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Hurricane Irene Model and Forecast Discussion


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I'll take complete model consensus over history every time.

And it has happened before.

Sure has and at even higher latitudes than this. Storms have bended NW and hit Maine before.

There is amazing consistency between the models right now.

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I have a hard time believing it will "lurch" back N or NNW as it approaches here. How many times has that ever happened?

I'll admit I know virtually nothing about the science of weather and am on here to learn and to track, but I absolutely hate this kind of argument.

"How many times has a baseball team comeback from 10-0 down to win a game.", "How many times has a soccer team won a game trailing 2-0 with 15mins to play", etc, etc

Who cares what the chances were in the past? All that matters is now, and all it takes is once.

"How many times has a car ran a red light and has been fine? Often? Ok, I'll run this red lig.....SPLAT"

Stupid way of thinking.

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Really interesting track....looks like that trough you were talking about is "pulling" the storm in.

Yea... a day later than the ECWMF was showing about four runs back, but I'll take it arrowheadsmiley.png

On a more serious note, this has some pretty major implications on the inland flooding rainfall track, with folks further west getting into the action (even *Gasp* Albany, NY)

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the new hpc 5 day qpf is impressive to say the least!

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

Yea... a day later than the ECWMF was showing about four runs back, but I'll take it arrowheadsmiley.png

On a more serious note, this has some pretty major implications on the inland flooding rainfall track, with folks further west getting into the action (even *Gasp* Albany, NY)

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Yea... a day later than the ECWMF was showing about four runs back, but I'll take it arrowheadsmiley.png

On a more serious note, this has some pretty major implications on the inland flooding rainfall track, with folks further west getting into the action (even *Gasp* Albany, NY)

People are comparing this to Floyd, but I believe this has all the earmarks of being even worse, believe it or not (even if the rainfall amounts are somewhat less.) Back in 1999 we were in the middle of an extended hot and dry period, a drought as a matter of fact. Completely the opposite this summer (well we had our extreme heat but it was only in July) and August has given us an amazing turnaround, and Philly has already had a record rainy month. I've already had 12.5 inches of rain this month and if this storm maximizes its rainfall potential I could have my first ever 20" rainfall month.

And I also had a feeling of deja vu after seeing that GFS track; hmmmm where have I seen this before, oh yeah, the Euro....

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People are comparing this to Floyd, but I believe this has all the earmarks of being even worse, believe it or not (even if the rainfall amounts are somewhat less.) Back in 1999 we were in the middle of an extended hot and dry period, a drought as a matter of fact. Completely the opposite this summer (well we had our extreme heat but it was only in July) and August has given us an amazing turnaround, and Philly has already had a record rainy month. I've already had 12.5 inches of rain this month and if this storm maximizes its rainfall potential I could have my first ever 20" rainfall month.

And I also had a feeling of deja vu after seeing that GFS track; hmmmm where have I seen this before, oh yeah, the Euro....

floyd was marked for heavy rain and wind. If your saying this storm is worse, yet not as heavy rainfall amts, then what is your argument/? There was considrable flooding in baltimore, with many streets closed . And this was due to , I think, 6 IN of rain.Ellicott city, Md was so flooded, that they rebuilt the bridge went over the river in an arc instead of a flat bridge. I know the little historic town very well as I travel it to my church every sunday. I remember the flooding in ellicott city. Half of it was under water. IN baltimore, the business where I worked, at the time, was under water. streets were close because of the water level. This was due to 6 in of rain. If we get more than that tomorrow and sunday, It will be a real disaster.,

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I have a hard time believing it will "lurch" back N or NNW as it approaches here. How many times has that ever happened?

not this time.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/avnloopnew.html

mouse over the 30 to 48 hour panels and pay attention to the 500 mb height pattern near the upper right corner. the ridge builds west at the same time the hurricane comes north, pushing it into the new york bight

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not this time.

http://www.meteo.psu...avnloopnew.html

mouse over the 30 to 48 hour panels and pay attention to the 500 mb height pattern near the upper right corner. the ridge builds west at the same time the hurricane comes north, pushing it into the new york bight

I guess in a diffluent flow regime, Hurricanes move 45 degrees to the left of the flow. Hence they are getting absorbed into the jet stream as the move along it. This may explain why a new height contour appers south of Irene every 6 hours.

