40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 On 8/24/2011 at 4:16 AM, ORH_wxman said: I think that has been one of the more likely scenarios for awhile. This won't be as strong as Bob and I'm favoring a SE MA/Cape landfall. But we'll see. We have to remember that we are not tracking this inside of 48 or even 72 hours...its still over 100 hours out. No, I agree....just hoping to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 GFS sped up the forward movement too, which is also probably why its a little further east. Not a surprise on either front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 On 8/24/2011 at 3:54 AM, Ginx said: Nice swells just starting, rips are strong this week anyway, dangerous in what way, stay below your waist, swim sideways out of rips. Second Beach in Middletown is the worst beach in this area for rip currents. I'm not a surfer, but I've been sucked out a few times at this beach well above my head and it can get scary when your heart starts to pound and you get stuck. One time it was after Labor Day and there weren't any lifeguards and there was a hurricane between ACK and Bermuda and I got pulled out...there was a kid on his surfboard looking at me...My ego wouldn't permit me to ask for help so I just treaded water for a couple minutes before I swam to safety. Everyone says swim parallel to the shore, but sometimes when you're so far out you're so conditioned to try and swim to shore even if you're stuck in a rip current. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 On 8/24/2011 at 4:10 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I posted something regarding intensity being dictated by inner processes last night and it was deleted...lame. would not suprise me regarding the GFS. The problem is that popularity schemas - similar to the pettiness of High School mentality - is in the moderation think tank on this source. Probably will cause my exit here shortly but I'll leave it at that - but if you reflect on that you'll come to find that to be true. That said, regarding speed of Irene past the latitude of Cape H: this trough is key - Currently it is still out over the NE Pacific... It may become flatter or more amplified upon relay over the denser sounding domain of N/A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Cape Cod landfall between 114-120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 On 8/24/2011 at 4:17 AM, ORH_wxman said: GFS sped up the forward movement too, which is also probably why its a little further east. Not a surprise on either front. Yeah can't say we didn't talk about this. We all sort of threw those flags out there. Of course, we'll see what everything else does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 GFS looks like it comes over between my house and Phil's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 On 8/24/2011 at 4:17 AM, ORH_wxman said: GFS sped up the forward movement too, which is also probably why its a little further east. Not a surprise on either front. No...you and I agreed on faster and east trends a couple of hours ago. Gonna be lame anywhere outside of the canal....CC has hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 12" of rain and 60mph winds aren't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Chair tipper run for me, but it's early yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 This looks no different than the 06z run that took it over SE Mass, but it came back inland on the 12z/18z runs... I'd like to see more continuity here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised if Irene performs an Edouard-like hook as it approaches the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 as the world turns here.. one run of the GFS and it's all done.. reminds me of winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 On 8/24/2011 at 4:21 AM, CoastalWx said: 12" of rain and 60mph winds aren't bad. If you hold that for 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 On 8/24/2011 at 4:21 AM, SouthCoastMA said: I wouldn't be surprised if Irene performs an Edouard-like hook as it approaches the Cape. I'd be a bit surprised if it hooked that violently to the east with the Atlantic ridge like it is, but I suppose at this time range, those modeled features can still break down quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Pawtuxet River Pounder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's not a great run if you want a New England impact. It suggests that the center would cross the Cape, so most of the heaviest weather would remain offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 On 8/24/2011 at 4:06 AM, messenger said: Yep just a matter of how fast it weakens. Do you remember the storm many years ago that redeveloped while over the swamps of eastern NC? This chart is fairly accurate...and typical. If it stays west of Islip it'll be able to maintain a bit better than if it slides east. That cooler wedge has been there quite often this summer south of Block. Water temps in Newport have been well below normal this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 EMA gets buried with rain 9+ .. not good either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 On 8/24/2011 at 4:23 AM, HurricaneJosh said: It's not a great run of you want a US impact. It suggests that the center would cross the Cape, so most of the heaviest weather would remain offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 On 8/24/2011 at 4:22 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: If you hold that for 4 days. Maybe I'll bring back my near and se of ACK call, lol. It's one run, but I think every one of us said that it could go east. These things have a fettish for westerlies. It's still early, in the game so gotta see what the next 24 hours do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 On 8/24/2011 at 4:23 AM, HarveyLeonardFan said: Water temps in Newport have been well below normal this summer. Thought it was a torch high humidity summer in Newport? GFS east, So early for all this anyway but fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 On 8/24/2011 at 4:25 AM, CoastalWx said: Maybe I'll bring back my near and se of ACK call, lol. It's one run, but I think every one of us said that it could go east. These things have a fettish for westerlies. It's still early, in the game so gotta see what the next 24 hours do. At least we get the SCB, now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 On 8/24/2011 at 4:26 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: At least we get the SCB, now. Great run for the flood fetishists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 one run and the 6 shooters come out, love it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 On 8/24/2011 at 4:26 AM, Ginx said: Thought it was a torch high humidity summer in Newport? GFS east, So early for all this anyway but fun! It was, but for some reason water temps have been cooler. There are days when I spend a good 30 minutes at a clip in the water, this summer I've been getting out within 5 minutes if I'm not doing a quarter mile swim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 On 8/24/2011 at 4:28 AM, DomNH said: Great run for the flood fetishists. Love me some swanus conveyor belt.......that torrid airmass will make landfall right on my ball bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 On 8/24/2011 at 4:23 AM, HarveyLeonardFan said: Water temps in Newport have been well below normal this summer. I can't figure it out to be honest...been the same way into Buzzards Bay at times. It was Danny, good memory guys, circa 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 On 8/24/2011 at 4:23 AM, HurricaneJosh said: It's not a great run of you want a New England impact. It suggests that the center would cross the Cape, so most of the heaviest weather would remain offshore. Yeah the Cape still gets hit with pretty decent winds, but you can see that core of best winds staying SE...we want the track a good 50 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 On 8/24/2011 at 4:22 AM, ORH_wxman said: I'd be a bit surprised if it hooked that violently to the east with the Atlantic ridge like it is, but I suppose at this time range, those modeled features can still break down quite a bit. Exactly! folks, this is just modeling "giga" motions. We are talking 50 or so miles on a D4.5+ chart - considering that NHC's own effort boast a 200 mile variance at that range - yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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