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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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Should we be putting putting more stock /faith in the tropical models or the dynamic models or the ensembles right now? And please no "take a blend" answers

Take a blend. lol

Really though, tropical models handle some factors better, but in the last few runs of the GFDL/HWRF you can see them take this due north into NNE. That's not going to happen. They seem to be unable to handle westerlies at this latitude. So I'd say an overall consensus is still the way to go.

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Take a blend. lol

Really though, tropical models handle some factors better, but in the last few runs of the GFDL/HWRF you can see them take this due north into NNE. That's not going to happen. They seem to be unable to handle westerlies at this latitude. So I'd say an overall consensus is still the way to go.

GFDL went west lol

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Should we be putting putting more stock /faith in the tropical models or the dynamic models or the ensembles right now? And please no "take a blend" answers

Take a blend. lol

Really though, tropical models handle some factors better, but in the last few runs of the GFDL/HWRF you can see them take this due north into NNE. That's not going to happen. They seem to be unable to handle westerlies at this latitude. So I'd say an overall consensus is still the way to go.

You realize that TVCA TVCN etc are blends right?

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I honestly kind of feel like a Dbag looking at the GFS QPF printout and getting excited. Hoping for 9''+ of rain here...the hell is wrong with me?

I'd like to see what it drops for rainfall down in NC.. I think whatever they get, translates well up here

I love how this thing crawls too.. garden pots cancel?

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PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

917 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 28 2011 - 12Z WED AUG 31 2011

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE TO AFFECT THE NC OUTER BANKS INTO THE

NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...

DUE IN PART TO MORE FREQUENT SAMPLING OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS SURROUNDING HURRICANE IRENE BY MULTIPLE AIRPLANE

PLATFORMS ALONG WITH CONTINUATION OF SUPPLEMENTAL UPPER AIR RAOBS

ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS EVERY 6 HOURS...THE MODEL

SOLUTION SPREAD FOR THE TRACK OF IRENE HAS BECOME SMALLER AND

SMALLER...AND IN FACT COULD BE CONSIDERED EXCELLENT FOR THE LONGER

RANGES. ONE OF THE LARGEST REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MEDIUM

RANGE PERIOD HOWEVER IS THE EXACT SPEED AND STRENGTH OF A STRONG

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN CANADA...WHICH IS

EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY DAY 3/SAT AND PICK UP

IRENE. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE NEARLY CONVERGED WITH THE DETAILS OF

THIS TROUGH...WITH THE GFS ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SUPPORTED BY

THE CANADIAN...THUS ACCELERATING IRENE NORTHWARD INTO THE

NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF.

HOWEVER...RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY WITH THE MORE UNCERTAIN HIGHER

LATITUDE FLOW IS TO BE EXPECTED...WITH RECENT GFS/ECMWF 4-CYCLE

LAGGED AVERAGE FORECASTS SHOWING 500 MB HEIGHT VARIABILITIES

AVERAGING 50 TO 70 DECAMETERS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT

LAKES...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DIFFERING INFLUENCES ON IRENE. BUT FOR

NOW...THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH

IRENE TO USE NEARLY EQUALLY FOR THE PRELIMINARY PRESSURES/FRONTS

FOR DAYS 3-7. THIS APPROACH WORKS WELL FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL

CONUS AS WELL...AS THE STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC IS

EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES OF

INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WHICH ARE BEST RESOLVED WITH AN

INTERMEDIATE APPROACH. ONE DIFFERENCE SEEN IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE

IS FOR GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DAYS 6/7...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER IN

EJECTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST

COMPARED TO THE GFS...WHICH THEN LEADS TO GROWING DIFFERENCES

DOWNSTREAM. WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN AND THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS

PROVIDING GOOD SUPPORT FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...WILL LIKELY ABANDON

THE ECMWF ALTOGETHER STARTING DAY 6...AND INSTEAD BLEND THE 00Z

GFS/GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR DAYS 6/7.

JAMES/SCHICHTEL

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Personally my gut is its a 50/50 this goes west of the BM. True the eastward adjustment has slowed, but models tend to go east with recurving storms combined with the historical bias with this storm. Only thing that could change it is IMHO is some kind of capture scenario.

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PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

917 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 28 2011 - 12Z WED AUG 31 2011

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE TO AFFECT THE NC OUTER BANKS INTO THE

NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...

DUE IN PART TO MORE FREQUENT SAMPLING OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS SURROUNDING HURRICANE IRENE BY MULTIPLE AIRPLANE

PLATFORMS ALONG WITH CONTINUATION OF SUPPLEMENTAL UPPER AIR RAOBS

ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS EVERY 6 HOURS...THE MODEL

SOLUTION SPREAD FOR THE TRACK OF IRENE HAS BECOME SMALLER AND

SMALLER...AND IN FACT COULD BE CONSIDERED EXCELLENT FOR THE LONGER

RANGES. ONE OF THE LARGEST REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MEDIUM

RANGE PERIOD HOWEVER IS THE EXACT SPEED AND STRENGTH OF A STRONG

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN CANADA...WHICH IS

EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY DAY 3/SAT AND PICK UP

IRENE. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE NEARLY CONVERGED WITH THE DETAILS OF

THIS TROUGH...WITH THE GFS ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SUPPORTED BY

THE CANADIAN...THUS ACCELERATING IRENE NORTHWARD INTO THE

NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF.

HOWEVER...RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY WITH THE MORE UNCERTAIN HIGHER

LATITUDE FLOW IS TO BE EXPECTED...WITH RECENT GFS/ECMWF 4-CYCLE

LAGGED AVERAGE FORECASTS SHOWING 500 MB HEIGHT VARIABILITIES

AVERAGING 50 TO 70 DECAMETERS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT

LAKES...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DIFFERING INFLUENCES ON IRENE. BUT FOR

NOW...THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH

IRENE TO USE NEARLY EQUALLY FOR THE PRELIMINARY PRESSURES/FRONTS

FOR DAYS 3-7. THIS APPROACH WORKS WELL FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL

CONUS AS WELL...AS THE STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC IS

EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES OF

INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WHICH ARE BEST RESOLVED WITH AN

INTERMEDIATE APPROACH. ONE DIFFERENCE SEEN IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE

IS FOR GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DAYS 6/7...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER IN

EJECTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST

COMPARED TO THE GFS...WHICH THEN LEADS TO GROWING DIFFERENCES

DOWNSTREAM. WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN AND THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS

PROVIDING GOOD SUPPORT FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...WILL LIKELY ABANDON

THE ECMWF ALTOGETHER STARTING DAY 6...AND INSTEAD BLEND THE 00Z

GFS/GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR DAYS 6/7.

JAMES/SCHICHTEL

The morning GFDL/HWRF...I really can't believe the storm will track N into Canada as they predict. Really got to believe they aren't grasping the northern trough and are probably not very valuable at this point. JMHO, which is worth nothing.

GFS/Euro are in decent agreement heading into the 12z suite, I'll go with that rough idea over the west outliers.

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The morning GFDL/HWRF...I really can't believe the storm will track N into Canada as they predict. Really got to believe they aren't grasping the northern trough and are probably not very valuable at this point. JMHO, which is worth nothing.

GFS/Euro are in decent agreement heading into the 12z suite, I'll go with that rough idea over the west outliers.

Agreed.

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