HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Live by the models die by the models....excellent forecasters pay attention to model trends, bias, etc and their goal is to out perform the models. Of course. Not pick the best model in the current run. Of course. All these guys are forecasting what the next run will do based on the trend trying to out perform the models. The posts I disagreed with were not forecasting what the next run will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 We're just going in circles now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 We're just going in circles now.... Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 We're just going in circles now.... Sometimes it's best to sit back and enjoy the ride, it's probably too early to examine the synoptic setup in detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 GFS ensemble mean- east of Hatteras by a fair amount with every member east of the Op at 120, then it brushes Cape Cod. If the new Euro is east, well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 GFS ensemble mean- east of Hatteras by a fair amount with every member east of the Op at 120, then it brushes Cape Cod. If the new Euro is east, well.... That would certainly add a lot of weight to the fish scenario. Very curious to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Most hurricanes bias E of the the NWP guidance once inside of 3 days and especially 48 hours up here...and from memory, I think this is generally true in the NC area as well, though Isabel went to the left of guidance in that time frame, but seems to be an exception. Obviously our sample size isn't huge, but it is what it is. But, we are not anywhere remotely near those time frames yet, so people should really not make too many assumptions yet. There is a pretty decent ridge in the Atlantic which will put a "cap" on how far east this can go. We don't know that value so obviously that doesn't help a ton, but its still a factor to consider when thinking about model trends at 114 hours out. We also do not know how deep the first GL trough will dig which could sort of "Grab" Irene a little and tug her north...if not, then she might continue a bit west longer than guidance shows. Another unknown that we have no idea on. But this is just to throw out a few uncertainties and try to measure them given the time frame we are dealing with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 If this fishes, it will be one of the most spectacular burns in Eastern/AmWx history. I can't recall another fish that seemed so hardwired for USA landfall, based on days and days of runs from such a diverse suite of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 If this fishes, it will be one of the most spectacular burns in Eastern/AmWx history. I can't recall another fish that seemed so hardwired for USA landfall, based on days and days of runs from such a diverse suite of models. Not just us, all of the met community including NHC- there will be a lot of weatherman bashing among the great unwashed masses... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I have wondered one thing, isn't it true that the globals on occasion tend to under-play the ridging in the longer range (Like, 4+ days out)? I was talking to someone who works in the field last season and said it had something to due in the Westward shift in the Earl Trend for a time last season. I do not recall when exactly the west shift took place, I don't mean to clutter the thread, this has just has been sticking out in my mind lately. Edit: The Euro has Initialized...let the nail-biting begin .In the exact spot as 12z had forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Not just us, all of the met community including NHC- there will be a lot of weatherman bashing among the great unwashed masses... Yeah, for sure. Can you remember any other fish that was so consistently shown by so many models over so many days to hit the USA? I honestly can't think of one. I think this will be a real novelty if it misses OBX and ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Euro rolling, to 24. Will it hold serve??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Most hurricanes bias E of the the NWP guidance once inside of 3 days and especially 48 hours up here...and from memory, I think this is generally true in the NC area as well, though Isabel went to the left of guidance in that time frame, but seems to be an exception. Obviously our sample size isn't huge, but it is what it is. But, we are not anywhere remotely near those time frames yet, so people should really not make too many assumptions yet. There is a pretty decent ridge in the Atlantic which will put a "cap" on how far east this can go. We don't know that value so obviously that doesn't help a ton, but its still a factor to consider when thinking about model trends at 114 hours out. We also do not know how deep the first GL trough will dig which could sort of "Grab" Irene a little and tug her north...if not, then she might continue a bit west longer than guidance shows. Another unknown that we have no idea on. But this is just to throw out a few uncertainties and try to measure them given the time frame we are dealing with. At least living where I do has prepared me for this stuff, I cant think of any storm were I was like "yep we gonna get hit" outside of 24 hrs of actually getting hit regardless of what the models show. However once this thing gets west of 75W I get worried cause then it has to pull some crazy moves to not come through my neck of the woods. I will say though if Irene gets to 79W and then somehow goes around NC without a landfall but then hits further north its gonna be a new one on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Euro to 36, so far so good, no change from 12Z, a bit slower with a stronger ridge than the GFS