OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Biggest Euro run since winter Biggest Euro run since 00z 12/25!!! ... that one will probably never be trumped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 no. the plan that messenger is referencing took years to develop. it's not a decision made at a whim and so many public and private disciplines are at the table aiding in the decision making process. the folks behind the traffic plan have essentially been meeting monthly since the month after 9/11. Yep people that don't live here don't get it. It's a two lane road that is narrower than most. Heck people in Prius' freak driving over it on a normal day because the lanes are narrow. The last time we had to get people off in an emergency it was a diaster in 96. It's a great plan and everyone is involved including Otis. Like you said I know they're already in meetings and when it becomes clearer tonight or thursday I expect they will give a heads up of the day htey plan to implement...and later narrow down the time. The timing on this one is "good" in the sense many will just not come here for the weekend but there are already a lot of people on Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 What were traffic delays to get off the Cape during Bob? How many people live on the Cape? It's not like there are over a million people like we saw in Houston during Rita. i have no idea - it was 20 years ago anyway so... like 225,000+/- year-round but summer population (depending on the source of the data) is 500K to 750K - some even say higher than that with daytrippers included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hey, guys-- besides the 28 and the 6 (leading onto the Cape), what other routes/bridges in SE MA and RI might get closed down before a 'cane? If I'm chasing this, I'll be coming in late Friday night, and I assume that would be early enough-- wouldn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 what are the odds i have to cancel going to cape cod labor day weekend if this hits there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Schwartz Synoptic Seven in effect?? NOGAPS came way west now has LF near HSE CMC stuck at 72 but it's weaker with the trough like the GFS/NAM, it's coming back west too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 So...thunderstorms tomorrow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yep people that don't live here don't get it. It's a two lane road that is narrower than most. Heck people in Prius' freak driving over it on a normal day because the lanes are narrow. The last time we had to get people off in an emergency it was a diaster in 96. It's a great plan and everyone is involved including Otis. Like you said I know they're already in meetings and when it becomes clearer tonight or thursday I expect they will give a heads up of the day htey plan to implement...and later narrow down the time. The timing on this one is "good" in the sense many will just not come here for the weekend but there are already a lot of people on Cape. yeah in theory it's a well-thought out plan. will it work? who knows...this version has never really been enacted so that's up for debate. but they've run countless drills and all of that stuff. agree about timing...there's been plenty of warning etc. could be all moot anyway. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 So much for the right bias with regard to extra tropical transitioning systems, then....more reason to be weary of an east shift. It's possible. Fully tropical systems can definitely have a mind of there own sometimes. I'm leaning heavily to the the global models at this time since they should have a better handling of the upper air pattern. Euro/GGEM/Ukie should all be telling. Also having the Gaps come back E is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hey, guys-- besides the 28 and the 6 (leading onto the Cape), what other routes/bridges in SE MA and RI might get closed down before a 'cane? If I'm chasing this, I'll be coming in late Friday night, and I assume that would be early enough-- wouldn't it? I thought you were going to LI...now the Cape sounds good huh...j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hubb Dave asked me about inudation in Misquamicut if the current NHC track verified, based on tides, track and slosh, here is base pic, 3-5 foot surge and also 1938. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hey, guys-- besides the 28 and the 6 (leading onto the Cape), what other routes/bridges in SE MA and RI might get closed down before a 'cane? If I'm chasing this, I'll be coming in late Friday night, and I assume that would be early enough-- wouldn't it? assuming you are flying in...you'd only have to worry about the two bridges. you can also fly into Hyannis. used to a be pipe dream and very cost prohibitive but there are some reasonable ways to do it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hey, guys-- besides the 28 and the 6 (leading onto the Cape), what other routes/bridges in SE MA and RI might get closed down before a 'cane? If I'm chasing this, I'll be coming in late Friday night, and I assume that would be early enough-- wouldn't it? Thats about it for SE Mass, as far as Rhode Island, you have the Newport Bridge and the Jamestown Verrazzano Bridge are the two big ones that would probably be closed provided high enough winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 assuming you are flying in...you'd only have to worry about the two bridges. OK, cool. I'd be