Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ensembles are over Phil's fanny. came west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ensembles are over Phil's fanny. The AWT trend west before the eventual trend east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 No unfortunately I only have URI's GSO GIS maps Ok, I'm sure it would be an incredible sight. Pictures i've seen of Onset, Wareham and Buzzards Bay from 38 and later storms...total floodzilla. For those areas along the western approach to the Canal stage of current will be immense. If we have a west running tide as the storm surge approaches it's going to get really ugly as all the water from Cape Cod Bay pours into the Canal up against the storm surge. East running tide would help to alleviate that but to what degree? http://wareham-ma.villagesoup.com/news/story/experts-were-due-for-a-hurricane-prepare-ahead-of-time/139262 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 came west? Mmmm hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I have a flight to Boston next Thursday. Was a serious question. I know it can't be easily answered. I guess using something like Bob could be a useful comparo at least. Assuming they will be open for biz but if it's bad enough maybe not? yeah it's so hard to say and i hate speculating on that kind of stuff. i know our local chamber of commerce would tell you "c'mon on down!" where i lived at the time, Bob sort of ended the summer tourist season. (could be nice if you like it quiet. LOL) and honestly...you know the weather. if it's a strong TS/weak CAT 1 passing over CHH or ACK...eh...bad storm but really not an infrastructure issue. fun to chase and be out in and stuff etc but life goes on quickly, i think. if it's CAT 1/2/3 and heading up into RI or whatever, that's a whole different ballgame out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 came west? Yeah. But everyone should relax with the trend with each model run. Remember when the exact same thing happened with Earl? Just keep that in mind. In any case, it's much better than seeing a trend east, but that could happen in the next 72 hrs. Patience Danielson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 yeah it's so hard to say and i hate speculating on that kind of stuff. i know our local chamber of commerce would tell you "c'mon on down!" where i lived at the time, Bob sort of ended the summer tourist season. (could be nice if you like it quiet. LOL) and honestly...you know the weather. if it's a strong TS/weak CAT 1 passing over CHH or ACK...eh...bad storm but really not an infrastructure issue. fun to chase and be out in and stuff etc but life goes on quickly, i think. if it's CAT 1/2/3 and heading up into RI or whatever, that's a whole different ballgame out here. cool, thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hubb Dave asked me about inudation in Misquamicut if the current NHC track verified, based on tides, track and slosh, here is base pic, 3-5 foot surge and also 1938. Nice tool you have there Steve (meaning the modeling tool). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 For those of you in CT/LI/RI/MA, here's an outstanding read with a lot of great pictures of the 1938 storm. Check out Horseneck beach... http://library.salve.edu/ace/kit5/lesson4/hurricane1938.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yeah. But everyone should relax with the trend with each model run. Remember when the exact same thing happened with Earl? Just keep that in mind. In any case, it's much better than seeing a trend east, but that could happen in the next 72 hrs. Patience Danielson. Yea, just wait and see.....we know everyone's stance and have a good idea of what needs to take place. Watch and wait...I hope it rips over ORH as a cat 3, personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yeah. But everyone should relax with the trend with each model run. Remember when the exact same thing happened with Earl? Just keep that in mind. In any case, it's much better than seeing a trend east, but that could happen in the next 72 hrs. Patience Danielson. Sorry for asking because I'm trying to remember... did any TPC map show a direct hit on SNE at all from Earl last year? I seem to remember being in the cone, but not the direct path. (it's hard to remember when I started to forget) Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yep, but this one feels different especially post 12z (excl Euro). Pretty outstanding clustering now on a track that will in one way or another involve a lot of us. A track into RI or Fall River/EWB at that strength could be bad news for the Cape in a big ugly way. Popponesset would get demolished, all of Buzzards Bay and the western end of the Canal would be a disaster over by the Maritime Academy. Would probably rival the historic floods from long ago. East over by you in Dennisport my friends have a cottage there...growing up I remember seeing the photos from 1938 when the storm pushed the cottage about 350 yards inland. Bob "almost" did a ton of damage but in areas like Wild Harbors in Falmouth it fell just short of flooding everyone. This one could be much worse? I went down to check my folks place in the Silver Beach area N. Falmouth the day after Bob and Wild Harbor took a pretty damn good beating. I'd hate to see this be worse for them. I called my Dad this morning and told him he better have his 20' Grady White pulled tomorrow based on what the models are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Anymore solid tweets from JB? Figured he might be chuckin some more today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Nice tool you have there Steve (meaning the modeling tool). Yea sure Garth, I know what you mean. ha. Better put sandbags around that basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Buzzards Bay Blowout Barnstable Barn Buster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I went down to check my folks place in the Silver Beach area N. Falmouth the day after Bob and Wild Harbor took a pretty damn good beating. I'd hate to see this be worse for them. I called my Dad this morning and told him he better have his 20' Grady White pulled tomorrow based on what the models are saying. They did wind wise but the water topped in the backyards of people on Alden Road...facing the water. Literally came up just short of the tennis courts, another few feet and it would have flooded most everyone. CMC is right into LI or RI now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Josh, if you are driving in from nyc..... you can avoid all bridges and get to some good chase spots. Take 95 to the foxwoods exit..then follow the signs to westerly and that will take you to route 1.... follow that to 1a and narrangansett is easy to get to from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Sorry for asking because I'm trying to remember... did any TPC map show a direct hit on SNE at all from Earl last year? I seem to remember being in the cone, but not the direct path. (it's hard to remember when I started to forget) Thanks. Nope: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/graphics/al07/loop_5W.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Wow...CMC is west. I hate that model, but still good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Great to see the trend back west today. How often does that happen?Almost everything has come west in some fashion or another...Even the tropical models. Let's get the Euro to do the same. Biggest run of the Euro since the Cubs last won the World Series Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Nope: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/graphics/al07/loop_5W.shtml Thank you - that's what I thought, which is why I'm surprised people are comparing this to Earl. I never thought Earl was ever at risk of being something like what we may be facing this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Great to see the trend back west today. How often does that happen?Almost everything has come west in some fashion or another...Even the tropical models. Let's get the Euro to do the same. Biggest run of the Euro since the Cubs last won the World Series Yesterday's was the biggest of my life, remember lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Wow...CMC is west. I hate that model, but still good to see. HWRF is east of last nights 0z. best I can tell anyway, it's already at 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Wow...CMC is west. I hate that model, but still good to see. What would you rather have? 8-12" rain or a couple hours of 50mph sustained? I kinda like the CC track for the rains.. I don't think winds will be all that impressive inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Are there usually a lot of thunderstorms in hurricanes or just the heavy rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 HWRF is east of last nights 0z. best I can tell anyway, it's already at 75 and curving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 What would you rather have? 8-12" rain or a couple hours of 50mph sustained? I kinda like the CC track for the rains.. I don't think winds will be all that impressive inland Well, Gloria fell trees around here.....all we need is for it track west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Right towards LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 For those of you in CT/LI/RI/MA, here's an outstanding read with a lot of great pictures of the 1938 storm. Check out Horseneck beach... http://library.salve...rricane1938.pdf Look up 31 Brockton St. Falmouth, MA. The water (Green/Great Harbor) came to the front door in Carol. That is the high water mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Sorry for asking because I'm trying to remember... did any TPC map show a direct hit on SNE at all from Earl last year? I seem to remember being in the cone, but not the direct path. (it's hard to remember when I started to forget) Thanks. Well I was referring to models. At one point they went west, but then shifted back east 24 hrs later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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