LakeEffectKing Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I've been following the NOGAPS and it has been consistently west on or just off the Delmarva and into southern NJ for a good 4-5 runs straight now. With the NoGaps and UK a shade east of the 12z Euro, and the GFS with the GGEM, a UK/GFS compromise wouldn't be a bad one....probably a NJ scrape, and a western LI LF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 UKMET hasn't budged with a track directly over Hampton Roads/Cape May/NYC This ridge must really want to exert influence over the hurricane if it really wants to keep driving this thing almost due N from where it is now to nearly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFS is same as 18z basically..just 6 hrs faster and stronger Took a quick glance at it, you win. <br><br><br>This is interesting though, both 0z NAM and GFS are quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Took a quick glance at it, you're right. This is interesting though, both 0z NAM and GFS are quicker. For high tides up here and into New England, that could be very bad news. High tide Sunday morning is around 8-9am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Took a quick glance at it, you win. <br><br>This is interesting though, both 0z NAM and GFS are quicker. Im not sure any hurricanes that hit LI or SNE were moving slower than 25 mph at landfall...the initial model projections seemed a bit too slow. Bob may have been the slowest of the bunch moving at I think 25 mph when it passed Montauk. Gloria I think was moving at 30-35 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Took a quick glance at it, you're right. This is interesting though, both 0z NAM and GFS are quicker. And if you glance at the SREF members, you indeed see a correlation with speed....slightly slower..a bit more west...a touch faster and a bit east....not a perfect correlation, but probably something to keep in mind. I'm going to catch a few zz's....I'll wake up to some coffee, the Euro, and a strong Cat 3 Irene!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Is there a reason for the speeding up of Irene on the GFS/NAM? Seems like they are both less amplified with the trough and yet they're faster? The position of the jet streak maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 UKMET says not so fast there GFS/NAM... I like west! 48 -- http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=48&carte=1021 60 -- http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=60&carte=1021 72 -- http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=72&carte=1021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If the UKMET doesn't budge, the Euro is unlikely to change substantially. They generally trend in the same direction. UKMET hasn't budged with a track directly over Hampton Roads/Cape May/NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 0z ggem 60GGEM Looks to be a bit west of it previous runs. Looks to be landfall Brooklyn or a hair east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GGEM Looks to be a bit west of it previous runs. Looks to be landfall Brooklyn or a hair east. hard to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 0z ggem 60GGEM Looks to be a bit west of it previous runs. Looks to be landfall Brooklyn or a hair east. Yea hard to tell...looks like between BK and W LI... amazing model agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 With the NoGaps and UK a shade east of the 12z Euro, and the GFS with the GGEM, a UK/GFS compromise wouldn't be a bad one....probably a NJ scrape, and a western LI LF... Sounds like Bertha or Belle.... basically ground zero right here. I've heard NHC say that a compromise solution is the most accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Ggem black and white 60 h. B and W zoomed on iPhone depict 980 center better than the color maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Irene has been deviating to the right of the official NHC track all evening. Before the 03z track update the storm started moving almost straight north, which was a right side deviation from the previous track, so at 3z, NHC made the track more northerly and the storm has started moving more to the right. NHC track is toward 350 or 360 and the storm is moving closer to 20 or 30 degrees. Seems to be a lot more than a wobble and this may have serious ramifications on future track projections. At this link, click on the "trop pts" at the top to see the official track. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html This picture shows the deviation that was already happening to the previous track before the 03z update. This is more than a "wobble". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Irene has been deviating to the right of the official NHC track all evening. Before the 03z track update the storm started moving almost straight north, which was a right side deviation from the previous track, so at 3z, NHC made the track more northerly and the storm has started moving more to the right. NHC track is toward 350 or 360 and the storm is moving closer to 20 or 30 degrees. Seems to be a lot more than a wobble and this may have serious ramifications on future track projections. At this link, click on the "trop pts" at the top to see the official track. http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-vis.html This picture shows the deviation that was already happening to the previous track before the 03z update. This is more than a "wobble". What makes you think it isn't a "wobble", especially in an ERC coming up? The plot further up is due north so I don't see why it can't avg out over time given when the shift occured and how abrupt it seemed to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What