uncle W Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 From ABC: 4-8' surge in NYC 10' on Long Island, with gusts to around 80 mph in the city and 100 mph on Long Island, rainfall of 8-12" that would be near record wind territory for the city...My house won't flood but I'm worried about the trees to the south and west of my house...We should see strong easterly winds become westerly after the eye passes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Any hard-number estimates? So far, I haven't seen any. Even my local NWS statement doesn't include that information. Some discussion in the Storm Surge thread and in the NYC regional thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 that would be near record wind territory for the city...My house won't flood but I'm worried about the trees to the south and west of my house...We should see strong easterly winds become westerly after the eye passes... Lets see what sort of gusts we get reported, official and unofficial out of NC...if we are getting few gusts over 100 down there it would not bode well at all for anything widespread over 80 for locations other than the immediate beaches once we get to C NJ and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Lets see what sort of gusts we get reported, official and unofficial out of NC...if we are getting few gusts over 100 down there it would not bode well at all for anything widespread over 80 for locations other than the immediate beaches once we get to C NJ and LI. I suspect the only places that break 80 will be buoys, lighthouses, and maybe a random ASOS on LI. Unofficial reports, not sure how much faith to put into them. Even 70 won't be widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 18Z GFDL still west to the Hudson valley, HWRF is right along the NHC track. HWRF does deepen the storm a bit, GFDL does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Also, I don't need to feel better, as I feel just fine . The GFS has performed admirably (again) for this storm (though likely not quite as good as the EC for track). I actually learn a lot by reading other people's analysis of our operational system (good and bad).... I seem to remember Dean (2007) being forecasted for days on end (consistently) by the GFS, even prior to genesis; but nothing quite like what's been observed with Irene. Very true! Great work!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The next intersting thing to watch will be when that line negative vorticity moves over Irene at around 1:pM. The storm accelorates right after it breaks through it. Irene will undergo some sort of transition after that, I don't know what it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/08/26/irene-slowly-weakening-but-still-has-massive-storm-surge-potential-for-north-carolina/ Final Map Update and discussion... again not much has changed track-wise as I still expect landfall between Morehead City and the Outer Banks, with a second landfall in Atlantic City, NJ. Intensity is down obviously due to the weaker intensity. I no longer have Irene a hurricane for the second landfall, although its very close as a strong tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
violinist Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The next intersting thing to watch will be when that line negative vorticity moves over Irene at around 1:pM. The storm accelorates right after it breaks through it. Irene will undergo some sort of transition after that, I don't know what it will be. what is line negative vorticity?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 00z NAM just trended like 30 miles west. Holy tropical Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 00z NAM just trended like 30 miles west. Holy tropical Storm Hmmm......Looks like 12z Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Hmmm......Looks like 12z Euro! yea i said that in our thread, but ray said it initialized to far west by .2 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 yea i said that in our thread, but ray said it initialized to far west by .2 degrees. How big is .2 degrees in a sense? Not to ask a stupid question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 yea i said that in our thread, but ray said it initialized to far west by .2 degrees. actually it close to 0.22 degrees so you'll should be good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 actually it close to 0.22 degrees so you'll should be good... LOL. But seriously though. .2 or .22. Is that a really big error? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If NAM verifies, I'm predicting some Hudson River flooding: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 00z NAM just trended like 30 miles west. Holy tropical Storm This will be worse for inland flooding and coastal flooding in a way. More of an easterly component. yea, the wind damage might not be as bad but the other 2 will. Even if all of NJ is reduced to a Tropical Storm warning, it'll probably end up being the worst tropical storm in history. EDIT : forgot to mention increased tornadic threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Hmmm......Looks like 12z Euro! Well, if that track pans out and the associated hi-res QPF of the NAM is even close to being accurate, the flooding will indeed be epic from the mid-Atlantic into NY. EDIT: Sorry, LEK, you beat me to it this time. Great minds do think alike. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This will be worse for inland flooding and coastal flooding in a way. More of an easterly component. yea, the wind damage might not be as bad but the other 2 will. Even if all of NJ is reduced to a Tropical Storm warning, it'll probably end up being the worst tropical storm in history. EDIT : forgot to mention increased tornadic threat. Even on this board, I've seen people, especially those inland, root for weakening, expecting it to reduce the impacts. Sorry to say, but total rainfall won't vary much if you've got a 90kt hurricane or a 60kt tropical storm on its way down. At this point, it's track and forward speed that will influence total rainfall and therefore flooding potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 LOL. But seriously though. .2 or .22. Is that a really big error? Who knows, my guess is that it's not that significant with a storm that is so large but maybe someone like DTK could give a more reasoned response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 actually it close to 0.22 degrees so you'll should be good... Thats about 20 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Even on this board, I've seen people, especially those inland, root for weakening, expecting it to reduce the impacts. Sorry to say, but total rainfall won't vary much if you've got a 90kt hurricane or a 60kt tropical storm on its way down. At this point, it's track and forward speed that will influence total rainfall and therefore flooding potential. It also is function of frontogenesis taking place as the storm transitions. That's why the precip field start expanding northward ahead of the storm. The front then acts as a lifting mechanism for all the tropical moisture that has been pulled into the circulation associated with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 http://philstropical...north-carolina/ Good track I think, but I believe that it will not weaken as much as you have, especially as it makes landfall in NC, it should stay steady or maybe go down to 95mph, but then we are splitting hairs- the surge is the big thing anyway, that should be a lot higher than a "normal" cat 1..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 LOL. But seriously though. .2 or .22. Is that a really big error? I should had put #sarcasm at the end apparently. (e.g., a joke). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Well, if that track pans out and the associated hi-res QPF of the NAM is even close to being accurate, the flooding will indeed be epic from the mid-Atlantic into NY. EDIT: Sorry, LEK, you beat me to it this time. Great minds do think alike. :-) Excuse the one liner, but: DC back in the game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I should had put #sarcasm at the end apparently. (e.g., a joke). LOL i know. Its all good. so .22 is 20 miles and one or 2 sidewalk squares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Even on this board, I've seen people, especially those inland, root for weakening, expecting it to reduce the impacts. Sorry to say, but total rainfall won't vary much if you've got a 90kt hurricane or a 60kt tropical storm on its way down. At this point, it's track and forward speed that will influence total rainfall and therefore flooding potential. The problem is when people hear it on the news that Irene's been downgraded to a tropical storm....the casual citizens watching all of a sudden feel like - "weeeeee, the storm is nothing...we could go out and play now" Even if it's downgraded to a TS before striking NC, it still needs to be taken just as seriously. (even if it's just because of the rain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 NAM and GFS both slower. = more rain possibly for mid-atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 00z GFS at landfall: 970.0 right over NYC Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 00Z GFS Precip shield for Irene: some places get over 8 inches of rain Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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