DomNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm pretty sure Kevin ran that HWRF out of his basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Wundergrounds satellite images have flipped to visible (probably late to this party) but Irene sure is a sexy girl isn't she? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Our member from Halifax might have an interesting day, for sure. I guess this might satisfy your QPF fetish. Man--another small jog east and Im' in the screw zone.. i guess it's going east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I like my call You're too far west--but you might get the "closest to the pin award". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Also I know this is a moot point but Boston sits at roughly 71 degrees W and Irene is currently at roughly 73 degrees W so I guess you can say that she has already passed us by.....sorta. Also got a question. what is the magic number that we are looking for in terms of longitude before she makes her turn? 75/76/77 degrees W? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The morning GFDL/HWRF...I really can't believe the storm will track N into Canada as they predict. Really got to believe they aren't grasping the northern trough and are probably not very valuable at this point. JMHO, which is worth nothing. GFS/Euro are in decent agreement heading into the 12z suite, I'll go with that rough idea over the west outliers. You could flip that argument and say that maybe the globals/us models aren't meant to handle this storm of such deep magnitude whereas the hurricane models are.. maybe a storm that's 930mb will interact with the trough differently than what the globals portray as a960 MB storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm pretty sure Kevin ran that HWRF out of his basement. Lol. He dropped the center 15 miles to the SE of me. He wants me to get my qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The morning GFDL/HWRF...I really can't believe the storm will track N into Canada as they predict. Really got to believe they aren't grasping the northern trough and are probably not very valuable at this point. JMHO, which is worth nothing. GFS/Euro are in decent agreement heading into the 12z suite, I'll go with that rough idea over the west outliers. Euro is notably west of the GFS, with a more amplified, and slower trough over the Midwest Sunday evening. I would say the Euro represents the western edge of what I think is a plausible solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Great Accuweather has a headline saying "New England get ready for Hurricane Irene"...we can officially cancel the storm now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Great Accuweather has a headline saying "New England get ready for Hurricane Irene"...we can officially cancel the storm now... Storm is not cancelled unless cantore is in Chatham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 we can officially cancel the storm now... Just about everybody here already has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Is there something similar between our Hurricane threads and mid-atlantic snow storm threads or am I imagining it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Just about everybody here already has. Well if I have to I will get in my row boat and start rowing to the BM...I will not miss this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 We like..we like long time Didn't see this posted anywhere, but the 6z GFS EnKF is west of the ops by a good amount. It's the exact same model physics as the operational GFS, it just uses a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter initialization scheme versus standard 3DVAR for the operational. It's been performing well this year in the WPAC - better than the ops. dtk can provide more info if he's around today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Well if I have to I will get in my row boat and start rowing to the BM...I will not miss this storm... Take lots of pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Euro is notably west of the GFS, with a more amplified, and slower trough over the Midwest Sunday evening. I would say the Euro represents the western edge of what I think is a plausible solution Decent agreement though for that time range. More amplified..in winter the Euro would be more right but warm season RTBS. Interesting perhaps that the new NAM is tucking in a little W or WSW of the 24 hours 0z forecast from both the NAM/GFS at h12 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Is there any place where we can find out what the surface winds are like right now in the Bahamas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Man--another small jog east and Im' in the screw zone.. i guess it's going east. Give me the "screw zone". Right now me and Steve are shown to be getting pounded with rain, something my basment does not need more of. When it comes to rain, I pray for the screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I think its pretty amazing that the NAM can form an eye like that on the simulated radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know it's the NAM, interesting that it's south of the GFS position at 24 hours versus the old 36 hour GFS, and also a tick that way or even SW of it's old position. If a real tick, would have a signficant impact later in the runs I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know it's the NAM, interesting that it's south of the GFS position at 24 hours versus the old 36 hour GFS, and also a tick that way or even SW of it's old position. If a real tick, would have a signficant impact later in the runs I think. Impacts? Such as? More of a hit in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Impacts? Such as? More of a hit in SNE? Absolutely no idea. By 36 hours it's more muted but still a few miles west of the old NAM, maybe SW. At the same time it's a little weaker/north with the first trough..probably as a result. less interaction? Who knows, but we're getting inside that 36-48 hour window for the first trough where the global models should pull it together on the depth/timing of at least trough 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Our member from Halifax might have an interesting day, for sure. I guess this might satisfy your QPF fetish. Jesus, if that holds true then I'm going to be spending tomorrow getting things off the ground of a basement that has flooded once in 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The NAM really dumps rain on us Friday...almost looks like some sort of convective problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The NAM really dumps rain on us Friday...almost looks like some sort of convective problem? Where are you seeing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Where are you seeing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm moving my daughter into Towson on Saturday. Guess it might be kinda of crappy down there. I'll then be coming back Saturday night. Perhaps a long drive either in or hopefully, ahead of the rain. Should be leaving by 8:00p.m. Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Shocking turn of events. CC canal-BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 NAM blows. First trough is weaker, storm doesn't is slower/west initially, then it gets turned even sooner than the 0z run. The rain with this first trough could get interesting too, first bits of tropical moisture getting worked on by the trough could be some gully washers even Friday? Second trough is a little weaker/faster....whole systems blows bollucks on the NAM. Worse than the 0z for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 First time it's been posted INTERESTS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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