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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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Love me some swanus conveyor belt.......that torrid airmass will make landfall right on my ball bag.

:lol:

I feel like an idiot for getting wrapped up in this so early...no matter the outcome. Really hoping we aren't blasting Pink Floyd in our garages tomorrow.

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It was, but for some reason water temps have been cooler. There are days when I spend a good 30 minutes at a clip in the water, this summer I've been getting out within 5 minutes if I'm not doing a quarter mile swim.

We were off Coast Guard Beach a few weeks back the day after a wind change. Hit 49 degrees for about 20 minutes on a tide change out in 140 feet of water. Been like that at times off our beach here too. I think the top part of the column is "warm" or at least average - maybe the top 40-50 feet..below that I think it was unable to warm up with the slow cloudy start to summer. Not sure on that though.

Be an interesting battle as Will mentioned earlier, top layer may get obliterated with a slow mover.

Down off Jersey this was one of the more epic years in quite a few for fishing off in the deep...warm water. Too warm now, they're waiting for it to drop a bit.

I'm thinking I should hold off on my plan to fertilize Friday.

gfs_p60_138l.gif

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:lol:

I feel like an idiot for getting wrapped up in this so early...no matter the outcome. Really hoping we aren't blasting Pink Floyd in our garages tomorrow.

I had my heart set on a Carolina catastrophe for this very reason...some folks will spin $hit and spout off about the avg track error of 200 mi, yadda, yadda, yadda......but go do a study on the correction vector or systems at this lat.....won't find many pointed 200 miles to the west, is my guess.

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Imagine if every Noreaster threat for 20 years had whiffed east and left us with a glancing blow. :devilsmiley: That's essentially what has happened in SNE with regard to hurricane landfalls. Is this the 20 year storm? Maybe ..what do I know.....

:lol:

I feel like an idiot for getting wrapped up in this so early...no matter the outcome. Really hoping we aren't blasting Pink Floyd in our garages tomorrow.

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I had my heart set on a Carolina catastrophe for this very reason...some folks will spin $hit and spout off about the avg track error of 200 mi, yadda, yadda, yadda......but go do a study on the correction vector or systems at this lat.....won't find many pointed 200 miles to the west, is my guess.

There are a lot of emergency managers and local tv news directors from Myrtle Beach down to Miami who aren't too impressed with the NHC and its track prognostications at this moment.

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There are a lot of emergency managers and local tv news directors from Myrtle Beach down to Miami who aren't too impressed with the NHC and its track prognostications at this moment.

Well, how impressed would they be if they dry humped the 1st model that sent it up the coast, only to have conscensus shift back s at day 3.

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What if the euro is still over NYC?

I was only casually glancing since about Sunday but wasn't it over Miami for a bunch of runs and we were worried about the GOM oil rigs? Been too far west all along, will it resume ticking east playing into Ray's fears of correction vectors?

If you look at the graphic which I know is just a rough guess per NHC...but based on the guidance of course....around 30N...it's about D4 that we saw the big jump east really occuring...about this point in the system for us. From that point down there it jumped pretty far east before leveling out where it has remained for a few runs/a day or two now.

We haven't really seen the bend east in the Carolinas on the NHC track maps yet, but maybe we're starting to see it now in the guidance pending the Euro and others? I'm thinking the trick east on the GFS may be a harbinger but we'll see.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml

You can make this loop pause by right clicking...start again by left clicking.

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A Cape Cod hit is sort of like a Hatteras hit. It's a bad thing to say I suppose, but it doesn't seem that rewarding. LOL I wanted to see it hit a population center ..let's at least get PVD. :devilsmiley:

Well, how impressed would they be if they dry humped the 1st model that sent it up the coast, only to have conscensus shift back s at day 3.

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Thanks, Jake!

This is freaking incredible!

The Euro data is unreal there, but there is absolutely no way that stays free...ecmwf.int people would never allow it. They must have had some sort of deal to show it on a trial period or something.

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I was only casually glancing since about Sunday but wasn't it over Miami for a bunch of runs and we were worried about the GOM oil rigs? Been too far west all along, will it resume ticking east playing into Ray's fears of correction vectors?

If you look at the graphic which I know is just a rough guess per NHC...but based on the guidance of course....around 30N...it's about D4 that we saw the big jump east really occuring...about this point in the system for us. From that point down there it jumped pretty far east before leveling out where it has remained for a few runs/a day or two now.

We haven't really seen the bend east in the Carolinas on the NHC track maps yet, but maybe we're starting to see it now in the guidance pending the Euro and others? I'm thinking the trick east on the GFS may be a harbinger but we'll see.

http://www.nhc.noaa....9/loop_5W.shtml

You can make this loop pause by right clicking...start again by left clicking.

I had an oh sh*t moment with Irene already. I briefed a client about San Juan and said that the worst should be off to their south and they shouldn't worry about 50kt winds. Well Irene then decided to have a center jump north by 70 miles or so, and intensified to a cane. Luckily San Juan only briefly had 50kt winds for like 10 minutes so the forecast actually panned out ok. 50kt winds are usually when all planes are removed and operations cease.

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The Euro data is unreal there, but there is absolutely no way that stays free...ecmwf.int people would never allow it. They must have had some sort of deal to show it on a trial period or something.

Those sick fooks will never allow that to be shown in the winter.

As it is, it fooking rocks right now.

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Those sick fooks will never allow that to be shown in the winter.

As it is, it fooking rocks right now.

If I had them emailing me about posting a fooking qpf map in the winter a couple years ago, then there is no way that stays free. I'm sure they made some deal with them to allow them to show it during some trial period and then either the data gets delayed for 45-60 minutes, or it becomes subscription at a hefty price.

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