at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 If this fishes, it will be one of the most spectacular burns in Eastern/AmWx history. I can't recall another fish that seemed so hardwired for USA landfall, based on days and days of runs from such a diverse suite of models. Eduard 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Through 48 no major change, but the storm is stronger and a bit bigger too. Looks like it will go east of 12z tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Eduard 1996 That was only ever a NE landfall...it hugged 70W. It wasn't forecasted to hit the Carolinas in this time range IIRC. But perhaps my memory is off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Eduard 1996 Oh, yeah. I had just moved to CA and was not tracking that year. I know everyone in the Northeast considers it a crushing disappointment. Was it consistently modeled to make a firm landfall? Sorry to go OT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Eduard 1996 Forecast models were rather drab in 1996, long-range accuracy was less reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'll be surprised if the Euro isn't E...the ridge in the ATL is further E and weaker and the first trough in the Great Lakes is deeper. This will want to bring it north earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 60 hrs- south of the GFS, a small fraction north of the 12Z run, I doubt this run misses the NC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 FWIW, the only models that miss the east coast this cycle are the CMC and NOGAPS, and they did the same at 12z too. Still waiting on the ECMWF, but I'd imagine it won't change much because it's in basically the exact same position as 12z at 66 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Near the tail end of 2005's epic season, we had TC nearing hurricane strength out in the Atlantic over 75F waters That's because the temperatures aloft were anomalously cold. NHC hurricane specialist Lixion Avila made mention in one discussion late that season of the difference between SST and 200 mb temperatures being a key factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Oh, yeah. I had just moved to CA and was not tracking that year. I know everyone in the Northeast considers it a crushing disappointment. Was it consistently modeled to make a firm landfall? Sorry to go OT... I didn't even know where to get model runs at that point I was 14. I just remember getting excited and listening to TWC sear it was going to turn west for 3 days, it never did, and just thinking about it was why I was so pissed earlier in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 That was only ever a NE landfall...it hugged 70W. It wasn't forecasted to hit the Carolinas in this time range IIRC. But perhaps my memory is off. I remember it was forecast to basically bisect Long Island and make landfall near the Nassau Suffolk border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Oh, yeah. I had just moved to CA and was not tracking that year. I know everyone in the Northeast considers it a crushing disappointment. Was it consistently modeled to make a firm landfall? Sorry to go OT... Man don't make me relive that disappointment! Models goofed on that one and tried to phase Edouard with the deepening inland trough, giving epic virtual landfalls from Ocean City MD to Long Island. Only the GFDL was right in keeping the storm chugging north along 70 W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Man don't make me relive that disappointment! Models goofed on that one and tried to phase Edouard with the deepening inland trough, giving epic virtual landfalls from Ocean City MD to Long Island. Only the GFDL was right in keeping the storm chugging north along 70 W. Yep-- I remember this distinctly. Lots of weekend plans were altered because of that nonevent. That storm almost seemed a hold over from 1995, when almost every storm (besides Fran and Opal) never made it west of 70 W-- Felix was the trend setter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Man don't make me relive that disappointment! Models goofed on that one and tried to phase Edouard with the deepening inland trough, giving epic virtual landfalls from Ocean City MD to Long Island. Only the GFDL was right in keeping the storm chugging north along 70 W. I remember we were in a Hurricane Watch here in Jersey and I don't believe it even got overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I didn't even know where to get model runs at that point I was 15. I just remember getting excited and listening to TWC sear it was going to turn west for 3 days, it never did, and just thinking about it was why I was so pissed earlier in this thread. I remember it was forecast to basically bisect Long Island and make landfall near the Nassau Suffolk border. Man don't make me relive that disappointment! Models goofed on that one and tried to phase Edouard with the deepening inland trough, giving epic virtual landfalls from Ocean City MD to Long Island. Only the GFDL was right in keeping the storm chugging north along 70 W. It sounds tragic. I'm glad I was taking a break from my inner weather weenie that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I think a couple of points need to be said: 1) 72 hours before Hurricane Katrina made landfall in Louisiana, New Orleans wasn't even in the forecast cone. 2) I see this on TV: 'Model consensus says the hurricane will be near such and such...' Model consensus does not equal model accuracy as the consensus is subject to wild shifts. Remember a couple of days before Hurricane Ike made landfall, the consensus was near Port Lavaca, well landfall was nowhere near Port Lavaca. Hence my recent screed, rant, etc. about public hurricane forecasts beyond 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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