Cheeznado Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Euro sticking to its west guns, over eastern NC, briefly over water then into Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Euro sticking to its west guns, over eastern NC, briefly over water than into Jersey. It also shows a 954 low near NYC. The Euro must think Irene is really going to get stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 As noted by NWS Philly/Mt Holly, mentioned by me, and then mentioned again on TWC last night (and they gave credit to NWS Philly) very favorable jet structure may come in to play to compensate for loss of tropical processes at higher latitudes. And large size suggests slower decrease in strength. also an excellent signal for a PRE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
violinist Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 also an excellent signal for a PRE what does PRE mean?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 what does PRE mean?? Precursor Rainfall Event, I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Precursor Rainfall EventI believe Predecessor is P, but yeah. Basically warm, moist advection from the hurricane interacts with a pre-existing boundary/jet streak to produce a significant rainfall event >1000 km away from the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It also shows a 954 low near NYC. The Euro must think Irene is really going to get stronger. The intensity isn't to be taken literally. What the Euro probably sees is the storm getting larger as it approaches the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Predecessor is P, but yeah. Basically warm, moist advection from the hurricane interacts with a pre-existing boundary/jet streak to produce a significant rainfall event >1000 km away from the storm. a lot of dry air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 a lot of dry air... What in the world does dry air on the western side of the storm have to do with warm, moist advection from the other side of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 A quick question....how can you get the mb pressure off google earth with the flights like I've seen on here? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What in the world does dry air on the western side of the storm have to do with warm, moist advection from the other side of the storm? Follow wind barbs...flow is off the Southeast, across FL, and into the inflow of the storm. It's not being choked like Don, but it's being impacted. Southeast drought is no picnic...TX-GA....VERY low soil moisture and WV shows VERY dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 a lot of dry air... That's the standard reply and I don't discount it, but at this time of year and in that location...given environmental conditions we should should be looking at a different storm, certainly not a relatively weak Cat 2, give me a paper that tells me why because I don't have the faintest clue (maybe she can't wrap up due to her size?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Follow wind barbs...flow is off the Southeast, across FL, and into the inflow of the storm. It's not being choked like Don, but it's being impacted. Southeast drought is no picnic...TX-GA....VERY low soil moisture and WV shows VERY dry air. Yea, and even though it may not strengthen again, the satellite presentation may improve as in moves further away from that dry air (a la filling in of the cloud/rain bands closer to the center where that void is). I mean the Euro does strengthen it a bit before landfall, but thats up for its own interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 can we keep the dry air conversation to one thread? this one is about models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 please at least give me some mid-level dynamics I can blame this on, maybe at a level not sampled? Any indication of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It seems like there a big speed difference. ECMWF is significantly slower than GFS/Canadian. At 12Z Mon EC is still down over SNE while GFS is near Caribou. Could make a big difference as far as impacts, especially rainfall. EDIT: NM, I see that the graphic I was looking at, in spite of doublechecking the date/time, was in error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What in the world does dry air on the western side of the storm have to do with warm, moist advection from the other side of the storm? nothing at all i clicked reply and didn't mean to add ur comment in....has anyone seen a turn NNE yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It seems like there a big speed difference. ECMWF is significantly slower than GFS/Canadian. At 12Z Mon EC is still down over SNE while GFS is near Caribou. Could make a big difference as far as impacts, especially rainfall. Yep, seems slower=slightly further west solution above 35N Lat....And if you go to the Wonder maps site, overlay last night's Euro position at 18z vs. the