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Hurricane Irene Model and Forecast Discussion


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I am having trouble accessing the 12z GFS ensembles for whatever reason, maybe someone could tip off where the OP run is in relation to the Ensemble spread? I'm curious as to why the ECMWF and it's ensembles are so much further west after Landfall than the GFS and what to expect...obvoiously waiting for 12z ECMWF run but it would be a huge dillemna if the 12z stands pat. I doubt it will but we'll see I guess.

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Major differences between the 18Z GFDL and HWRF- GFDL hits near Morehead city then up to over eastern PA, HWRF way way east, misses Hatteras completely, landfall Block Island. This one is still not set in stone....

Can you say a little about the relative performance of the HWRF compared to the globals? My sense is that the HWRF has been all over the place. Does its performance improve closer to the event?

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