OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know everyone LOVES to see a massive trough to the west of Irene to drive it straight north, but that's NOT what we need. A LESS amplified trough like the 12z is depicting here is GOOD, NOT PUTRID. It allows the westerlies to remain further north, with higher heights over New England to Nova Scotia. This is NOT your "classic" Long Island Express set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's going canal on this run. I could see that...I think this run is the best case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I like my CC canal-BM call....I want conscensus just to the west of that @ day 4. I'm giving it the canal to ACK or a pube se area right now. Preliminary idea anyways. Hopefully it's more canal or even west. This run looks like FMH area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 TWC continues to hint on the idea of the possibility of tornadoes, I can't say I'm too familiar with hurricances, is it possible for someone to explain or provide a link of the connection between hurricanes and tornadoes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know everyone LOVES to see a massive trough to the west of Irene to drive it straight north, but that's NOT what we need. A LESS amplified trough like the 12z is depicting here is GOOD, NOT PUTRID. It allows the westerlies to remain further north, with higher heights over New England to Nova Scotia. This is NOT your "classic" Long Island Express set up No it's not classic at all which is going to cause weenie fits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know everyone LOVES to see a massive trough to the west of Irene to drive it straight north, but that's NOT what we need. A LESS amplified trough like the 12z is depicting here is GOOD, NOT PUTRID. It allows the westerlies to remain further north, with higher heights over New England to Nova Scotia. This is NOT your "classic" Long Island Express set up Far enough N to take it over the canal, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Narragannsett Nailer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know everyone LOVES to see a massive trough to the west of Irene to drive it straight north, but that's NOT what we need. A LESS amplified trough like the 12z is depicting here is GOOD, NOT PUTRID. It allows the westerlies to remain further north, with higher heights over New England to Nova Scotia. This is NOT your "classic" Long Island Express set up I think Norcross was offering this last night on TWC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks like the GFS 90-96 is able to stem the tide and pull it into the general track cone over LI or into RI? Trough is maybe just strong enough just in time. Def a little west, impact somewhere in MA, maybe RI border? Low res graphics. Bad storm, pretty much the 11am NHC track or maybe a little east of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 TWC continues to hint on the idea of the possibility of tornadoes, I can't say I'm too familiar with hurricances, is it possible for someone to explain or provide a link of the connection between hurricanes and tornadoes? You want to get on the right side of the circulation to get in on the possible spin up tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Wagons are coming back west Looks like ultimate landfall is Block Island or near/just E of the MA/RI border. Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm giving it the canal to ACK or a pube se area right now. Preliminary idea anyways. Hopefully it's more canal or even west. This run looks like FMH area. I agree that se of ACK is unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 big hit this run on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Weenie post but: nice buzzsaw qpf appearance on the 12z gfs VA to SNE trek. Bob-like. This could literally be a Bob-like redux with perhaps a larger more intact wind field, at least if the gfs holds any solid ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Def a little west, impact somewhere in MA, maybe RI border? Low res graphics. Bad storm, pretty much the 11am NHC track or maybe a little east of it. GFS has 960mb going over canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Far enough N to take it over the canal Montauk, sure. Sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know everyone LOVES to see a massive trough to the west of Irene to drive it straight north, but that's NOT what we need. A LESS amplified trough like the 12z is depicting here is GOOD, NOT PUTRID. It allows the westerlies to remain further north, with higher heights over New England to Nova Scotia. This is NOT your "classic" Long Island Express set up It's a putrid trough but so long as the high stays tough to the east that's not a bad thing. It wasn't strong enough in earlier runs to make a difference and given the two I'd rather have a weaker trough further north than a trough not strong enough that boots the system east. NAM/GFS both agree, the second trough is weaker/north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 958 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hey Scooter...on that type of track....would there be decent winds over interior SNE? I could care less about rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 big hit this run on the GFS Right up my fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 IF IF IF this general track happens..I'm heading to FMH early Saturday morning . No way in hell i am missing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Buzzards Bay Blowout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm giving it the canal to ACK or a pube se area right now. Preliminary idea anyways. Hopefully it's more canal or even west. This run looks like FMH area. been on a couple calls this morning...been leaning 40-50 miles either side of HYA as my midpoint with any heavier weight to the SE side of HYA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hey Scooter...on that type of track....would ther ebe decent winds over interior SNE? I could care less about rain Well there would be some good winds I would think..I mean it's not hauling ne just yet which helps you. But I would not want to be any farther west then you. Maybe 50moh gust? It's hard to say because these things behave very differently then regular storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Sounds about right Well, take it up w Scott...I'm not looking at the output...maybe it does go through there, but he said it goes over the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's a putrid trough but so long as the high stays tough to the east that's not a bad thing. It wasn't strong enough in earlier runs to make a difference and given the two I'd rather have a weaker trough further north than a trough not strong enough that boots the system east. NAM/GFS both agree, the second trough is weaker/north. YES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 may be road tripping to RI or SE MA this weekend....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 would be nuts for this to varify, wouldn't have to leave the house to get a good show. don't think the dogs will like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Well, take it up w Scott...I'm not looking at the output...maybe it does go through there, but he said it goes over the canal. Oh sorry I wasn't talking about this run, I was talking about what it's actually going to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 IF IF IF this general track happens..I'm heading to FMH early Saturday morning . No way in hell i am missing this Kev just an FYI, depending on timing there is some talk of bridges being one way at some point if this does appear to be an imminent threat. The emergency plan once initiated will close access to the Cape at the base of both bridges. I imagine that would come sometime Friday night or Saturday. http://www.mass.gov/?pageID=eopsterminal&L=3&L0=Home&L1=Public+Safety+Agencies&L2=Massachusetts+Emergency+Management+Agency&sid=Eeops&b=terminalcontent&f=mema_hurricane_cape_cod_emergency_traffic_plan&csid=Eeops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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