driving in from NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Thats about it for SE Mass, as far as Rhode Island, you have the Newport Bridge and the Jamestown Verrazzano Bridge are the two big ones that would probably be closed provided high enough winds. OK, cool. Those wouldn't shut down until the day of the cyclone, I would think-- correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks like it strengthens Irene all the way up to LI..lol..it's stronger up here than it is down off NC.. WTF? There in lies the problem with looking at movement/development of barotropic systems on baroclinic models. They may have a decent handle on the track, but terrible on speed and intensification/weakening. Hurricanes are totally different animals on baroclinic models, IMHO. --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 what are the odds i have to cancel going to cape cod labor day weekend if this hits there? are you asking a serious question or just being Ian? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 OK, cool. Those wouldn't shut down until the day of the cyclone, I would think-- correct? I don't believe they were in Earl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hey, guys-- besides the 28 and the 6 (leading onto the Cape), what other routes/bridges in SE MA and RI might get closed down before a 'cane? If I'm chasing this, I'll be coming in late Friday night, and I assume that would be early enough-- wouldn't it? The Cape Cod Tunnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Biggest Euro run since 00z 12/25!!! ... that one will probably never be trumped Since Edouard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 OK, cool. Those wouldn't shut down until the day of the cyclone, I would think-- correct? I drove over the bridges last year for Earl maybe 10-12 hours before the expected landfall. That was a weaker storm and projected at the last minute to stay east. So that might have been cutting it close. But I would think Friday night/early saturday morning you should have no problem going over the bridge, as long as the timing stays the way it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 yeah in theory it's a well-thought out plan. will it work? who knows...this version has never really been enacted so that's up for debate. but they've run countless drills and all of that stuff. agree about timing...there's been plenty of warning etc. could be all moot anyway. LOL Yep, but this one feels different especially post 12z (excl Euro). Pretty outstanding clustering now on a track that will in one way or another involve a lot of us. A track into RI or Fall River/EWB at that strength could be bad news for the Cape in a big ugly way. Popponesset would get demolished, all of Buzzards Bay and the western end of the Canal would be a disaster over by the Maritime Academy. Would probably rival the historic floods from long ago. East over by you in Dennisport my friends have a cottage there...growing up I remember seeing the photos from 1938 when the storm pushed the cottage about 350 yards inland. Bob "almost" did a ton of damage but in areas like Wild Harbors in Falmouth it fell just short of flooding everyone. This one could be much worse? I think a big part of this plan is cutting through Otis. Get the traffic destined for 495 over on 28, the Rte 3 traffic over onto Rte 6. By eliminating the need to get over the bridge the new light near the access to the Sagamore Bridge would be left green so they could move a lot of cars over fast. Be good for both of us to keep the chasers advised of what we hear. I'm thinking they'll try to time it for 36 hours and IMO would probably consider closing it down Friday night to prevent people from coming onto the Cape that will only turn around Saturday when it gets bad making things worse...IE if this becomes a more certain situation best to keep people OFF the Cape that don't know what they're getting themselves into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The Cape Cod Tunnel. good point...and the subway system too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Thanks for the responses, guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hubb Dave asked me about inudation in Misquamicut if the current NHC track verified, based on tides, track and slosh, here is base pic, 3-5 foot surge and also 1938. Ginx can you run that same tool for the area around the western edge of the cape cod canal? IE the maritime academy and over the cape side of the canal in that immediate area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 are you asking a serious question or just being Ian? LOL I have a flight to Boston next Thursday. Was a serious question. I know it can't be easily answered. I guess using something like Bob could be a useful comparo at least. Assuming they will be open for biz but if it's bad enough maybe not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Bigger question is, what are we looking at for power outages? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ginx can you run that same tool for the area around the western edge of the cape cod canal? IE the maritime academy and over the cape side of the canal in that immediate area? No unfortunately I only have URI's GSO GIS maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 good point...and the subway system too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ensembles are over Phil's fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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