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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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Yeah

I wouldn't be shocked to see a trend west in the models.... we're still very early in the game here.

I think a trend west is more likely right now then a trend back east 48 hours out with the storm ending up in the same spot as it is now on the models!

Contacting my.uncle today about going to his beach house in HYA for this

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gfs has trend back west track on 06 run and ecmwf has not change in three day west track through western ct . This storm will hit ct and long Island area . Models will change but storm track like what jb said .

Is this Scott van pelt?

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gfs has trend back west track on 06 run and ecmwf has not change in three day west track through western ct . This storm will hit ct and long Island area . Models will change but storm track like what jb said .

LOL, The Euro has gone from tracking W of NYC to up over ORH. That a shift E in track.

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just have to sit and wait. that's may contribution right now. LOL

I'll be interested to see what the 00z dynamical models do.

I'm going to head down to the City today to take my mind off the storm and have some fun.

Yeppers today is a duh day but tomorrow is decision day for the weekend for me at work, will wait until all 12Z are in . Likely just the amount of rain predicted will make this an easy decision but then again, partly cloudy with cobalt tropical sky is still on the table.

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Yeppers today is a duh day but tomorrow is decision day for the weekend for me at work, will wait until all 12Z are in . Likely just the amount of rain predicted will make this an easy decision but then again, partly cloudy with cobalt tropical sky is still on the table.

Yeah tomorrow is decision/prep day.

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I'll be interested to see what the 00z dynamical models do.

I'm going to head down to the City today to take my mind off the storm and have some fun.

the city as in HFD or NYC? LOL.

not a bad idea at all.

one thing i'm happy about is seeing this storm give certain national folks the middle finger. i was/am so tired of reading tweets from rather well-known weather personalities claiming this was a slam dunk into florida, then SC, then the Outer Banks...then philly, then NYC. that approach is so so dumb and very aggravating.

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the city as in HFD or NYC? LOL.

not a bad idea at all.

one thing i'm happy about is seeing this storm give certain national folks the middle finger. i was/am so tired of reading tweets from rather well-known weather personalities claiming this was a slam dunk into florida, then SC, then the Outer Banks...then philly, then NYC. that approach is so so dumb and very aggravating.

ha... NYC.

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As always starting to over analyze. TC's in general will create there own environment. Remember reading that these beasts are steered by different UAL's dependent of intensity. Wish I could find it for reference

Still tracking WNW, still intensify keeping to facts.

NIEISY as Dicky A. would say. God only knows. :thumbsup:

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Yeppers today is a duh day but tomorrow is decision day for the weekend for me at work, will wait until all 12Z are in . Likely just the amount of rain predicted will make this an easy decision but then again, partly cloudy with cobalt tropical sky is still on the table.

Good point.

It will do what it will do and no sense getting worked up about it today. Thursday into Friday will be busy for many folks if she decides to make a beeline for Westerly.

Hope things at your place go well either way.

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Really hoping for the east swing to happen....

Not trying to have no power for weeks and insane amounts of cleanup. No thanks.

Cape cod or someone else can have it if they want it, one of the projected tracks has the eye wall making landfall at basically my house. yikes.png

I've got to tell you I'm eyeballing the heavy rains as much as the wind aspect if it were to jump east. The rainfall rates the models are putting out would make for some remarkable flooding of houses up here. The rain event we had just a week or so ago almost ruined a few basements...this would put it on a whole new level. A few of my neighbors would be doing the backstroke in their driveways.

Not that worried about the shifts overnight, it would be tonight's 0z unless the 12z went way east...that I care about just based on performance to date on this system.

Love the NHC but their west tracks haven't been good with this system. We're getting to the point though where they have not had to shift the Friday forecast much down around 30N and things have settled even further north. Storm advocates can only hope that carries as far as the outer banks today and we don't see much of a shift.

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