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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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Oh sorry I wasn't talking about this run, I was talking about what it's actually going to do ;)

I don't understand the synoptics to the degree that you and some others do, nor do I study them very closely, so I'll defer to you on what needs to take place.

I'm not trying to BS anyone, but I still feel it ticks east.

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We def want a weaker trough, although the GFS has been underestimating troughing at times this year. This cool blast that you are having was a torch on the GFS about 7-8 days ago.

That said, nice that it didn't go east. A "+" right there. We'll see what the euro does. Still cautious with these westerlies, however.

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Kev just an FYI, depending on timing there is some talk of bridges being one way at some point if this does appear to be an imminent threat. The emergency plan once initiated will close access to the Cape at the base of both bridges. I imagine that would come sometime Friday night or Saturday.

http://www.mass.gov/...plan&csid=Eeops

Yeah I 'd bet they do that at like noon on Saturday. I'd need to leave my house at like 5:00am.. I hope they don't do it Friday nite

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We def want a weaker trough, although the GFS has been underestimating troughing at times this year. This cool blast that you are having was a torch on the GFS about 7-8 days ago.

That said, nice that it didn't go east. A "+" right there. We'll see what the euro does. Still cautious with these westerlies, however.

Think it was a great sign unless there was inherently something wrong with the ingest on both the NAM and GFS. Similarities start early.

Again to everyone considering a Cape Cod chase...if they feel the threat is bad enough and activate the CCETP you will not be able to get onto the Cape. I have no idea when that would happen, or if it would happen. My guess is no later than Saturday if impact was set for Sunday. If the time comes and you are considering a chase I'd plan on getting to your location 24-48 hours in advance.

http://www.mass.gov/?pageID=eopsterminal&L=3&L0=Home&L1=Public+Safety+Agencies&L2=Massachusetts+Emergency+Management+Agency&sid=Eeops&b=terminalcontent&f=mema_hurricane_cape_cod_emergency_traffic_plan&csid=Eeops

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Kev just an FYI, depending on timing there is some talk of bridges being one way at some point if this does appear to be an imminent threat. The emergency plan once initiated will close access to the Cape at the base of both bridges. I imagine that would come sometime Friday night or Saturday.

http://www.mass.gov/...plan&csid=Eeops

Yup. Happened with Noel, I believe?

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Devastating rainfall for CNE.. gfs drops 8 inches in 12 hours!.. anyone notice that the gfs seems faster too as it hits Delmarva..awt..

There may be 10-20 , 8" is very conservative for a landfalling cane up here, esp moving slowly. :guitar:

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Think it was a great sign unless there was inherently something wrong with the ingest on both the NAM and GFS. Similarities start early.

Again to everyone considering a Cape Cod chase...if they feel the threat is bad enough and activate the CCETP you will not be able to get onto the Cape. I have no idea when that would happen, or if it would happen. My guess is no later than Saturday if impact was set for Sunday. If the time comes and you are considering a chase I'd plan on getting to your location 24-48 hours in advance.

http://www.mass.gov/?pageID=eopsterminal&L=3&L0=Home&L1=Public+Safety+Agencies&L2=Massachusetts+Emergency+Management+Agency&sid=Eeops&b=terminalcontent&f=mema_hurricane_cape_cod_emergency_traffic_plan&csid=Eeops

i talk with some of those folks several times a day and at this point that call won't be made for quite a while. thankfully these folks have some pretty solid plans in place should conditions warrant.

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Yeah I 'd bet they do that at like noon on Saturday. I'd need to leave my house at like 5:00am.. I hope they don't do it Friday nite

Closing Friday night or even Saturday mid-day would be ridiculous. Ever since Katrina politicians and emergency managers fear so much for their jobs they inconvenience a lot of people for reasons that are prematurely unnecessary.

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Closing Friday night or even Saturday mid-day would be ridiculous. Ever since Katrina politicians and emergency managers fear so much for their jobs they inconvenience a lot of people for reasons that are prematurely unnecessary.

no.

the plan that messenger is referencing took years to develop. it's not a decision made at a whim and so many public and private disciplines are at the table aiding in the decision making process. the folks behind the traffic plan have essentially been meeting monthly since the month after 9/11. :lol:

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We made it onto the Cape for Edouard. I think it was an early afternoon crossing. But Edouard track was east and never made landfall. I'm prolly heading down to Newport or Narra bay and not dealing with any bridge closings. Aquidneck Bridge doesn't close does it?

There are 3 bridges onto Aquidneck Island to get to Newport....The bridge least likely to close is the Sakonnet River Bridge....you'd take Route 24 down to get to Newport. The Newport Bridge would close first. But historically they keep these bridges open as long as winds aren't gusting above 50...but times have changed, and because of Katrina the nanny state has increased.

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Looks like it strengthens Irene all the way up to LI..lol..it's stronger up here than it is down off NC.. WTF?

I don't understand why the initial pressure is around 992 mb down near the bahamas when in reality the storm is in the 950s from the recon data?

Also messenger - you should check out the models on wunderground since you can zoom way in on google maps and get much better resolution output than basically any site that I've seen. Really helps when you want to check the exact track on the storm. (also has the ECMWF output at 3 hr intervals)

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no.

the plan that messenger is referencing took years to develop. it's not a decision made at a whim and so many public and private disciplines are at the table aiding in the decision making process. the folks behind the traffic plan have essentially been meeting monthly since the month after 9/11. :lol:

What were traffic delays to get off the Cape during Bob? How many people live on the Cape? It's not like there are over a million people like we saw in Houston during Rita.

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