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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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No unfortunately I only have URI's GSO GIS maps

Ok, I'm sure it would be an incredible sight. Pictures i've seen of Onset, Wareham and Buzzards Bay from 38 and later storms...total floodzilla. For those areas along the western approach to the Canal stage of current will be immense. If we have a west running tide as the storm surge approaches it's going to get really ugly as all the water from Cape Cod Bay pours into the Canal up against the storm surge. East running tide would help to alleviate that but to what degree?

http://wareham-ma.villagesoup.com/news/story/experts-were-due-for-a-hurricane-prepare-ahead-of-time/139262

t600-mainStreet1954Damage.jpg

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I have a flight to Boston next Thursday. Was a serious question. I know it can't be easily answered. I guess using something like Bob could be a useful comparo at least. Assuming they will be open for biz but if it's bad enough maybe not?

yeah it's so hard to say and i hate speculating on that kind of stuff. i know our local chamber of commerce would tell you "c'mon on down!" :lol: where i lived at the time, Bob sort of ended the summer tourist season. (could be nice if you like it quiet. LOL)

and honestly...you know the weather. if it's a strong TS/weak CAT 1 passing over CHH or ACK...eh...bad storm but really not an infrastructure issue. fun to chase and be out in and stuff etc but life goes on quickly, i think.

if it's CAT 1/2/3 and heading up into RI or whatever, that's a whole different ballgame out here.

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came west?

Yeah.

But everyone should relax with the trend with each model run. Remember when the exact same thing happened with Earl? Just keep that in mind.

In any case, it's much better than seeing a trend east, but that could happen in the next 72 hrs. Patience Danielson.

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yeah it's so hard to say and i hate speculating on that kind of stuff. i know our local chamber of commerce would tell you "c'mon on down!" :lol: where i lived at the time, Bob sort of ended the summer tourist season. (could be nice if you like it quiet. LOL)

and honestly...you know the weather. if it's a strong TS/weak CAT 1 passing over CHH or ACK...eh...bad storm but really not an infrastructure issue. fun to chase and be out in and stuff etc but life goes on quickly, i think.

if it's CAT 1/2/3 and heading up into RI or whatever, that's a whole different ballgame out here.

cool, thx

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Yeah.

But everyone should relax with the trend with each model run. Remember when the exact same thing happened with Earl? Just keep that in mind.

In any case, it's much better than seeing a trend east, but that could happen in the next 72 hrs. Patience Danielson.

Yea, just wait and see.....we know everyone's stance and have a good idea of what needs to take place.

Watch and wait...I hope it rips over ORH as a cat 3, personally.

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Yeah.

But everyone should relax with the trend with each model run. Remember when the exact same thing happened with Earl? Just keep that in mind.

In any case, it's much better than seeing a trend east, but that could happen in the next 72 hrs. Patience Danielson.

Sorry for asking because I'm trying to remember... did any TPC map show a direct hit on SNE at all from Earl last year? I seem to remember being in the cone, but not the direct path. (it's hard to remember when I started to forget) :) Thanks.

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Yep, but this one feels different especially post 12z (excl Euro). Pretty outstanding clustering now on a track that will in one way or another involve a lot of us. A track into RI or Fall River/EWB at that strength could be bad news for the Cape in a big ugly way. Popponesset would get demolished, all of Buzzards Bay and the western end of the Canal would be a disaster over by the Maritime Academy. Would probably rival the historic floods from long ago. East over by you in Dennisport my friends have a cottage there...growing up I remember seeing the photos from 1938 when the storm pushed the cottage about 350 yards inland. Bob "almost" did a ton of damage but in areas like Wild Harbors in Falmouth it fell just short of flooding everyone. This one could be much worse?

I went down to check my folks place in the Silver Beach area N. Falmouth the day after Bob and Wild Harbor took a pretty damn good beating. I'd hate to see this be worse for them. I called my Dad this morning and told him he better have his 20' Grady White pulled tomorrow based on what the models are saying.

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I went down to check my folks place in the Silver Beach area N. Falmouth the day after Bob and Wild Harbor took a pretty damn good beating. I'd hate to see this be worse for them. I called my Dad this morning and told him he better have his 20' Grady White pulled tomorrow based on what the models are saying.

They did wind wise but the water topped in the backyards of people on Alden Road...facing the water. Literally came up just short of the tennis courts, another few feet and it would have flooded most everyone.

CMC is right into LI or RI now...

235_100.gif

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Great to see the trend back west today. How often does that happen?Almost everything has come west in some fashion or another...Even the tropical models.

Let's get the Euro to do the same.

Biggest run of the Euro since the Cubs last won the World Series

Yesterday's was the biggest of my life, remember lol

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Wow...CMC is west. I hate that model, but still good to see.

What would you rather have? 8-12" rain or a couple hours of 50mph sustained? I kinda like the CC track for the rains.. I don't think winds will be all that impressive inland

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Sorry for asking because I'm trying to remember... did any TPC map show a direct hit on SNE at all from Earl last year? I seem to remember being in the cone, but not the direct path. (it's hard to remember when I started to forget) :) Thanks.

Well I was referring to models. At one point they went west, but then shifted back east 24 hrs later.

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