Mr Torchey Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 LOL Biatchslapped by climo again, looks like in the end da benchmark might be the call afterall....................Ryan FTW!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'll take the trend. We live for this kind of thing out here since we don't get snow. Any thoughts on wind speeds we can expect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Some of you guys kill me. Good news, bad news, good news, bad news. It never ends. It's a vicious cycle. This thing is 4 days out for christ sake. ANYTHING can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Some of you guys kill me. Good news, bad news, good news, bad news. It never ends. It's a vicious cycle. This thing is 4 days out for christ sake. ANYTHING can happen. That's exactly the point. A model consensus of RI/SE MA 100 hours out is just about the worse thing. Guess we'll see today. But the Euro trending that far east is a terrible sign. You can start to see the tropical models bending Irene more to the NE once past HSE, looks like they're starting to bow to the westerlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It was an almost impossible angle of attack unless there was significant ridging to the northeast, there will be a day when a more Hugo like trajectory will occur (in its early stages), that will get pulled north, but its looking like this is not to be. Models are accelerating Irene now, as they start to show the westerlies in the UAF. In reality (even though we have no control) the east coast may have dodged two bullets, the earthquake and possibly Irene, in these tough times I dont necessarily look at that as a horrible thing, plenty of time, plenty of time down the road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 That's a lot of fookin' rain coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It was an almost impossible angle of attack unless there was significant ridging to the northeast, there will be a day when a more Hugo like trajectory will occur (in its early stages), that will get pulled north, but its looking like this is not to be. Models are accelerating Irene now, as they start to show the westerlies in the UAF. In reality (even though we have no control) the east coast may have dodged two bullets, the earthquake and possibly Irene, in these tough times I dont necessarily look at that as a horrible thing, plenty of time, plenty of time down the road How is it impossible? The projected track is pretty-much a classic angle of approach for a hurricane hitting the Northeast USA: a brush with HSE followed by NNE motion into NY/New England. A Hugo-like trajectory as much less common and none of the big Northeast USA hurricanes from the last century hit from that angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 LOL Biatchslapped by climo again, looks like in the end da benchmark might be the call afterall....................Ryan FTW!! Its 4 days out.. relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 That's a lot of fookin' rain coming. Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 How is it impossible? The projected track is pretty-much a classic angle of approach for a hurricane hitting the Northeast USA: a brush with HSE followed by NNE motion into NY/New England. A Hugo-like trajectory as much less common and none of the big Northeast USA hurricanes from the last century hit from that angle. I am talking about a direct hit on sne where sne experiences the right front quad, not just the cape, Irene right now is basically due south of HVN and heading nw, it would be nearly impossible for it not to make landfall in NC before hitting sne, it would have to travel due north for 4-500 miles, which is rare, especially up here with westerlies. The day will come when a cane takes a more Hugo like track and ridging is to the north that will cause it to slam into ne nj or the nyc area putting the heart of sne in the RFQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Its 4 days out.. relax Im totally relaxed now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Maybe Bigger threat than the winds at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 WHo cares about rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Well kind of AWT I guess. 06z models aren't the best, but that would be a heck of a storm for the coast wrt rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 WHo cares about rain Because we see 9" rain storms quite often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Here is the 0Z WRF: http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/irene09l.2011082400/irene09l.2011082400_anim.html and the 6Z: http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/irene09l.2011082406/irene09l.2011082406_anim.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Although the bulk of the hurricane may stay offshore, we might just be close enough to get clipped by hurricane conditions. IMO That would seem to be an ideal track as far as morals/damage versus thrill seeking. Edna- type track is actually ideal for the NE chaser, so let's hope that locks in, even if a bit OTS beyond that exact track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 72 hour model bias has been about 300 KM SW so not too shocking to see this more east on some products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 06z ensembles are just nw of the BM it seems. Maybe I shouldn't have wavered too much from my earlier call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Im totally relaxed now! at this rate of east trending we might get a nice day on sunday...pays to know climo around here...east trend is the kiss of death.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 06z ensembles are just nw of the BM it seems. Maybe I shouldn't have wavered too much from my earlier call. That far east? wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 That far east? wow. 06z GFS ensembles. Not that they are great, just pointing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 looks like pressure is below 960 now.. looking good, also watching the movement, so far everything still on track, maybe a bit SW of the next forecast point. I will be watching for position and when it makes the NNW turn, I think that needs to be watched along with the models as they would have re-adjust based on any major wobbles in any direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Well hopefully the 12z models stop the trend, but the way things are going..I wouldn't lock it in. When these things get a taste of the westlerlies, they'll begin to turn on a dime. Bill and Earl taught me that lesson for sure. Hopefully something like the 06z gfs op is realistic. At least that would bring a hell of a storm for the coast, and blow Phil into the Atlantic. Phil might get some payback for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I like my call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Would a slower moving cane provide a better chance of storm surge flooding because of coinciding with high tides? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Wake up to Cat. 3 and OTS . AWT, AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 I like my call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I like my call Looks good ... 99 times out of 100 that would look good. Your ratings won't be helped though. "Who needs an accurate met. We want death and destruction!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ackwaves will have another fun storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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