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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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The Euro data is unreal there, but there is absolutely no way that stays free...ecmwf.int people would never allow it. They must have had some sort of deal to show it on a trial period or something.

Yeah I can't imagine that being free for too long.

The graphics are out of this world. This could become a favorite pretty quickly.

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If I had them emailing me about posting a fooking qpf map in the winter a couple years ago, then there is no way that stays free. I'm sure they made some deal with them to allow them to show it during some trial period and then either the data gets delayed for 45-60 minutes, or it becomes subscription at a hefty price.

How awesome would that be, if you had 950mb temps every 3 hrs for your ORH blue bomb fetish storms..lol.

Anyways don't want to derail.

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The Euro data is unreal there, but there is absolutely no way that stays free...ecmwf.int people would never allow it. They must have had some sort of deal to show it on a trial period or something.

I remember Marcus talking about the costs to host it on the old site, was in the thousands of dollars. I wonder if they are paying the fee and hoping advertising/clicks will pay the bill?

I had an oh sh*t moment with Irene already. I briefed a client about San Juan and said that the worst should be off to their south and they shouldn't worry about 50kt winds. Well Irene then decided to have a center jump north by 70 miles or so, and intensified to a cane. Luckily San Juan only briefly had 50kt winds for like 10 minutes so the forecast actually panned out ok. 50kt winds are usually when all planes are removed and operations cease.

Was just looking at the NAM/GFS, both handling the initial trough coming through differently than earlier runs. Kind of like what we see when we have that oh shi* moment in the winter storms. I don't know if this is what's been going on with the bend east over time, but it certainly seems possible/plausible/explainable that it could be occuring now as models get the final hold on the trough as it comes east of the MS River.

HWRF is rolling in looks a bit NE or NNE of the earlier run?

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Yeah I can't usually stomach Hannity for too long. I turned him on WABC (NYC) to hear what they were saying about the earth quake and he brings JB on to talk about the quake and the cane. Funny how they expect mets to talk about seismic events....

As long as JB gets his anti-global warming plugs in Hannity is happy and will gladly promote JB's site.

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BTW ...JB was on a ridiculous roll today predicting doom all the way from VA to MA ...heard him on Sean Hannity on the radio. It will be interesting to see him spin his way out of this one if it's a glancing blow.

Wow, true weenies up well past midnight drooling over a storm 4-5 days out that more than likely will be nothing more than a glancing blow of rain and wind. if it were winter and snow were involved I'd totally understand but this......lol

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Well the further west it can get over the next day ...pretty critical I think. I never felt positive about a cane that barely hits Hatteras having much impact in most of NE. We see how it could happen, but very rare. So I'm watching the loop ...still a solid wnw movement.

As long as JB gets his anti-global warming plugs in Hannity is happy and will gladly promote JB's site.

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I get sucked in....

lol, yeah, I'm watching but if I had to bet money I'd be betting on low/no impact here. The cape/coastal people probably have some legit concerns but for me, it's just going to ruin a day of potential golf. Still it fun to have a pre Winter drill. JB is quite an entertainer.

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I agree W. MA and here will not get much probably, but with canes I have fun tracking them even if it's not right IMBY. If this were a snow situation that was only gonna get KGAY and Messenger...I'd be tuned out mostly. LOL

lol, yeah, I'm watching but if I had to bet money I'd be betting on low/no impact here. The cape/coastal people probably have some legit concerns but for me, it's just going to ruin a day of potential golf. Still it fun to have a pre Winter drill. JB is quite an entertainer.

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Wow, true weenies up well past midnight drooling over a storm 4-5 days out that more than likely will be nothing more than a glancing blow of rain and wind. if it were winter and snow were involved I'd totally understand but this......lol

Would appear I got some food poisoning today from lunch which is why I'm up. Almost as pleasant as watching the models tick east. If I got roped into this one after seeing such good consensus and it misses...ugh.

HWRF is east for sure of the 12z but up over the outer banks at 928. West of the 18z.

I have no idea how it's done on this system, was just checking it out.

Looks like it goes right over Western LI or NYC at 948.

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Would appear I got some food poisoning today from lunch which is why I'm up. Almost as pleasant as watching the models tick east. If I got roped into this one after seeing such good consensus and it misses...ugh.

HWRF is east for sure of the 12z but up over the outer banks at 928. West of the 18z.

I have no idea how it's done on this system, was just checking it out.

Looks like it goes right over Western LI or NYC at 948.

Noyes said it's been great, so good to see that still west.

Dead nuts on the 12z EURO.

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Would appear I got some food poisoning today from lunch which is why I'm up. Almost as pleasant as watching the models tick east. If I got roped into this one after seeing such good consensus and it misses...ugh.

HWRF is east for sure of the 12z but up over the outer banks at 928. West of the 18z.

I have no idea how it's done on this system, was just checking it out.

Looks like it goes right over Western LI or NYC at 948.

Well, that would be an interesting experience for me were it to pan out.

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I remember Marcus talking about the costs to host it on the old site, was in the thousands of dollars. I wonder if they are paying the fee and hoping advertising/clicks will pay the bill?

No way, the fee to make ecmwf.int make their data public would be in the tens of millions of dollars if vendor sites are any measure...and if ecmwf.int's protection of their data is any gauge as well. They seem to have the same resources as the CIA when it comes to finding out who is distributing their data without consent. I'm sure its some sort of a trial. If it isn't, that is fantastic though, but I put that probability about the same as Irene making landfall as a cat 4 in SNE.

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