MarkO Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 12z gfs west of 00z through 24 not sure to make of this. Wasn't the NAM west too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Um, this is actually coming in quite a bit west so far. Quite a change here from 00z. Through 39 hours a good 50-75 mi further west...and some stark differences over Canada with a slower trough...probably accounting for less of a move north. from main thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 not sure to make of this. Wasn't the NAM west too? I don't look at that thing, esp for tropics..not sure 12z gfs versus 06z gfs...storm appears to be around 50 miles SSW @ 00z Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It doesn't look all that west yet. If anything a little slower and ssw of 06z through hr 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 from main thread slightly slower, maybe a little more amplified? Seems to be good news <<edit>> coem to think of it weren't the slower models more OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Um, this is actually coming in quite a bit west so far. Quite a change here from 00z. Through 39 hours a good 50-75 mi further west...and some stark differences over Canada with a slower trough...probably accounting for less of a move north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It doesn't look all that west yet. If anything a little slower and ssw of 06z through hr 42. Same scenario as the NAM. First trough is weaker/faster/less influence. So it's further WSW/SW through the first 48. Second trough on the GFS vs the 0z GFS is either weaker or slower, crude graphics make it tough to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Pretty big changes over Canada and the northern tier. S/w ridging is much broader across Ontario and Quebec at hr48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 BOOOIIINNGGG Seriously! Looks like it's stabilizing some around hr 48. Still west by a decent amount. If anything this will end up looking more like last night's 00z Euro I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 BOOOIIINNGGG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks generally south of 06z, and WSW of 00z through hr54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The HP in the central Atlantic is a bit stronger so far, and the shortwave over the canadian prairies is a bit slower. With this rather anomalous pattern I wonder if its the strength of that atlantic ridge that's going to be the determining factor here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 BOOOIIINNGGG Pants off on the couch yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks generally south of 06z, and WSW of 00z through hr54. Yeah it looks a hair south of 06z to me at hr 60 as compared to hr 66 of 06z. Nothing notable to me just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 looks like center will pass over outer banks with this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The second trough is weaker and the main vorticity with it is much further NE in Canada with no lobe even really extending down to the border of any significance. Wouldn't think it would have much of an influence in pushing the stom further east unless it does something dramatic beyond 60 hours. IE, why wouldn't it stay west of the 0z track with that trough so far north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Pretty big changes over Canada and the northern tier. S/w ridging is much broader across Ontario and Quebec at hr48 Expressway opening up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks like center just a hair east of HSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Barely... it seems to have turned NNE already at hour 57 By 72 I'd say it's already NNE and the trough looks putrid up north. Was hoping to see it start to dig some otherwise it may not allow for much of a window up north??? Thoughts? Thinking back to the hurricane models, slower models in general ended up getting slammed east. That's maybe where the GFS is about to go post 72? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks like center just a hair east of HSE. Actually east by maybe 30 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 By 72 I'd say it's already NNE and the trough looks putrid up north. Was hoping to see it start to dig some otherwise it may not allow for much of a window up north??? Thoughts? Thinking back to the hurricane models, slower models in general ended up getting slammed east. That's maybe where the GFS is about to go post 72? OK, yeah, nevermind 78 looks pretty big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Expressway opening up? Would allow a more northerly jog before heading off to the E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 This may be close to 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Would allow a more northerly jog before heading off to the E. Tight squeeze, flow trying to sharpen at 84, but it's still pretty flat compared to the 0z GFS once you get up into the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 This may be close to 06z. I like my CC canal-BM call....I want conscensus just to the west of that @ day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I like my CC canal-BM call....I want conscensus just to the west of that @ day 4. I like that track. Maximizes rainfall for us. The HVN pipe dream isn't going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I like my CC canal-BM call....I want conscensus just to the west of that @ day 4. It's going canal on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 This may be close to 06z. It's tucked in closer than the 06z as well as the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks like the GFS 90-96 is able to stem the tide and pull it into the general track cone over LI or into RI? Trough is maybe just strong enough just in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Very much like 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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