ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Euro absolutely rips E LI...60-70 knots sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Euro absolutely rips E LI...60-70 knots sustained. Yup-- Josh said, Carol-like track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 06z dynamical models prettty much suck. http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2011/al092011/track_early/aal09_2011082406_track_early.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 06z dynamical models prettty much suck. http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2011/al092011/track_early/aal09_2011082406_track_early.png lolz It just gets lamer and lamer. Every time I grow accustomed to the new level of lameness, it gets worse. What an evil, sh*tty system. Just hateful. So ready to give up on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 lolz It just gets lamer and lamer. Every time I grow accustomed to the new level of lameness, it gets worse. What an evil, sh*tty system. Just hateful. So ready to give up on this one. This season has been one big tease. We'll see where we go from here. At least 1995 delivered at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Thats an ugly set of 06z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I asked this in another thread, but correct me if I am wrong, but isn't the 06z model cycle taken off of the the 00z data? Thats an ugly set of 06z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 From the 5AM EDT NHC advisory.. Dynamical models further east than the NHC track though. They're staying on the left side of the model consensus: 96H 28/0600Z 36.5N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 42.0N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Well that was very disheartening overnight. Won't be long before Ryan logs on and really depresses and brings everyone down. Any word on the Euro ensembles? Did they shift east too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Any word on the Euro ensembles? Did they shift east too? East and faster than 12z...also east of the op. Looks like over the Cape somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 East and faster than 12z...also east of the op. Looks like over the Cape somewhere. At least we have the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 East and faster than 12z...also east of the op. Looks like over the Cape somewhere. Kevin's NYC landfall is looking more precarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 East and faster than 12z...also east of the op. Looks like over the Cape somewhere. This better not go OTS. Enough with the eastward trend. Good RAFL chances anyway.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 This better not go OTS. Enough with the eastward trend. Good RAFL chances anyway.. You know what it's going to do. I think that is why there are no SNE chase threads...because we know the inevitable...or at least prepared. I'd be happy as a clam (no pun) to see 50kt winds and very heavy rains on the Cape. That is interesting enough for me. Anything else is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Well the 6z GFS is a tick west from 00z at 66hr. There's still a lot of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's the NAM and WRF now. It's all we've got left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Kevin's NYC landfall is looking more precarious. You stayed up all nite for this...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Well the 6z GFS is a tick west from 00z at 66hr. There's still a lot of time. I'll try not to get depressed yet. We still have some on our side and a lot of time left, like you said. Thinking back on Bob.. That slammed the area good. I'll take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 You stayed up all nite for this...lol Congrats on making the playoffs in baseball....your team is worse than mine...but my injuries crippled me and I only recently was able to mount a big comeback. You're lucky that the season ended earlier than normal. Another week and you;d be out of it easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Would appear I got some food poisoning today from lunch which is why I'm up. Almost as pleasant as watching the models tick east. If I got roped into this one after seeing such good consensus and it misses...ugh. HWRF is east for sure of the 12z but up over the outer banks at 928. West of the 18z. I have no idea how it's done on this system, was just checking it out. Looks like it goes right over Western LI or NYC at 948. Food poisoning, a likely story.lol I was up due to babius interuptus. Glad to see you're back, an early harbinger of Winter. Glad you guys are having fun tracking this. I'm not a tropical storm geek, I'd rather see this go harmlessly out to sea rather than disrupt lives and destroy property. I would think this could be a real concern for you CC guys. I feel safe from the storm surge and tidal flooding.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Well, things continue to look good for some. If nothing more than to have all the news outlets looking foolish, it would be nice to see last nights shift east become a continuing trend. I think if there's any further eastward shift at 11:00, we can begin to sound a death knell. Bu then again, what do I know? 52.9/51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Congrats on making the playoffs in baseball....your team is worse than mine...but my injuries crippled me and I only recently was able to mount a big comeback. You're lucky that the season ended earlier than normal. Another week and you;d be out of it easily. That's a bitter poor sport kind of response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Well, things continue to look good for some. If nothing more than to have all the news outlets looking foolish, it would be nice to see last nights shift east become a continuing trend. I think if there's any further eastward shift at 11:00, we can begin to sound a death knell. Bu then again, what do I know? 52.9/51 Going, going, GONE! How much rain have you had this month Mike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks like a Canal crusher on the 06z GFS ... a tad NW of the track it had at 00z between ACK and MVY. Think I'll prepare myself for a dark and stormy Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Going, going, GONE! How much rain have you had this month Mike? Not as much as most folks. 4.63". I guess I'll be adding to it somewhat over the next five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks like a Canal crusher on the 06z GFS ... a tad NW of the track it had at 00z between ACK and MVY. Think I'll prepare myself for a dark and stormy Sunday. I'd like that track if it were a winter event. Folks in the maritimes could get into some fun if it doesn't recurve too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I think the models will tick back a little west today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I think the models will tick back a little west today... I hope so and slows down too as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'd like that track if it were a winter event. Folks in the maritimes could get into some fun if it doesn't recurve too much. Our member from Halifax might have an interesting day, for sure. I guess this might satisfy your QPF fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Think I'll be pretty much done betting on tropical threats after this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.