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Hurricane Irene Model and Forecast Discussion


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Can you say a little about the relative performance of the HWRF compared to the globals? My sense is that the HWRF has been all over the place. Does its performance improve closer to the event?

Am I correct in remembering that the GFDL pushed Irene through Florida just a couple days ago? Correct me if I'm wrong... not sure if that helps in speaking to consistency.

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Newb here wanting to learn: Hasn't the GFDL model led the way with Irene being west for basically the entire time? Didn't everyone laugh at its extreme scenario when all the models were trending east a couple days ago? So with that being said, why does it seem like the major media stations are still going with the GFS, which is one of the furthest east out of all them still, while there are a few - GFDL included - showing it going as far west as passing right over DC? Basically, if the GFDL has been consistent in it's more inland approach, and the GFS has been trending towards the GFDL, correcting itself from the eastward trend (which the GFDL never really had) then why are people still putting a lot of stock in the GFS?

I want a better answer than: "The GFS is usually the better model of the two", because surely that's a moot point considering the circumstances here where it seems like the GFDL has been more correct than the GFS. Correct me if I'm entirely wrong in any of this thinking....

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Remnants of invest 98L. They were fully factored into the models.

98L is falling apart as the surface circulation is no longer identifiable... the mass to the west of that feature is more interesting since it seems like its a mid-level low pressure feature that could have some influence of the strength of the ridge.

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Newb here wanting to learn: Hasn't the GFDL model led the way with Irene being west for basically the entire time? Didn't everyone laugh at its extreme scenario when all the models were trending east a couple days ago? So with that being said, why does it seem like the major media stations are still going with the GFS, which is one of the furthest east out of all them still, while there are a few - GFDL included - showing it going as far west as passing right over DC? Basically, if the GFDL has been consistent in it's more inland approach, and the GFS has been trending towards the GFDL, correcting itself from the eastward trend (which the GFDL never really had) then why are people still putting a lot of stock in the GFS?

I want a better answer than: "The GFS is usually the better model of the two", because surely that's a moot point considering the circumstances here where it seems like the GFDL has been more correct than the GFS. Correct me if I'm entirely wrong in any of this thinking....

I think it's a matter of past performance coupled with past history. I think a slightly more Easterly track will begin to show itself late Friday into Saturday. JMO

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However last night the Euro, shown here, was taking Irene from Moorhead NC up into cent md. It wasn't only the GFDL showing this track. Its rather interesting that two other stations that I watch,continually use the GFS as its model of choice to show Irene's track , without even mentioning the Euro.

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I agree in general, this just is keeping the possibility of a slightly more eastern track in the back of my mind....

I'd agree...if the HWRF had shown any consistency in the past 3 days...it was way west when everything went east...now way east when everything went west....

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http://philstropical...lina-coastline/

Updated Track and Thoughts... a little more pressed for time today, but my track is nearly identical to 24 hours ago, maybe just ever so slightly west, intensity down a tad although I still expect the system to intensify in the next 24 hours somewhat. If the forecast looks close to the NHC its because it is, I think they have an excellent forecast as well.

rbd6dy.png

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Newb here wanting to learn: Hasn't the GFDL model led the way with Irene being west for basically the entire time? Didn't everyone laugh at its extreme scenario when all the models were trending east a couple days ago? So with that being said, why does it seem like the major media stations are still going with the GFS, which is one of the furthest east out of all them still, while there are a few - GFDL included - showing it going as far west as passing right over DC? Basically, if the GFDL has been consistent in it's more inland approach, and the GFS has been trending towards the GFDL, correcting itself from the eastward trend (which the GFDL never really had) then why are people still putting a lot of stock in the GFS?

I want a better answer than: "The GFS is usually the better model of the two", because surely that's a moot point considering the circumstances here where it seems like the GFDL has been more correct than the GFS. Correct me if I'm entirely wrong in any of this thinking....

No, the GFDL has sucked for this storm. It showed Irene in the Caribbean....

Right now its best to go with the globals... they have the best handle on the upper air pattern right now.

