Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The amount of times runs have shown the very typical end Of LI through ECT through Bos is interesting. What will be gut wrenching is when this is off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 SLIIIDE to the left...SLIIIDE to the right...Two hops this time (BOMP BOMP)...Take it back now y'all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Another tick east AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Sort of a wash compared to 6z, uncertainty wider. Figures as we get closer the inconsistency would widen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Another tick east AWT 20 minutes ago you posted you wouldn't be surprised for a west tick loser go to nyc! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Another tick east AWT ya think? looked kinda eh to me in terms of change...with the exception of those left hookers there (being 2 not 3) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Another tick east AWT Nice clustering over SE MA. Couple outliers E and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Whatever the orange model is please and FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Sort of a wash compared to 6z, uncertainty wider. Figures as we get closer the inconsistency would widen Yeah agreed the more I look. Wider uncertainty no real trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Should we be putting putting more stock /faith in the tropical models or the dynamic models or the ensembles right now? And please no "take a blend" answers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 20 minutes ago you posted you wouldn't be surprised for a west tick loser go to nyc! I know need to get out of here. Slept well last night with a 5 a.m. wake up to check the new cone (it's a disease) so hopefully I can stay up tonight for the 00z runs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Should we be putting putting more stock /faith in the tropical models or the dynamic models or the ensembles right now? And please no "take a blend" answers Take a blend. lol Really though, tropical models handle some factors better, but in the last few runs of the GFDL/HWRF you can see them take this due north into NNE. That's not going to happen. They seem to be unable to handle westerlies at this latitude. So I'd say an overall consensus is still the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Take a blend. lol Really though, tropical models handle some factors better, but in the last few runs of the GFDL/HWRF you can see them take this due north into NNE. That's not going to happen. They seem to be unable to handle westerlies at this latitude. So I'd say an overall consensus is still the way to go. GFDL went west lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know need to get out of here. Slept well last night with a 5 a.m. wake up to check the new cone (it's a disease) so hopefully I can stay up tonight for the 00z runs lol LOL it defnitely is. went to bed @ 1130 was all prepared for a 5AM wake-up but daughter got up at 3. LOL. sweet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Should we be putting putting more stock /faith in the tropical models or the dynamic models or the ensembles right now? And please no "take a blend" answers Take a blend. lol Really though, tropical models handle some factors better, but in the last few runs of the GFDL/HWRF you can see them take this due north into NNE. That's not going to happen. They seem to be unable to handle westerlies at this latitude. So I'd say an overall consensus is still the way to go. You realize that TVCA TVCN etc are blends right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 GFDL went west lol meh GFDL has been performing pretty poorly, yesterday afternoon it had it tracking up the Chesapeake ala Isabel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 You realize that TVCA TVCN etc are blends right? yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 meh GFDL has been performing pretty poorly, yesterday afternoon it had it tracking up the Chesapeake ala Isabel Yeah GFDL has been a hot mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 yup 6 z plots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know I'm in the minority here...but the farther east this thing whiffs the better. I've got a home to sell/rent...last thing I need is water in the basement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I honestly kind of feel like a Dbag looking at the GFS QPF printout and getting excited. Hoping for 9''+ of rain here...the hell is wrong with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know I'm in the minority here...but the farther east this thing whiffs the better. I've got a home to sell/rent...last thing I need is water in the basement No you are not alone, but you know as well as anyone, its what we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I honestly kind of feel like a Dbag looking at the GFS QPF printout and getting excited. Hoping for 9''+ of rain here...the hell is wrong with me? Don't feel bad...I'm hoping for the 14 inches it show for Boston... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I honestly kind of feel like a Dbag looking at the GFS QPF printout and getting excited. Hoping for 9''+ of rain here...the hell is wrong with me? I'd like to see what it drops for rainfall down in NC.. I think whatever they get, translates well up here I love how this thing crawls too.. garden pots cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 917 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011 VALID 12Z SUN AUG 28 2011 - 12Z WED AUG 31 2011 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE TO AFFECT THE NC OUTER BANKS INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND... DUE IN PART TO MORE FREQUENT SAMPLING OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SURROUNDING HURRICANE IRENE BY MULTIPLE AIRPLANE PLATFORMS ALONG WITH CONTINUATION OF SUPPLEMENTAL UPPER AIR RAOBS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS EVERY 6 HOURS...THE MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD FOR THE TRACK OF IRENE HAS BECOME SMALLER AND SMALLER...AND IN FACT COULD BE CONSIDERED EXCELLENT FOR THE LONGER RANGES. ONE OF THE LARGEST REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD HOWEVER IS THE EXACT SPEED AND STRENGTH OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN CANADA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY DAY 3/SAT AND PICK UP IRENE. