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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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I think that has been one of the more likely scenarios for awhile. This won't be as strong as Bob and I'm favoring a SE MA/Cape landfall. But we'll see. We have to remember that we are not tracking this inside of 48 or even 72 hours...its still over 100 hours out.

No, I agree....just hoping to be wrong.

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Nice swells just starting, rips are strong this week anyway, dangerous in what way, stay below your waist, swim sideways out of rips.

Second Beach in Middletown is the worst beach in this area for rip currents. I'm not a surfer, but I've been sucked out a few times at this beach well above my head and it can get scary when your heart starts to pound and you get stuck. One time it was after Labor Day and there weren't any lifeguards and there was a hurricane between ACK and Bermuda and I got pulled out...there was a kid on his surfboard looking at me...My ego wouldn't permit me to ask for help so I just treaded water for a couple minutes before I swam to safety. Everyone says swim parallel to the shore, but sometimes when you're so far out you're so conditioned to try and swim to shore even if you're stuck in a rip current.

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I posted something regarding intensity being dictated by inner processes last night and it was deleted...lame.

would not suprise me regarding the GFS.

The problem is that popularity schemas - similar to the pettiness of High School mentality - is in the moderation think tank on this source. Probably will cause my exit here shortly but I'll leave it at that - but if you reflect on that you'll come to find that to be true.

That said, regarding speed of Irene past the latitude of Cape H: this trough is key -

post-904-0-10932200-1314159447.jpg

Currently it is still out over the NE Pacific... It may become flatter or more amplified upon relay over the denser sounding domain of N/A.

post-904-0-84870900-1314159461.jpg

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I wouldn't be surprised if Irene performs an Edouard-like hook as it approaches the Cape.

I'd be a bit surprised if it hooked that violently to the east with the Atlantic ridge like it is, but I suppose at this time range, those modeled features can still break down quite a bit.

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Yep just a matter of how fast it weakens. Do you remember the storm many years ago that redeveloped while over the swamps of eastern NC?

This chart is fairly accurate...and typical. If it stays west of Islip it'll be able to maintain a bit better than if it slides east. That cooler wedge has been there quite often this summer south of Block.

ne_11_08_23_03_15_PM_H.gif

Water temps in Newport have been well below normal this summer.

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Thought it was a torch high humidity summer in Newport?

GFS east, So early for all this anyway but fun!

It was, but for some reason water temps have been cooler. There are days when I spend a good 30 minutes at a clip in the water, this summer I've been getting out within 5 minutes if I'm not doing a quarter mile swim.

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It's not a great run of you want a New England impact. It suggests that the center would cross the Cape, so most of the heaviest weather would remain offshore.

Yeah the Cape still gets hit with pretty decent winds, but you can see that core of best winds staying SE...we want the track a good 50 miles west.

jpucut.jpg

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I'd be a bit surprised if it hooked that violently to the east with the Atlantic ridge like it is, but I suppose at this time range, those modeled features can still break down quite a bit.

Exactly!

folks, this is just modeling "giga" motions. We are talking 50 or so miles on a D4.5+ chart - considering that NHC's own effort boast a 200 mile variance at that range - yeah.

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