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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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NAM blows. First trough is weaker, storm doesn't is slower/west initially, then it gets turned even sooner than the 0z run.

The rain with this first trough could get interesting too, first bits of tropical moisture getting worked on by the trough could be some gully washers even Friday?

Second trough is a little weaker/faster....whole systems blows bollucks on the NAM. Worse than the 0z for sure.

I got lambasted for posting the Nam at 84 hours for a tropical system, no we are jumping off the ledge because of it?

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Save yourself some time and stop there.

I got lambasted for posting the Nam at 84 hours for a tropical system, no we are jumping off the ledge because of it?

Bob/Snow, the changes are very early on, inside of 12 or 18 hours across the Lakes that matter. Typical, we see it all the time in the cold season as systems approach the MS Valley/get east of it. Everything else that happens after that is just as a result, system is further southwest, doesn't get drawn up as fast and by the time it gets further north it's trajectory is already further east. IMO same correction in general we can follow in the NHC track for days on end.

http://www.nhc.noaa....9/loop_5W.shtml

In the later stages sure, it's the NAM! But providing it didn't burp at 0h-24h it's probably a harbinger of what is to come in the 12z. JMHO I think?

Regardless, the new NHC advisory "THE UPDATED NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED EASTWARD AT 96 AND

120 HOURS AND LIES BETWEEN THOSE TWO CONSENSUS AIDS."

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love the 11am update by the NHC, takes the center of the storm right over Seekonk, oh if only. I live in the same neighborhood I did when Bob came through.. as soon as I moved there I always thought it was good ju ju for a future cane.

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We get to watch the rather hilarious process begin of hurricane watches up and down the east coast only never to verify!

Tough deal for them. The motion over the next 12-24 hours is going to be key, needs to get NW. I don't care much about the NAM outside of 24 hours but it'll be interesting to see what the other models do with trough 1 and how it plays into the position of Irene in 24 hours.

realistically there has been a never ending bend east in the models...

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We had watches all the way back to NYC even for Earl. There will be watches from NC-ME, promise.

Probably barring a big trend east.

Cweat is right about the next 24 hours being important. The closer to nc this passes the better for us. Ideally id like it to tuck inside hse.

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Defiantly feels like a Earl / winter storm bust in these parts today. All the hype yesterday followed by the gut punch this morning. At least we will be ready for the winter mayhem.

Am I wrong or are just about every model and the NHC official track still showing a massive hit either in LI or over SE MA? I understand there's an expectation of an E trend as we get closer but it seems like the models haven't shifted a ton in the last 24 hours and consensus is for a SNE hit with the NHC even upping the expected intensity to 85 mph* when it hits up here which needless to say would be a huge problem.

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I'm thinking something from near the canal to just offshore of ack right now as the potential target, but that certainly could change. The BM is possible too...Ryan may be on the money with that. At least the 12z models weren't over Portugal, but spread increased? Hopefully this goes like what the NHC had. Fingers crossed...even if I miss it.

Ryan have fun in NYC...don't go into the booths where you pay a quarter for some fun...lol.

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We had watches all the way back to NYC even for Earl. There will be watches from NC-ME, promise.

Well, you qualified your statement as "hurricane" watches, which is what I was alluding to...should have made that clear.

Perhaps cane watches will make it a bit past the cc canal, they will never convert to warnings there.

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I'm thinking something from near the canal to just offshore of ack right now as the potential target, but that certainly could change. The BM is possible too...Ryan may be on the money with that. At least the 12z models weren't over Portugal, but spread increased? Hopefully this goes like what the NHC had. Fingers crossed...even if I miss it.

Ryan have fun in NYC...don't go into the booths where you pay a quarter for some fun...lol.

Lol on 95 in Greenwich in traffic. About as awesome as the east trend

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