MarkO Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Actually, the 6hr GFS is maybe 25 miles west of the 00 hr run. I guess all things considered it's a pretty good morning. My only concern is climo and just preparing for the inevitable letdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ryan, did you call BM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Didn't the gfs landfall in ma? Did the euro landfall in LI? Am I missing something? I know the trend is east, but thither is the same crap we were saying after the 06z runs yesterday.. Lets see what 12z brings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ryan, did you call BM? Yeah I wouldn't be shocked to see a trend west in the models.... we're still very early in the game here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yeah I wouldn't be shocked to see a trend west in the models.... we're still very early in the game here. These storms are a killer, still a day to go before we're even 72 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yeah I wouldn't be shocked to see a trend west in the models.... we're still very early in the game here. That kicker out west is wreaking havoc in the models, me thinks. I'll run with the Euro at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Its my fault...I told my wife to make sure she gets bottled water today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Actually, the 6hr GFS is maybe 25 miles west of the 00 hr run. I guess all things considered it's a pretty good morning. My only concern is climo and just preparing for the inevitable letdown. It is called acceptance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yeah I wouldn't be shocked to see a trend west in the models.... we're still very early in the game here. I think a trend west is more likely right now then a trend back east 48 hours out with the storm ending up in the same spot as it is now on the models! Contacting my.uncle today about going to his beach house in HYA for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yeah, good call. My head says BM, my heart says CCC, so I guess I'll settle on ACK. I guess it's not all that bad as she'll likely be Cat. 1 or maybe even Cat. 2. This is still likely to be the biggest TC in these parts since Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Didn't the gfs landfall in ma? Did the euro landfall in LI? Am I missing something? I know the trend is east, but thither is the same crap we were saying after the 06z runs yesterday.. Lets see what 12z brings At this rate it landfalls in Iceland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Right over Ginx at hr 120. 1944 went right over Moosup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 1944 went right over Moosup How was the GFS for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 gfs has trend back west track on 06 run and ecmwf has not change in three day west track through western ct . This storm will hit ct and long Island area . Models will change but storm track like what jb said . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 gfs has trend back west track on 06 run and ecmwf has not change in three day west track through western ct . This storm will hit ct and long Island area . Models will change but storm track like what jb said . Is this Scott van pelt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 just have to sit and wait. that's may contribution right now. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 just have to sit and wait. that's may contribution right now. LOL I'll be interested to see what the 00z dynamical models do. I'm going to head down to the City today to take my mind off the storm and have some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 gfs has trend back west track on 06 run and ecmwf has not change in three day west track through western ct . This storm will hit ct and long Island area . Models will change but storm track like what jb said . LOL, The Euro has gone from tracking W of NYC to up over ORH. That a shift E in track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 just have to sit and wait. that's may contribution right now. LOL I said it either Monday or yesterday, tomorrow was my last day on a final track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 How was the GFS for that? First storm to have a name by the what now is NHC. Man the wheels on the bus go round and round just like winter here. Nice QPF printout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 just have to sit and wait. that's may contribution right now. LOL I'll be interested to see what the 00z dynamical models do. I'm going to head down to the City today to take my mind off the storm and have some fun. Yeppers today is a duh day but tomorrow is decision day for the weekend for me at work, will wait until all 12Z are in . Likely just the amount of rain predicted will make this an easy decision but then again, partly cloudy with cobalt tropical sky is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yeppers today is a duh day but tomorrow is decision day for the weekend for me at work, will wait until all 12Z are in . Likely just the amount of rain predicted will make this an easy decision but then again, partly cloudy with cobalt tropical sky is still on the table. Yeah tomorrow is decision/prep day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'll be interested to see what the 00z dynamical models do. I'm going to head down to the City today to take my mind off the storm and have some fun. the city as in HFD or NYC? LOL. not a bad idea at all. one thing i'm happy about is seeing this storm give certain national folks the middle finger. i was/am so tired of reading tweets from rather well-known weather personalities claiming this was a slam dunk into florida, then SC, then the Outer Banks...then philly, then NYC. that approach is so so dumb and very aggravating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 the city as in HFD or NYC? LOL. not a bad idea at all. one thing i'm happy about is seeing this storm give certain national folks the middle finger. i was/am so tired of reading tweets from rather well-known weather personalities claiming this was a slam dunk into florida, then SC, then the Outer Banks...then philly, then NYC. that approach is so so dumb and very aggravating. ha... NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 As always starting to over analyze. TC's in general will create there own environment. Remember reading that these beasts are steered by different UAL's dependent of intensity. Wish I could find it for reference Still tracking WNW, still intensify keeping to facts. NIEISY as Dicky A. would say. God only knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Now that's pretty much an identical track after HSE,just to show Libations it can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yeppers today is a duh day but tomorrow is decision day for the weekend for me at work, will wait until all 12Z are in . Likely just the amount of rain predicted will make this an easy decision but then again, partly cloudy with cobalt tropical sky is still on the table. Good point. It will do what it will do and no sense getting worked up about it today. Thursday into Friday will be busy for many folks if she decides to make a beeline for Westerly. Hope things at your place go well either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Really hoping for the east swing to happen.... Not trying to have no power for weeks and insane amounts of cleanup. No thanks. Cape cod or someone else can have it if they want it, one of the projected tracks has the eye wall making landfall at basically my house. I've got to tell you I'm eyeballing the heavy rains as much as the wind aspect if it were to jump east. The rainfall rates the models are putting out would make for some remarkable flooding of houses up here. The rain event we had just a week or so ago almost ruined a few basements...this would put it on a whole new level. A few of my neighbors would be doing the backstroke in their driveways. Not that worried about the shifts overnight, it would be tonight's 0z unless the 12z went way east...that I care about just based on performance to date on this system. Love the NHC but their west tracks haven't been good with this system. We're getting to the point though where they have not had to shift the Friday forecast much down around 30N and things have settled even further north. Storm advocates can only hope that carries as far as the outer banks today and we don't see much of a shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 SLIIIDE to the left...SLIIIDE to the right...Two hops this time (BOMP BOMP)...Take it back now y'all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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