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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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Some of you guys kill me. Good news, bad news, good news, bad news. It never ends. It's a vicious cycle. This thing is 4 days out for christ sake. ANYTHING can happen.

That's exactly the point. A model consensus of RI/SE MA 100 hours out is just about the worse thing.

Guess we'll see today. But the Euro trending that far east is a terrible sign. You can start to see the tropical models bending Irene more to the NE once past HSE, looks like they're starting to bow to the westerlies.

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It was an almost impossible angle of attack unless there was significant ridging to the northeast, there will be a day when a more Hugo like trajectory will occur (in its early stages), that will get pulled north, but its looking like this is not to be. Models are accelerating Irene now, as they start to show the westerlies in the UAF. In reality (even though we have no control) the east coast may have dodged two bullets, the earthquake and possibly Irene, in these tough times I dont necessarily look at that as a horrible thing, plenty of time, plenty of time down the road

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It was an almost impossible angle of attack unless there was significant ridging to the northeast, there will be a day when a more Hugo like trajectory will occur (in its early stages), that will get pulled north, but its looking like this is not to be. Models are accelerating Irene now, as they start to show the westerlies in the UAF. In reality (even though we have no control) the east coast may have dodged two bullets, the earthquake and possibly Irene, in these tough times I dont necessarily look at that as a horrible thing, plenty of time, plenty of time down the road

How is it impossible? The projected track is pretty-much a classic angle of approach for a hurricane hitting the Northeast USA: a brush with HSE followed by NNE motion into NY/New England. A Hugo-like trajectory as much less common and none of the big Northeast USA hurricanes from the last century hit from that angle.

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How is it impossible? The projected track is pretty-much a classic angle of approach for a hurricane hitting the Northeast USA: a brush with HSE followed by NNE motion into NY/New England. A Hugo-like trajectory as much less common and none of the big Northeast USA hurricanes from the last century hit from that angle.

I am talking about a direct hit on sne where sne experiences the right front quad, not just the cape, Irene right now is basically due south of HVN and heading nw, it would be nearly impossible for it not to make landfall in NC before hitting sne, it would have to travel due north for 4-500 miles, which is rare, especially up here with westerlies. The day will come when a cane takes a more Hugo like track and ridging is to the north that will cause it to slam into ne nj or the nyc area putting the heart of sne in the RFQ.

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Although the bulk of the hurricane may stay offshore, we might just be close enough to get clipped by hurricane conditions. IMO That would seem to be an ideal track as far as morals/damage versus thrill seeking. Edna- type track is actually ideal for the NE chaser, so let's hope that locks in, even if a bit OTS beyond that exact track.

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looks like pressure is below 960 now.. looking good, also watching the movement, so far everything still on track, maybe a bit SW of the next forecast point. I will be watching for position and when it makes the NNW turn, I think that needs to be watched along with the models as they would have re-adjust based on any major wobbles in any direction.

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Well hopefully the 12z models stop the trend, but the way things are going..I wouldn't lock it in.

When these things get a taste of the westlerlies, they'll begin to turn on a dime. Bill and Earl taught me that lesson for sure. Hopefully something like the 06z gfs op is realistic. At least that would bring a hell of a storm for the coast, and blow Phil into the Atlantic. Phil might get some payback for this winter.

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