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE NEARLY CONVERGED WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS TROUGH...WITH THE GFS ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN...THUS ACCELERATING IRENE NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY WITH THE MORE UNCERTAIN HIGHER LATITUDE FLOW IS TO BE EXPECTED...WITH RECENT GFS/ECMWF 4-CYCLE LAGGED AVERAGE FORECASTS SHOWING 500 MB HEIGHT VARIABILITIES AVERAGING 50 TO 70 DECAMETERS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DIFFERING INFLUENCES ON IRENE. BUT FOR NOW...THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH IRENE TO USE NEARLY EQUALLY FOR THE PRELIMINARY PRESSURES/FRONTS FOR DAYS 3-7. THIS APPROACH WORKS WELL FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS AS WELL...AS THE STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WHICH ARE BEST RESOLVED WITH AN INTERMEDIATE APPROACH. ONE DIFFERENCE SEEN IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS FOR GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DAYS 6/7...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER IN EJECTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST COMPARED TO THE GFS...WHICH THEN LEADS TO GROWING DIFFERENCES DOWNSTREAM. WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN AND THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS PROVIDING GOOD SUPPORT FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...WILL LIKELY ABANDON THE ECMWF ALTOGETHER STARTING DAY 6...AND INSTEAD BLEND THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR DAYS 6/7. JAMES/SCHICHTEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'd like to see what it drops for rainfall down in NC.. I think whatever they get, translates well up here I love how this thing crawls too.. garden pots cancel? That was coming next month anyway with the first measurable snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Personally my gut is its a 50/50 this goes west of the BM. True the eastward adjustment has slowed, but models tend to go east with recurving storms combined with the historical bias with this storm. Only thing that could change it is IMHO is some kind of capture scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 917 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011 VALID 12Z SUN AUG 28 2011 - 12Z WED AUG 31 2011 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE TO AFFECT THE NC OUTER BANKS INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND... DUE IN PART TO MORE FREQUENT SAMPLING OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SURROUNDING HURRICANE IRENE BY MULTIPLE AIRPLANE PLATFORMS ALONG WITH CONTINUATION OF SUPPLEMENTAL UPPER AIR RAOBS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS EVERY 6 HOURS...THE MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD FOR THE TRACK OF IRENE HAS BECOME SMALLER AND SMALLER...AND IN FACT COULD BE CONSIDERED EXCELLENT FOR THE LONGER RANGES. ONE OF THE LARGEST REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD HOWEVER IS THE EXACT SPEED AND STRENGTH OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN CANADA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY DAY 3/SAT AND PICK UP IRENE. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE NEARLY CONVERGED WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS TROUGH...WITH THE GFS ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN...THUS ACCELERATING IRENE NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY WITH THE MORE UNCERTAIN HIGHER LATITUDE FLOW IS TO BE EXPECTED...WITH RECENT GFS/ECMWF 4-CYCLE LAGGED AVERAGE FORECASTS SHOWING 500 MB HEIGHT VARIABILITIES AVERAGING 50 TO 70 DECAMETERS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DIFFERING INFLUENCES ON IRENE. BUT FOR NOW...THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH IRENE TO USE NEARLY EQUALLY FOR THE PRELIMINARY PRESSURES/FRONTS FOR DAYS 3-7. THIS APPROACH WORKS WELL FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS AS WELL...AS THE STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WHICH ARE BEST RESOLVED WITH AN INTERMEDIATE APPROACH. ONE DIFFERENCE SEEN IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS FOR GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DAYS 6/7...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER IN EJECTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST COMPARED TO THE GFS...WHICH THEN LEADS TO GROWING DIFFERENCES DOWNSTREAM. WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN AND THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS PROVIDING GOOD SUPPORT FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...WILL LIKELY ABANDON THE ECMWF ALTOGETHER STARTING DAY 6...AND INSTEAD BLEND THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR DAYS 6/7. JAMES/SCHICHTEL The morning GFDL/HWRF...I really can't believe the storm will track N into Canada as they predict. Really got to believe they aren't grasping the northern trough and are probably not very valuable at this point. JMHO, which is worth nothing. GFS/Euro are in decent agreement heading into the 12z suite, I'll go with that rough idea over the west outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 HRF ticked east GFDL came west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 The morning GFDL/HWRF...I really can't believe the storm will track N into Canada as they predict. Really got to believe they aren't grasping the northern trough and are probably not very valuable at this point. JMHO, which is worth nothing. GFS/Euro are in decent agreement heading into the 12z suite, I'll go with that rough idea over the west outliers. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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