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Hurricane Irene Model and Forecast Discussion


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Im just curious, is there a limit to how far west irene could go? Is it possible to send her through va into central pa? Or is there a limiting factor?

I think the 0z Euro should be almost the western boundary. The only piece of information yet to be sampled is the upstream kicker, but that shouldn't cause deviations of >100 mi.

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Its not so much NC that I think will weaken it as much as its the land interaction with DE/MD and NJ further up the coast.

It certainly won't take a huge hurricane to cause a lot of damage in this area. Water piling up on the east side coupled with the new moon, possible tornadoes, and 60 mph winds on saturated ground will result in the worst storm this area has had since possibly 1992 if not before. Some parts of this area flood with a new moon period, even without a storm.

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I think the 0z Euro should be almost the western boundary. The only piece of information yet to be sampled is the upstream kicker, but that shouldn't cause deviations of >100 mi.

100 miles from the ocean or from where the euro is showing Irene going last night??

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This is going back obviously but I do recall Hugo being forecast to come much closer to our area and ultimately ending up way west. But it was also alot further south and coming in at a different trajectory

http://www.thestate.com/static/html/hugotrack.html

Im just curious, is there a limit to how far west irene could go? Is it possible to send her through va into central pa? Or is there a limiting factor?

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Another nice HPC disco. Strongly worded first paragraph too.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

948 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

VALID 12Z MON AUG 29 2011 - 12Z THU SEP 01 2011

...MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE TO STRONGLY AFFECT THE EAST COAST FROM NC

INTO THE NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...

THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADJUST WESTWARD AS HAS

THE LAST SEVERAL NHC TRACK FORECASTS WHICH NOW HAVE EYE OF IRENE

COMING THRU THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS LATE SATURDAY BEFORE

GRAZING THE DELMARVA AND NEW JERSEY THEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST

ON SUNDAY. THIS POTENTIALLY COULD BE EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WITH

MASSIVE DISRUPTIONS TO SOCIETY AND COMMERCE ALONG ITS ENTIRE TRACK

WITH VERY HIGH WINDS/STORM SURGE/OCEAN OVERWASH/BEACH

EROSION/SOUND AND BAY SIDE COASTAL FLOODING AND EXTREME TIDE

POTENTIAL. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE WILL BE

COMMON WITH GREATLY INCREASED INLAND FLOOD POTENTIAL. REFER TO THE

NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST OF IRENE ALONG WITH LOCAL NWS

WARNINGS/STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FROM NC INTO NEW ENGLAND.

ON A LARGER SCALE...SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIANCES IN THE TIMING AND

STRENGTH OF A COMPLICATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVOLVING OFF

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPEARS TO PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE IN THE PATH

OF IRENE DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE

00Z GFS IS NOTICEABLY FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS TROUGH

AS IT REACHES THE MIDWEST ON DAY 3 WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER

AND MORE AMPLIFIED AS IS ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN

OFFER INTERMEDIATE SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS A PRUDENT PLACE TO LIE

UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND CAN BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY THE

MORE DENSE OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK FOR ASSIMILATION INTO THE MODELS.

UNTIL THEN...SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

THIS DIGGING TROF SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN REASON FOR THE ECMWFS MORE

WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 2 CYCLES OF HURRICANE IRENE AND NEEDS

TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS WE GO INTO THE SHORTER RANGE.

AGAIN...REFER TO THE NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST OF IRENE.

OTHERWISE...00Z GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER WESTERN NORTH

AMERICA INCLUDING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY DAYS 4-5...WITH THE

ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER TO LIFT THE TROUGH TOWARD CENTRAL CANADA.

HOWEVER...WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN/UKMET AND THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN

OF GFS OFFERING BETTER SUPPORT FOR A GFS-LIKE SOLUTION FOR THIS

TROUGH AND THE EVOLVING PATTERN OVER ALASKA AND NORTHEAST

PACIFIC...FOR WHICH THE ECMWF BECOMES NEARLY OUT OF PHASE WITH

OTHER GUIDANCE BY DAY 7. EARLY PRELIMS RECOMMENDED A MOSTLY

GFS-LIKE OR GEFS-LIKE SOLUTION FOR THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYS 5-7.

HOWEVER FOR UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS PREFER A BLEND OF BOTH

GFS/ECMWF ENS MEANS AS THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF MAY VERY WELL BE OVER

AMPLIFIED OVER ERN CANADA DAYS 6-7 THERE ARE ENOUGH ENSEMBLE

MEMBERS TO SKEW THE ECMWF ENS MEAN TOWARD THIS DIRECTION. PREFER

AND EVEN BLEND OF THE MEANS AT THIS TIME

JAMES/ROSENSTEIN

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how statisticallly accurrate is the ec with regard to tropical systems.?? That is probably the main question. We really wont know till tomorrow the final track of Irene

You won't know the final track until it's over. Models/NHC/Mets are great, but we're talking about a big storm tracking almost parallel to the coast, maybe someone will nail it, but I'd be very surprised if there aren't some track adjustments after tomorrow. Don't think the EURO has tracked enough tc up the east coast to 40n to even have a verification score for that.

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not that this means much but looks like 12z NAM is trying to come in a bit more east with its run so far. Lets see if this continues.

I guess untill that short wave comes into canada and down into the us. what the models say really doesn't mean that much. Last night the nam came in west, today its coming in east. Back and forthe. GFDL came in west. Is this not correct??

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I guess untill that short wave comes into canada and down into the us. what the models say really doesn't mean that much. Last night the nam came in west, today its coming in east. Back and forthe. GFDL came in west. Is this not correct??

As we get closer the models should be getting a better handle on that wave. But we shall see. The 12z NAM definitely a bit more amp'd with that feature and that may be why it is coming in a bit more east on this run.

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As we get closer the models should be getting a better handle on that wave. But we shall see. The 12z NAM definitely a bit more amp'd with that feature and that may be why it is coming in a bit more east on this run.

I thought a more amped shortwave meant farther west. Guess I,m wrong

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Question doesn't the rain shield expand as they start to interact with land I am thinking that it will rain in dc well before the storm gets to are lat. some of the models are showing a strip of rain around DC and Baltimore on Sat day. any thoughts on this?

I'm just posting this as a general reminder... questions about sensible weather in specific locations is better suited for the threads in the subfora, rather than in the general threads on the main board.

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SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1455Z THU AUG 25 2011

THE 12Z GFS HAS STARTED ON-TIME...

WITH 14 ALASKAN...32 CANADIAN...77 CONUS...13 MEXICAN AND 10 CARIBBEAN UPR AIR REPORTS AVBL FOR INGEST. ADDITIONALLY...41 DROPSONDE AND 7 FLIGHT LEVEL RECON OBS IN THE VICINITY OF HURRICANE IRENE WERE AVBL FOR INGEST.

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