makes you think it isn't a "wobble", especially in an ERC coming up? The plot further up is due north so I don't see why it can't avg out over time. It's continued over several hours now. Some of the deviation will probably be cancelled out eventually, but it's notable enough at this time for it to be a factor in the full track up the coast IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What makes you think it isn't a "wobble", especially in an ERC coming up? The plot further up is due north so I don't see why it can't avg out over time given when the shift occured and how abrupt it seemed to be. Even so, it seems to be following the GFS perfectly which ultimately sends this 25-50 miles east of the current NHC track. We know that it's not going to go out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What makes you think it isn't a "wobble", especially in an ERC coming up? The plot further up is due north so I don't see why it can't avg out over time given when the shift occured and how abrupt it seemed to be. It is going on too long to be a wobble from my experience. Such "wobbles" in past years using exactly the same method to check them, have amounted to large track changes from the models and we humans too. Just my two cents, but don't fall in love with any of the current track forecasts! Probably unrelated, but the new HWRF misses Long Island to the east and goes straight into RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGuide Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Watch the GFS track too... it showed several sways back and forth just e or w of true north. I really don't think this is going to matter a whole heck of a lot. It happens with every storm. Plus the fact the storm seems be entraining a bit of dry air in its western quadrant. If this is still east of north come sunrise id start calling it a true trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 2 AM 2:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 Location: 28.7°N 77.3°W Max sustained: 115 mph Moving: N at 14 mph Min pressure: 942 mb 11 PM was SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION LOCATION...28.3N 77.3W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It is going on too long to be a wobble from my experience. Such "wobbles" in past years using exactly the same method to check them, have amounted to large track changes from the models and we humans too. Just my two cents, but don't fall in love with any of the current track forecasts! Probably unrelated, but the new HWRF misses Long Island to the east and goes straight into RI. http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-77&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=800&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=10&palette=spect.pal Not looking at this link it is almost exactly where it should be. Be careful when looking at IR it can be very deceiving I think what you have noticed was an illusion in the eye structure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGuide Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I agree completely No, its heading east of due north.. but look at the WV loop.. its more like 5-10 degrees than the 20-30 i'm seeing said here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It is going on too long to be a wobble from my experience. Such "wobbles" in past years using exactly the same method to check them, have amounted to large track changes from the models and we humans too. Just my two cents, but don't fall in love with any of the current track forecasts! Probably unrelated, but the new HWRF misses Long Island to the east and goes straight into RI. I agree. That huge wobble could mean something. But new models won't pick it up until 6 or 12z.No changes it looks like to the 2am track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 77.3W is all she could do. ILM 77.9W and Wrightsville Beach, 77.7W should be all clear. Good luck to those of you east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 ECMWF Landfall At Hatteras NC maybe a tiny bit SW but right there basically, heading NNE. Initialized taking the "N" movement into account it seems. Also has it a much deeper storm although it'd pressure forecast is way too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFDL was wayyy west again, west of the Chesapeake Bay, probably going to thake the NHC track (I mean in actuality) when its all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Euro makes landfall at Cape Lookout 42h, exits at Kill Devil Hills approx 50h, eye grazes Ocean City 60h, 2nd landfall at Atlantic City 63h, hugs the NJ coast just inland and goes right over NYC between 66h and 69h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 ECMWF Landfall At Hatteras NC maybe a tiny bit SW but right there basically, heading NNE. Initialized taking the "N" movement into account it seems. Also has it a much deeper storm although it'd pressure forecast is way too low. the EC also takes it to trump's hotel, snooki's place, and i think heads to vince mc'mahon's office before heading to the berkshires. interesting track, and thankfully more east than yesterday's 00Z run going from philly to albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 the EC also takes it to trump's hotel, snooki's place, and i think heads to vince mc'mahon's office before heading to the berkshires. interesting track, and thankfully more east than yesterday's 00Z run going from philly to albany. Nasty track there... As for last nights 00z Run, At the same time NYC is hit harder this run and the storm is stronger as a result...pick your poison I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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