NHC position of Irene...Euro has a pretty decent T+12h handle on Irene....not a long time, but since Wondermaps only has the previous run archived it's the best comparison I could do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 anybody think the speed is slow enough that upwelling could be a factor now?? Just curious what folks thought.. not saying that it is, but just an idea. It is a large storm and most likely disrupting a large chunk of Ocean right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just in case... NOUS41 KWBC 261844 PNSWSH Service Change Notice 11-31 National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC 245 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2011 To: Subscribers: -Family of Services -NOAA Weather Wire Service -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network -NOAAPort Other NWS partners and employees From: La Tanya Burton NWS EMWIN Program Manager Subject: Hurricane Irene Emergency Outage for to EMWIN and LRIT users Effective 13:00 EST, Saturday, August 27, 2011 Effective 1550Z on Saturday through 2145Z on Sunday (approximately noon EDT Saturday through 6 pm EDT Sunday) there will be no Low-Rate Information Transmission (LRIT) data available from GOES West satellite (GOES 11). Due to the hurricane threatening Wallops, VA, and antenna issues, control of GOES-11 will be passed to the Fairbanks, AK, Command and Data Acquisition facility which does not have the capability to transmit LRIT data. For users of GOES Data Collection System (DCS) there may also be issues with GOES DCS data from GOES West going into LRIT as well, although DCS data should be available through DOMSAT, through the NWS Telecommunications Gateway and GTS, and from the Emergency Data Distribution Network in South Dakota. There also will not be any Emergency Managers Weather Information Network (EMWIN) data on GOES-West. EMWIN users pointed at GOES-West should switch to the EMWIN byteblaster network to receive EMWIN data during this time. GOES-East will remain broadcasting; however, should that broadcast go down due to the hurricane, please switch to the byteblaster network. If you have questions or concerns about this notice, contact: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 anybody think the speed is slow enough that upwelling could be a factor now?? Just curious what folks thought.. not saying that it is, but just an idea. It is a large storm and most likely disrupting a large chunk of Ocean right now I'm not sure how much of an impact it's having right now. I'd imagine the impact would be lessened as it crosses over the Gulf Stream over the next 12 hours or so, as the warm waters there are deeper. I do think as you get north of the Gulf Stream in the cooler shelf waters, the upwelling could be more of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 anybody think the speed is slow enough that upwelling could be a factor now?? Just curious what folks thought.. not saying that it is, but just an idea. No, I think the structure of the hurricane itself is it's inhibiting factor...too much thermodynamic energy is being transported to the outer bands (which in my opinion are too coiled up...ie close together) to allow intensification....no bands (per latest morphed MW imagery) are feeding into the EW.....It's the same reason that Ike couldn't reintensify and it also is often the issue when a core gets ripped apart when other canes cross mountainous terrain....the wind field expands, dynamics are good for outer portion of storm, but the center is left to just choke.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm not sure how much of an impact it's having right now. I'd imagine the impact would be lessened as it crosses over the Gulf Stream over the next 12 hours or so, as the warm waters there are deeper. I do think as you get north of the Gulf Stream in the cooler shelf waters, the upwelling could be more of an issue. No, I think the structure of the hurricane itself is it's inhibiting factor...too much thermodynamic energy is being transported to the outer bands (which in my opinion are too coiled up...ie close together) to allow intensification....no bands (per latest morphed MW imagery) are feeding into the EW.....It's the same reason that Ike couldn't reintensify and it also is often the issue when a core gets ripped apart when other canes cross mountainous terrain....the wind field expands, dynamics are good for outer portion of storm, but the center is left to just choke.... cool, ok.. thanks for your opinions and thoughts.. makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like 15z SREFs like Morehead City as a mean landfall point... perhaps slightly east of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Well, this may turn out to be true but I sure like how it sniffed out the track days before the GFS. Good point (although it technically wasn't days before the GFS as the first Euro Hatteras type track was only 12 hours ahead of the GFS' first one). Despite