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Hurricane Irene Model and Forecast Discussion


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From ABC: 4-8' surge in NYC 10' on Long Island, with gusts to around 80 mph in the city and 100 mph on Long Island, rainfall of 8-12"

that would be near record wind territory for the city...My house won't flood but I'm worried about the trees to the south and west of my house...We should see strong easterly winds become westerly after the eye passes...

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that would be near record wind territory for the city...My house won't flood but I'm worried about the trees to the south and west of my house...We should see strong easterly winds become westerly after the eye passes...

Lets see what sort of gusts we get reported, official and unofficial out of NC...if we are getting few gusts over 100 down there it would not bode well at all for anything widespread over 80 for locations other than the immediate beaches once we get to C NJ and LI.

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Lets see what sort of gusts we get reported, official and unofficial out of NC...if we are getting few gusts over 100 down there it would not bode well at all for anything widespread over 80 for locations other than the immediate beaches once we get to C NJ and LI.

I suspect the only places that break 80 will be buoys, lighthouses, and maybe a random ASOS on LI. Unofficial reports, not sure how much faith to put into them. Even 70 won't be widespread.

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Also, I don't need to feel better, as I feel just fine :thumbsup:. The GFS has performed admirably (again) for this storm (though likely not quite as good as the EC for track). I actually learn a lot by reading other people's analysis of our operational system (good and bad)....

I seem to remember Dean (2007) being forecasted for days on end (consistently) by the GFS, even prior to genesis; but nothing quite like what's been observed with Irene.

Very true! Great work!!

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The next intersting thing to watch will be when that line negative vorticity moves over Irene at around 1:pM. The storm accelorates right after it breaks through it. Irene will undergo some sort of transition after that, I don't know what it will be.

post-673-0-74240600-1314405563.gif

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http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/08/26/irene-slowly-weakening-but-still-has-massive-storm-surge-potential-for-north-carolina/

Final Map Update and discussion... again not much has changed track-wise as I still expect landfall between Morehead City and the Outer Banks, with a second landfall in Atlantic City, NJ. Intensity is down obviously due to the weaker intensity. I no longer have Irene a hurricane for the second landfall, although its very close as a strong tropical storm.

2rogr5e.png

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The next intersting thing to watch will be when that line negative vorticity moves over Irene at around 1:pM. The storm accelorates right after it breaks through it. Irene will undergo some sort of transition after that, I don't know what it will be.

post-673-0-74240600-1314405563.gif

what is line negative vorticity??

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00z NAM just trended like 30 miles west. Holy tropical Storm

This will be worse for inland flooding and coastal flooding in a way. More of an easterly component.

yea, the wind damage might not be as bad but the other 2 will.

Even if all of NJ is reduced to a Tropical Storm warning, it'll probably end up being the worst tropical storm in history.

EDIT : forgot to mention increased tornadic threat.

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Hmmm......Looks like 12z Euro!

Well, if that track pans out and the associated hi-res QPF of the NAM is even close to being accurate, the flooding will indeed be epic from the mid-Atlantic into NY.

nam_p60_060l.gif

EDIT: Sorry, LEK, you beat me to it this time. Great minds do think alike. :-)

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This will be worse for inland flooding and coastal flooding in a way. More of an easterly component.

yea, the wind damage might not be as bad but the other 2 will.

Even if all of NJ is reduced to a Tropical Storm warning, it'll probably end up being the worst tropical storm in history.

EDIT : forgot to mention increased tornadic threat.

Even on this board, I've seen people, especially those inland, root for weakening, expecting it to reduce the impacts. Sorry to say, but total rainfall won't vary much if you've got a 90kt hurricane or a 60kt tropical storm on its way down. At this point, it's track and forward speed that will influence total rainfall and therefore flooding potential.

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Even on this board, I've seen people, especially those inland, root for weakening, expecting it to reduce the impacts. Sorry to say, but total rainfall won't vary much if you've got a 90kt hurricane or a 60kt tropical storm on its way down. At this point, it's track and forward speed that will influence total rainfall and therefore flooding potential.

It also is function of frontogenesis taking place as the storm transitions. That's why the precip field start expanding northward ahead of the storm. The front then acts as a lifting mechanism for all the tropical moisture that has been pulled into the circulation associated with the storm.

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Good track I think, but I believe that it will not weaken as much as you have, especially as it makes landfall in NC, it should stay steady or maybe go down to 95mph, but then we are splitting hairs- the surge is the big thing anyway, that should be a

lot higher than a "normal" cat 1.....

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Even on this board, I've seen people, especially those inland, root for weakening, expecting it to reduce the impacts. Sorry to say, but total rainfall won't vary much if you've got a 90kt hurricane or a 60kt tropical storm on its way down. At this point, it's track and forward speed that will influence total rainfall and therefore flooding potential.

The problem is when people hear it on the news that Irene's been downgraded to a tropical storm....the casual citizens watching all of a sudden feel like - "weeeeee, the storm is nothing...we could go out and play now"

Even if it's downgraded to a TS before striking NC, it still needs to be taken just as seriously. (even if it's just because of the rain)

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