Interesting QBO Stats for Winter

[BethesdaWX]

I also have limited understanding of the index. But I thought that the best readings were ones that didn't go too strongly in either direction. +5 to -5 was the range of the oscillation we wanted winter to time with. Maybe I misremembered my reading of Tolleris.

In this case I agree but I'm still 3 years away from a full degree and a complete rookie. I believe the -QBO in a healthy La Nina forces more of a stretched out North Pacific Ridge, and while the -NAO would be slightly stronger, the SE ridge would increase in strength since the forcing would favor one with the eastward expanse of the North Pacific Ridge but still off the west coast. I don't believe a SE ridge and -NAO are mutually exclusive in all cases but I could be wrong.

[Kevin Druff]

It was indeed, unfortunately though the Jan 6 - 7 storm occupies most of my memory of that winter - minus the Nov storm and Feb artic blast. I just don't recall any of the other snow events. I guess it's hard to leave an impression after a historic 37- inch snowfall.

I lived in Fishersville that year. I remember taking the yard stick out and I couldn't believe it disappeared. Now I wish I knew better and had measured appropriately so I could know how much actually fell. I measured 38" after it was all over, but it was probably close to 40-42" that fell total.

[Deck Pic]

In this case I agree but I'm still 3 years away from a full degree and a complete rookie. I believe the -QBO in a healthy La Nina forces more of a stretched out North Pacific Ridge, and while the -NAO would be slightly stronger, the SE ridge would increase in strength since the forcing would favor one with the eastward expanse of the North Pacific Ridge but still off the west coast. I don't believe a SE ridge and -NAO are mutually exclusive in all cases but I could be wrong.

1st, we really don't know how negative it will be.....but -QBO/-NAO La Nina's still have a huge RNA/-PNA pattern in the means with a positive height anomaly over the Aleutians and a negative height anomaly over Western Canada.....so if you want big snow you need to get it during periods when the PNA goes against the mean pattern and/or you need a big block to buckle the northern stream or you need some sort of southern stream and good timing/phasing...like early Feb 1996.....our latitude doesn't really support big snow winters in this setup....

[BethesdaWX]

1st, we really don't know how negative it will be.....but -QBO/-NAO La Nina's still have a huge RNA/-PNA pattern in the means with a positive height anomaly over the Aleutians and a negative height anomaly over Western Canada.....so if you want big snow you need to get it during periods when the PNA goes against the mean pattern and/or you need a big block to buckle the northern stream or you need some sort of southern stream and good timing/phasing...like early Feb 1996.....our latitude doesn't really support big snow winters in this setup....

thanks for the info

I think I understand you and agree if so, which is why I don't feel to comfortable with La Nina in general, it probably takes an anomalous forcer to drive a +PNA?

I assume the -QBO may bring huge bust potential? Correct me if I'm wrong but from what I know, in the means, the -QBO sucks for us in a La Nina more than a +QBO usually would since there seems to be more SE ridge in -QBO, but a healthy -AO/-NAO could deliver more snowfall in a -QBO than a +QBO because the SE ridge is more of a natural feature in -QBO winters so a supressed SE ridge rather than no SE ridge could help us avoid some of the misses we had last winter and maybe get in a few good southern sliders? But if the -AO/-NAO are a no show especially with a -QBO we could be stuck with a warm pattern for several weeks? Just trying to figure the whole thing out.

[Deck Pic]

thanks for the info

I think I understand you and agree if so, which is why I don't feel to comfortable with La Nina in general, it probably takes an anomalous forcer to drive a +PNA?

I assume the -QBO may bring huge bust potential? Correct me if I'm wrong but from what I know, in the means, the -QBO sucks for us in a La Nina more than a +QBO usually would since there seems to be more SE ridge in -QBO, but a healthy -AO/-NAO could deliver more snowfall in a -QBO than a +QBO because the SE ridge is more of a natural feature in -QBO winters so a supressed SE ridge rather than no SE ridge could help us avoid some of the misses we had last winter and maybe get in a few good southern sliders? But if the -AO/-NAO are a no show especially with a -QBO we could be stuck with a warm pattern for several weeks? Just trying to figure the whole thing out.

It is not easy to figure out....especially because these correlations are just tendencies in the means and don't mean discrete events can't act differently....sometimes -PNA anomaly can be pretty weak, usually if Nina is weak....I am no expert, but I don't see any reason to expect that Nina/-PDO won't be real and meaningful and our predominant pattern....That is why it is good to pay attention to Wes and others in the winter....ORH and Coastal are 2 mets not from our region, but they also have a very good understanding of the pattern we need for good snow and our climatology.......but I don't think we should get all gung ho about these west based NAO's and displaced PV's....I think without a southern stream they aren't really that great for us, even though some people get all hot and bothered and excited when they show up on guidance...we really want to see a legit +PNA with a more relaxed NAO block and a trough near newfoundland....It can happen in NIna and you just have to score when it does....I remember last year the guidance was trying to show a quasi split flow....not sure if it ever materialized....But that can also happen and if you can get the streams to interact or phase you can get something cool...like 1/25/2000.....I guess I am rambling , but the unfortunate fact is that we want to see the PAC pattern not act like it is supposed to act and will act much of the time....La Nina sucks, but I still think we do better than last winter.....

