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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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Also I know this is a moot point but Boston sits at roughly 71 degrees W and Irene is currently at roughly 73 degrees W so I guess you can say that she has already passed us by.....sorta. Also got a question. what is the magic number that we are looking for in terms of longitude before she makes her turn? 75/76/77 degrees W?

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The morning GFDL/HWRF...I really can't believe the storm will track N into Canada as they predict. Really got to believe they aren't grasping the northern trough and are probably not very valuable at this point. JMHO, which is worth nothing.

GFS/Euro are in decent agreement heading into the 12z suite, I'll go with that rough idea over the west outliers.

You could flip that argument and say that maybe the globals/us models aren't meant to handle this storm of such deep magnitude whereas the hurricane models are.. maybe a storm that's 930mb will interact with the trough differently than what the globals portray as a960 MB storm

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The morning GFDL/HWRF...I really can't believe the storm will track N into Canada as they predict. Really got to believe they aren't grasping the northern trough and are probably not very valuable at this point. JMHO, which is worth nothing.

GFS/Euro are in decent agreement heading into the 12z suite, I'll go with that rough idea over the west outliers.

Euro is notably west of the GFS, with a more amplified, and slower trough over the Midwest Sunday evening. I would say the Euro represents the western edge of what I think is a plausible solution

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We like..we like long time

Didn't see this posted anywhere, but the 6z GFS EnKF is west of the ops by a good amount.

RdGvs.gif

It's the exact same model physics as the operational GFS, it just uses a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter initialization scheme versus standard 3DVAR for the operational. It's been performing well this year in the WPAC - better than the ops. dtk can provide more info if he's around today.

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Euro is notably west of the GFS, with a more amplified, and slower trough over the Midwest Sunday evening. I would say the Euro represents the western edge of what I think is a plausible solution

Decent agreement though for that time range. More amplified..in winter the Euro would be more right but warm season RTBS.

Interesting perhaps that the new NAM is tucking in a little W or WSW of the 24 hours 0z forecast from both the NAM/GFS at h12 12z

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I know it's the NAM, interesting that it's south of the GFS position at 24 hours versus the old 36 hour GFS, and also a tick that way or even SW of it's old position.

If a real tick, would have a signficant impact later in the runs I think.

Impacts? Such as? More of a hit in SNE?

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Impacts? Such as? More of a hit in SNE?

Absolutely no idea. By 36 hours it's more muted but still a few miles west of the old NAM, maybe SW.

At the same time it's a little weaker/north with the first trough..probably as a result. less interaction?

Who knows, but we're getting inside that 36-48 hour window for the first trough where the global models should pull it together on the depth/timing of at least trough 1.

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Our member from Halifax might have an interesting day, for sure.

I guess this might satisfy your QPF fetish.

06zgfsp72132.gif

Jesus, if that holds true then I'm going to be spending tomorrow getting things off the ground of a basement that has flooded once in 20 years.

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NAM blows. First trough is weaker, storm doesn't is slower/west initially, then it gets turned even sooner than the 0z run.

The rain with this first trough could get interesting too, first bits of tropical moisture getting worked on by the trough could be some gully washers even Friday?

Second trough is a little weaker/faster....whole systems blows bollucks on the NAM. Worse than the 0z for sure.

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