spread… Euro is out near Springfield…GFDL/HWRF bring the eye over FIT…GFS/NAM are east – although slightly west of previous…

If you put them all in a blender and poured yourself a glass of forecast it would taste like 20W of ORH, which puts all of eastern MASS in a hot zone of dying wind field and random land falling ‘cane attributed F1 tornadoes. Fun stuff…

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Models still spread… Euro is out near Springfield…GFDL/HWRF bring the eye over FIT…GFS/NAM are east – although slightly west of previous…

If you put them all in a blender and poured yourself a glass of forecast it would taste like 20W of ORH, which puts all of eastern MASS in a hot zone of dying wind field and random land falling ‘cane attributed F1 tornadoes. Fun stuff…

And the rest of us watching raging rivers and waterfalls.

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anyone got a pump I can borrow for my basement next week for my old place in CT? Starting to think I may need it arrowheadsmiley.png

Up till this morning really was thinking this thing would end up being a whiff. But looking closer this morning...once tomorrow nights front clears...there's really nothing that's gonna force Irene eastward very quickly. Euro picked up on that. Its obviously a west outlier...but it adds to the growing support complete whiff in SNE is increasingly unlikely.

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LOL..no :arrowhead: This guy is actually one of the best mets around. He used to post alot more. He's shall we say "mysterious"

The other thing to note from that discussion is how they're talking about the windfield being huge on both the left and right sides of the storm-- a la 1944, Ike, etc.-- especially if this maxes out as a Cat 4 and slowly weakens, the wind field will expand exponentially. There is also a lag effect with surge in weakening storms and the geography of the coastline here makes even a minimal storm produce a major surge.

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Models still spread… Euro is out near Springfield…GFDL/HWRF bring the eye over FIT…GFS/NAM are east – although slightly west of previous…

If you put them all in a blender and poured yourself a glass of forecast it would taste like 20W of ORH, which puts all of eastern MASS in a hot zone of dying wind field and random land falling ‘cane attributed F1 tornadoes. Fun stuff…

Can't wait...seriously!!! Been hoping for something like this for awhile...

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