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floyd was marked for heavy rain and wind. If your saying this storm is worse, yet not as heavy rainfall amts, then what is your argument/? There was considrable flooding in baltimore, with many streets closed . And this was due to , I think, 6 IN of rain.Ellicott city, Md was so flooded, that they rebuilt the bridge went over the river in an arc instead of a flat bridge. I know the little historic town very well as I travel it to my church every sunday. I remember the flooding in ellicott city. Half of it was under water. IN baltimore, the business where I worked, at the time, was under water. streets were close because of the water level. This was due to 6 in of rain. If we get more than that tomorrow and sunday, It will be a real disaster.,

My argument is that we've already had over a foot of rain in the past 2 weeks up here, the grounds are super saturated and it will only take an inch of rain to cause flash flooding right now. Floyd dropped 17" of rain in Westchester, so by "not as heavy" I mean we're still going to get 6-12" But that will cause much more flooding because of how much rain we've already had in the past 2 weeks.

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My argument is that we've already had over a foot of rain in the past 2 weeks up here, the grounds are super saturated and it will only take an inch of rain to cause flash flooding right now. Floyd dropped 17" of rain in Westchester, so by "not as heavy" I mean we're still going to get 6-12" But that will cause much more flooding because of how much rain we've already had in the past 2 weeks.

Agree... the fact that its been so wet recently makes up for the fact that this even might be slightly less intense in the rainfall department. That plus the pending storm surge potential really gives Irene the potential to have a much larger impact on metro NYC than Floyd ever did.

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Agree... the fact that its been so wet recently makes up for the fact that this even might be slightly less intense in the rainfall department. That plus the pending storm surge potential really gives Irene the potential to have a much larger impact on metro NYC than Floyd ever did.

Not only that, but the supersaturated soil will provide grounds for trees to go down and be uprooted even with mediocre winds, so when the hurricane force gusts are in NYC, I expect a lot of central park/other trees to see some damage.

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Not only that, but the supersaturated soil will provide grounds for trees to go down and be uprooted even with mediocre winds, so when the hurricane force gusts are in NYC, I expect a lot of central park/other trees to see some damage.

We'll see... I'm a lot less optimistic about the wind potential as opposed to the rain potential, but yes even winds at around 40-50 mph could cause a lot of damage with the soil so moist.

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We'll see... I'm a lot less optimistic about the wind potential as opposed to the rain potential, but yes even winds at around 40-50 mph could cause a lot of damage with the soil so moist.

Yeah I see where you're coming from, only expecting gusts to 60 east of Baltimore here tomorrow with sustained 35-45, but that'll do the damage, especially with all the leaves on the trees and it battering us for 18 hours.

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Yeah I see where you're coming from, only expecting gusts to 60 east of Baltimore here tomorrow with sustained 35-45, but that'll do the damage, especially with all the leaves on the trees and it battering us for 18 hours.

Even that might be a little high. This isn't another Isabel as far as winds go.

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Agree... the fact that its been so wet recently makes up for the fact that this even might be slightly less intense in the rainfall department. That plus the pending storm surge potential really gives Irene the potential to have a much larger impact on metro NYC than Floyd ever did.

What Floyd was to Philadelphia Irene could be to NYC...only with storm surge added to the fun.

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I'll admit I know virtually nothing about the science of weather and am on here to learn and to track, but I absolutely hate this kind of argument.

"How many times has a baseball team comeback from 10-0 down to win a game.", "How many times has a soccer team won a game trailing 2-0 with 15mins to play", etc, etc

Who cares what the chances were in the past? All that matters is now, and all it takes is once.

"How many times has a car ran a red light and has been fine? Often? Ok, I'll run this red lig.....SPLAT"

Stupid way of thinking.

Climatology/history is one very significant consideration in weather forecasting.

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Another disco from Mount Holly/Philly about jet dynamics keeping Irene from weakening as much as cooler waters and land interaction would disctate.

MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG

250 MB JET NORTH OF THE HURRICANE INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE

EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL JET

EVEN HAS SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT AND GIVEN THE ORIENTATION

OF THIS JET IT IS SUCH THAT IRENE IS WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE

REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THIS SCENARIO MAY TEND TO HELP WITH

A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY

OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. THEREFORE, DESPITE SOME INCREASING SHEAR

AS THE HURRICANE GAINES LATITUDE ALONG WITH COOLER WATERS AND LAND

INTERACTIONS, PERHAPS THIS IS WHY MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NEARLY

INSISTS THIS SYSTEM MAINTAINS A RATHER LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE ALL THE

WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

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