CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hard to ignore the GFDL and WRF Well you can't ignore anything now, just gotta go by what your gut and pattern dictate for a feel as to what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hard to ignore the GFDL and WRF Erm, yes it is. Both have been terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Erm, yes it is. Both have been terrible. HWRF has been the best statistical model so far as far as error by miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Well you can't ignore anything now, just gotta go by what your gut and pattern dictate for a feel as to what will happen. The big concern for me was the excellent consensus and trend away from nc... Even now east of hse. That does not bode well for a li/ct track in this synoptic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Well you can't ignore anything now, just gotta go by what your gut and pattern dictate for a feel as to what will happen. Pattern says just about anything is still on the table..It all depends on that 2nd trough and how deep it is and where it is..as far as flattening the top of the ridge in the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 HWRF has been the best statistical model so far as far as error by miles. You said GFDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Am I wrong or are just about every model and the NHC official track still showing a massive hit either in LI or over SE MA? I understand there's an expectation of an E trend as we get closer but it seems like the models haven't shifted a ton in the last 24 hours and consensus is for a SNE hit with the NHC even upping the expected intensity to 85 mph* when it hits up here which needless to say would be a huge problem. The only issue with wind I would anticipate (coast line excluded ) would be that there a a lot of trees that have been waiting 20 years for a cane to fall. natures tree trimmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 My money is on the non issuance of watches outside of the canal, at any point. Flood watches galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Flood watches galore. Shawsheen spillover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Even so slight nudge west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hard to ignore the GFDL and WRF The latter is a CT River Slasher. 68.8/62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I dont think the connecticut river would be a problem for western ma the concern would be more for the westfield river The latter is a CT River Slasher. 68.8/62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Erm, yes it is. Both have been terrible. Agreed, been too far west for days. Keep this in perspective, we keep talking about day 4 and day 5 error... The 11pm NHC forecast from saturday night placed the tropical storm coming ashore in SE Cuba 8pm Tuesday. It was 240 miles NE, 70 hour error was almost 240-250 miles. That continued through about Sunday and early Monday, error now at 3-4 days assuming the 12-24 hour forecasts are decent is down around 100 or so miles. Starting to see some stabalization in the NHC forecast plots after a really bad start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Even so slight nudge west Of note, for the most part the further east models are slower....system doesn't get as far north with trough 1 in those models I'd assume. Faster at 120 is further west into NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Decent bump west on those cane models..nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Well now I went to a concern of my downstairs becoming an indoor pool, instead of three maples crushing my Maxima...although that could still happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The big concern for me was the excellent consensus and trend away from nc... Even now east of hse. That does not bode well for a li/ct track in this synoptic setup. HSE is key...if it can pass over HSE, then it had a shot of maybe RI or se mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Perfect recipe for barrier beach blowout, no land interaction to speak of,New track is right over Misquamicut state beach, would be a disaster in RI Narry Bay, Buzz Bay with that track at 85 MPH with huge tides already in place. Bad timing...any way to tell what sort if surge could be possible - not expected, but worst case? Bonnet Shores could be ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Of note, for the most part the further east models are slower....system doesn't get as far north with trough 1 in those models I'd assume. Faster at 120 is further west into NE. another tool NHC is using http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/gfsenkf/fimens/2011082400/10mwind_FIM-G7_09L_2011082400.html http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/gfsenkf/fimens/2011082400/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm thinking something from near the canal to just offshore of ack right now as the potential target, but that certainly could change. The BM is possible too...Ryan may be on the money with that. At least the 12z models weren't over Portugal, but spread increased? Hopefully this goes like what the NHC had. Fingers crossed...even if I miss it. Ryan have fun in NYC...don't go into the booths where you pay a quarter for some fun...lol. Unfortunately most of those booths at this point are gone. When I was 14 in 1991 I put a quarter in expecting to see a porno and about 7 good looking naked women appeared right in front of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Bad timing...any way to tell what sort if surge could be possible - not expected, but worst case? Bonnet Shores could be ugly I thought I saw something that said 3 to 6 feet surge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 HSE is key...if it can pass over HSE, then it had a shot of maybe RI or se mass. ECT RI has been a bullseye for a lot of runs, could see it there or CC canal. Gonna be interesting how the rest of the runs go the next 24, sure is getting intense though, nice sat shots tonight at sunset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If my place is close to the eye does that mean i get heavy rain and heavy wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Even so slight nudge west Is the black track the mean? I'm not versed on these models so a little education would go a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Is the black track the mean? I'm not versed on these models so a little education would go a long way. I believe the black track is the official NHC forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 HSE is key...if it can pass over HSE, then it had a shot of maybe RI or se mass. Exactly. New GFS doing what the NAM did early. Storm is initially further SW than earlier modeled last night. That to me would mean a recurve east of HSE later in this run of the GFS? Unless the second trough is stronger and can grab it, NAM said no way, but it's the NAM outside of 36 hours/useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I dont think the connecticut river would be a problem for western ma the concern would be more for the westfield river I was referring to the track, not any flooding. Though I expect the areas prone to it in the spring might still have some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Irene seems to have wobble left.. anyone else seeing that? about to cross 74W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 12z gfs west of 00z through 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If my place is close to the eye does that mean i get heavy rain and heavy wind? If you're in the eye, expect picnic weather if you don't mind the humidity, maybe a few lost tropical birds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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