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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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Um, this is actually coming in quite a bit west so far. Quite a change here from 00z. Through 39 hours a good 50-75 mi further west...and some stark differences over Canada with a slower trough...probably accounting for less of a move north.

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It doesn't look all that west yet. If anything a little slower and ssw of 06z through hr 42.

Same scenario as the NAM. First trough is weaker/faster/less influence. So it's further WSW/SW through the first 48. Second trough on the GFS vs the 0z GFS is either weaker or slower, crude graphics make it tough to tell.

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The second trough is weaker and the main vorticity with it is much further NE in Canada with no lobe even really extending down to the border of any significance.

Wouldn't think it would have much of an influence in pushing the stom further east unless it does something dramatic beyond 60 hours. IE, why wouldn't it stay west of the 0z track with that trough so far north?

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Barely... it seems to have turned NNE already at hour 57

By 72 I'd say it's already NNE and the trough looks putrid up north. Was hoping to see it start to dig some otherwise it may not allow for much of a window up north??? Thoughts?

Thinking back to the hurricane models, slower models in general ended up getting slammed east. That's maybe where the GFS is about to go post 72?

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By 72 I'd say it's already NNE and the trough looks putrid up north. Was hoping to see it start to dig some otherwise it may not allow for much of a window up north??? Thoughts?

Thinking back to the hurricane models, slower models in general ended up getting slammed east. That's maybe where the GFS is about to go post 72?

OK, yeah, nevermind :whistle: 78 looks pretty big

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