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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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00z mon over NYC

ANy ideas on strength...is the fact it is riding up so close to the coast causing it to weaken a lot?

I would imagine that if it makes a Cape May landfall, it would still have to be a strong Cat 2, if not a low end Cat 3...then maintain Cat 1 strength up into NYC? This is of course pure weenie spculation on my part.

Really, a very very bad scenario if that verifies.

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ANy ideas on strength...is the fact it is riding up so close to the coast causing it to weaken a lot?

I would imagine that if it makes a Cape May landfall, it would still have to be a strong Cat 2, if not a low end Cat 3...then maintain Cat 1 strength up into NYC? This is of course pure weenie spculation on my part.

Really, a very very bad scenario if that verifies.

That 1821 analog is coming into play

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"Great" news, euro just reaffirms it's likely going to hit LI or RI somewhere. Goalposts are NYC and probably HYA for highest probability.

About the worst goalposts for New England hit. Thankfully this will be fairly slow moving so we can look forward to major but not 1938 catastrophic damage. Some of the highest tides of the month and with a track to the west of the east facing beaches some huge erosion issues.

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