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Here's my call. Add 20MB to that and ignore the time. I've shifted a little, but I'm not buying the EURO. the flow just isn't going to amplify and break apart the Quebec PV fast enough to allow for a track into Burlington.

At least I copied from a known phycally possible August storm track.

post-673-0-64727900-1314326761.jpg

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RGEM is similar to the NAM through 48- over or a hair east of Hatteras. I am beginning to think NHC is too slow and a bit too far west. My call right now is central or eastern LI, I am tending to agree that the Euro was not all that good, will be interesting to see what it does tonight.

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RGEM is similar to the NAM through 48- over or a hair east of Hatteras. I am beginning to think NHC is too slow and a bit too far west. My call right now is central or eastern LI, I am tending to agree that the Euro was not all that good, will be interesting to see what it does tonight.

Wait... You're honestly taking the RGEM and NAM over the Euro?

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Not that my opinion holds any validity but I also feel and central Suffolk or slightly East of there is the bullseye..

Maybe I'm wrong but the NAM and RGEM are mesoscale models used to solve truly mesoscale problems live convection, for instance. The exact track of Irene is a synoptics problem, not a mesoscale problem. That's why I would trust the Euro over the NAM and RGEM, or even the HWRF and GFDL at this point, since those also are not synoptic models (in a rough sense anyway)

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GFS is east too.

If ECMWF is east as well, NHC will most likely shift back east a tad at 2 or 5am.

I had been saying for some time the track into NYC and the Hudson Valley of NY was not happening. It was either going to take a more Gloria or Bob type track where it has some NNE or NE motion to it after it hits NC or it would trend hard west and go straight into NC. Given the latter is no longer likely to happen I'll go with an Outer Banks or Pamlico sound crosser and then landfall in central Suffolk county in NY. The end result will be minimal damage for the 5 boroughs and possibly most of Nassau county though there may be severe flooding in some locations due to the timing of high tide.

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I had been saying for some time the track into NYC and the Hudson Valley of NY was not happening. It was either going to take a more Gloria or Bob type track where it has some NNE or NE motion to it after it hits NC or it would trend hard west and go straight into NC. Given the latter is no longer likely to happen I'll go with an Outer Banks or Pamlico sound crosser and then landfall in central Suffolk county in NY. The end result will be minimal damage for the 5 boroughs and possibly most of Nassau county though there may be severe flooding in some locations due to the timing of high tide.

And 13.4" of rain forcast by hpc.

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Subjective prediction, after studying the guidance and the recent history ... the recent northward turn looks to be progressive and there are few strong indicators of any other track but the one shown earlier by "Mad Cheese" perhaps shifted a bit north in New England.

Overnight and Friday, Irene may intensify to cat-4 but then lose some strength late Friday approaching Cape Hatteras, back to cat-3 or strong cat-2 as it brushes Hatteras and moves NNE about 30-50 miles east of Delmarva then 100 miles east of NJ.

Second (or eventual) landfall central Long Island strong cat-1 or weak cat-2 heading NE towards Groton CT, Providence RI, Lowell MA and up the NH-ME coastal strip crossing into NB just inland as TS and northeast into Gulf of St Lawrence.

I hope this is correct because the only major damage from such a path would be in eastern Long Island, Rhode Island and southeast MA, and also rainfall potential might be less than catastrophic for inland northeast. No storm surge except Narraganset Bay, southeast MA and islands, and some parts of east Hamptons.

We shall see ... but this would be good news for NYC and about 50 million people.

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I had been saying for some time the track into NYC and the Hudson Valley of NY was not happening. It was either going to take a more Gloria or Bob type track where it has some NNE or NE motion to it after it hits NC or it would trend hard west and go straight into NC. Given the latter is no longer likely to happen I'll go with an Outer Banks or Pamlico sound crosser and then landfall in central Suffolk county in NY. The end result will be minimal damage for the 5 boroughs and possibly most of Nassau county though there may be severe flooding in some locations due to the timing of high tide.

There is really no justification for ruling out the NYC track.

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