[BethesdaWX]

It is not easy to figure out....especially because these correlations are just tendencies in the means and don't mean discrete events can't act differently....sometimes -PNA anomaly can be pretty weak, usually if Nina is weak....I am no expert, but I don't see any reason to expect that Nina/-PDO won't be real and meaningful and our predominant pattern....That is why it is good to pay attention to Wes and others in the winter....ORH and Coastal are 2 mets not from our region, but they also have a very good understanding of the pattern we need for good snow and our climatology.......but I don't think we should get all gung ho about these west based NAO's and displaced PV's....I think without a southern stream they aren't really that great for us, even though some people get all hot and bothered and excited when they show up on guidance...we really want to see a legit +PNA with a more relaxed NAO block and a trough near newfoundland....It can happen in NIna and you just have to score when it does....I remember last year the guidance was trying to show a quasi split flow....not sure if it ever materialized....But that can also happen and if you can get the streams to interact or phase you can get something cool...like 1/25/2000.....I guess I am rambling , but the unfortunate fact is that we want to see the PAC pattern not act like it is supposed to act and will act much of the time....La Nina sucks, but I still think we do better than last winter.....

Thanks, learning alot since joining here. I looked at the CPC -PDO mean/avg and you're right, it seems usually warmer and drier during -PDO phase La Nina with a -1.0 ONI or lower, unless the SOI was very high. I'm really just watching how everything unfolds now, because I have no idea what to expect. Hoping for a few brief periods of favorable teleconnections and a few good storms rather than nickel-dime crap.

Also I noticed that according to the CPC, we averaged much more snow with El Nino during the -PDO 30yr phase than El Nino in the +PDO 30yr phase. In La Nina, according to the CPC, snowfall during -PDO La Ninas actually averaged higher than +PDO La Ninas, but that could be a few storms scewing the mean maybe

[ORH_wxman]

It is not easy to figure out....especially because these correlations are just tendencies in the means and don't mean discrete events can't act differently....sometimes -PNA anomaly can be pretty weak, usually if Nina is weak....I am no expert, but I don't see any reason to expect that Nina/-PDO won't be real and meaningful and our predominant pattern....That is why it is good to pay attention to Wes and others in the winter....ORH and Coastal are 2 mets not from our region, but they also have a very good understanding of the pattern we need for good snow and our climatology.......but I don't think we should get all gung ho about these west based NAO's and displaced PV's....I think without a southern stream they aren't really that great for us, even though some people get all hot and bothered and excited when they show up on guidance...we really want to see a legit +PNA with a more relaxed NAO block and a trough near newfoundland....It can happen in NIna and you just have to score when it does....I remember last year the guidance was trying to show a quasi split flow....not sure if it ever materialized....But that can also happen and if you can get the streams to interact or phase you can get something cool...like 1/25/2000.....I guess I am rambling , but the unfortunate fact is that we want to see the PAC pattern not act like it is supposed to act and will act much of the time....La Nina sucks, but I still think we do better than last winter.....

I think your post was pretty good even if you thought you were rambling. I made a post earlier about DCA's good snow events in La Ninas and you hit it well...you are def looking for temporary spikes in the PNA assuming we have a mean -PNA. Last year we saw this with help from the MJO...the 2nd half of January spiked a nice +PNA and that helped drive that Jan 26 system just far enough south for a good event in DC/BWI.

The other is what you mentioned, a nice split flow, but you still want a ridge out west. The split flow helps keep systems further south than they might otherwise be...Jan '96 case in point. Mar 1-2, 2009 was a quasi split flow and a nice ridge once again in the PNA region. Feb 2006 had a monster ridge out west.

Without the STJ active, that is def what you want to look for. Even with the active STJ you like a lot of ridging out there, but at least there's a little more margin for error (like Feb 5-6, 2010 was kind of meh out there).

So basically if I'm in DCA this winter, I'm looking for strong MJO waves going into phase 7/8/1 to help force a +PNA in addition to of course rooting for a -NAO. Or hope for a completely random uptick in STJ activity like Feb 1996 saw (and at times in 1967), but that was a very weak first year La Nina and unlike our current PAC setup, so it probably wouldn't happen again.

[usedtobe]

I think your post was pretty good even if you thought you were rambling. I made a post earlier about DCA's good snow events in La Ninas and you hit it well...you are def looking for temporary spikes in the PNA assuming we have a mean -PNA. Last year we saw this with help from the MJO...the 2nd half of January spiked a nice +PNA and that helped drive that Jan 26 system just far enough south for a good event in DC/BWI.

The other is what you mentioned, a nice split flow, but you still want a ridge out west. The split flow helps keep systems further south than they might otherwise be...Jan '96 case in point. Mar 1-2, 2009 was a quasi split flow and a nice ridge once again in the PNA region. Feb 2006 had a monster ridge out west.

Without the STJ active, that is def what you want to look for. Even with the active STJ you like a lot of ridging out there, but at least there's a little more margin for error (like Feb 5-6, 2010 was kind of meh out there).

So basically if I'm in DCA this winter, I'm looking for strong MJO waves going into phase 7/8/1 to help force a +PNA in addition to of course rooting for a -NAO. Or hope for a completely random uptick in STJ activity like Feb 1996 saw (and at times in 1967), but that was a very weak first year La Nina and unlike our current PAC setup, so it probably wouldn't happen again.

I agree, I also thought it it was pretty good.

[mitchnick]

OK, make or break with this theory

DEC QBO dropped to -16.25, so it did not flat line

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

time is running out, but it's not too late to save the winter