the GFS having U.S. hits going all the way back eleven days to 8/15 (keep in mind, however, that it was out of range of the Euro until ~8/17), I have to give the overall edge trackwise to the Euro as it has been sort of leading the way ahead of the GFS by about 12-24 hours since all the way back on Friday, 8/19. Consider these points regarding only the 0Z and 12Z runs: - The Euro only had two runs in which Irene reached the Gulf (1st one was 12Z run of 8/17). To compare, the GFS had four Gulf 0Z/12Z runs since the 12Z 8/17 run. - Last run into the Gulf: 12Z 8/18 for the Euro vs. 12Z 8/19 for the GFS - Last run into S FL: 12Z 8/20 for the Euro vs. 0Z 8/21 for the GFS - Last run into GA or into SC at CHS or below: 12Z 8/21 for the Euro vs. 0Z 8/22 for the GFS So, despite my feeling about the Euro overstrengthening mainly above 30N, it has clearly been superior with the track, overall. Besides, I'm educatedly guessing that the other globals have been mainly too weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 And at least there is a known bias in play that can be dealt with. Intensity has never been the strong point of models with tropical systems. But nailing track is the biggest thing I think. I don't know too many people that actually believed those pressures anyway. I interpreted it as the fact that the models predict a hurricane that will be more like a hurricane at an abnormally high latitude than a transitioning ET cyclone. That seemed to be the best indication of what we were seeing on the Euro...not that a 925 mb storm was going to be sitting at a ridiculously high latitude. Good post. The reason I've been mentioning the high lat. overstrengthening of the Euro since last season is the novelty of a non-tropical global doing this rather consistently plus the respect the Euro gets (and deserves) for track. Whereas the consistent extreme strengthening of both the GFDL and the HWRF has been well-known and therefore has normally been dismissed as far as being likely, I've been worried that the Euro's extreme strengthening wouldn't be so easily dismissed. Whereas many of the red taggers seem to realize this now, I'm sure there are still some who don't and a good number of hobbyists who haven't yet realized it based on posts I've seen. By the way, the 12Z Fri Euro is by far the weakest of the last ten runs above 30N (by 15 mb!) with 943 mb for the strongest above 30N (at 34N, 76W, which is ~20 mb weaker than for that area on the prior seven runs). Part of this is that it intiialized at 957 mb, which is 15 mb weaker than the prior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18UTC model intensity projections continue to look bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Good point (although it technically wasn't days before the GFS as the first Euro Hatteras type track was only 12 hours ahead of the GFS' first one). Despite the GFS having U.S. hits going all the way back eleven days to 8/15 (keep in mind, however, that it was out of range of the Euro until ~8/17), I have to give the overall edge trackwise to the Euro as it has been sort of leading the way ahead of the GFS by about 12-24 hours since all the way back on Friday, 8/19. Consider these points regarding only the 0Z and 12Z runs: - The Euro only had two runs in which Irene reached the Gulf (1st one was 12Z run of 8/17). To compare, the GFS had four Gulf 0Z/12Z runs since the 12Z 8/17 run. - Last run into the Gulf: 12Z 8/18 for the Euro vs. 12Z 8/19 for the GFS - Last run into S FL: 12Z 8/20 for the Euro vs. 0Z 8/21 for the GFS - Last run into GA or into SC at CHS or below: 12Z 8/21 for the Euro vs. 0Z 8/22 for the GFS So, despite my feeling about the Euro overstrengthening mainly above 30N, it has clearly been superior with the track, overall. Besides, I'm educatedly guessing that the other globals have been mainly too weak. How about we save the verification stuff for: 1) real metrics 2) post-storm analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18GFS central long Island landfall again. If it doesn't make landfall in Long Isand I will strangle the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z RGEM suggests track approx Morehead City - Virginia Beach - 20 east Ocean City - close to ACY - Babylon NY - central MA - northern NB. This would imply strongest storm surge (after eastern NC) central LI, CT, RI and se MA. NYC very close to track but would expect variable surge conditions with an early rise followed by levelling off as winds back around, however, that would pile water into Long Island Sound complicating the forecast. Anyway, clearly too close to call for NJ and NYC at this point, moderate or major impact being the range of possibilities now, but Long Island, most of southern New England seems almost certain to get a direct hit, and a major hit could only be averted by rapid weakening which seems unlikely given the size of the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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