TomAtkins Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I remember the late John Hope saying that area is warm marshland and can sustain a hurricane, just a thought. Didn't Hurricane Danny actually strengthen over that area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Didn't Hurricane Danny actually strengthen over that area? Its not so much NC that I think will weaken it as much as its the land interaction with DE/MD and NJ further up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Im just curious, is there a limit to how far west irene could go? Is it possible to send her through va into central pa? Or is there a limiting factor? I think the 0z Euro should be almost the western boundary. The only piece of information yet to be sampled is the upstream kicker, but that shouldn't cause deviations of >100 mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Its not so much NC that I think will weaken it as much as its the land interaction with DE/MD and NJ further up the coast. It certainly won't take a huge hurricane to cause a lot of damage in this area. Water piling up on the east side coupled with the new moon, possible tornadoes, and 60 mph winds on saturated ground will result in the worst storm this area has had since possibly 1992 if not before. Some parts of this area flood with a new moon period, even without a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I would expect a track shift back to the Eastern portion of NC at 11am.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
violinist Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think the 0z Euro should be almost the western boundary. The only piece of information yet to be sampled is the upstream kicker, but that shouldn't cause deviations of >100 mi. 100 miles from the ocean or from where the euro is showing Irene going last night?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This is going back obviously but I do recall Hugo being forecast to come much closer to our area and ultimately ending up way west. But it was also alot further south and coming in at a different trajectory http://www.thestate.com/static/html/hugotrack.html Im just curious, is there a limit to how far west irene could go? Is it possible to send her through va into central pa? Or is there a limiting factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
violinist Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I would expect a track shift back to the Eastern portion of NC at 11am.... why?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Another nice HPC disco. Strongly worded first paragraph too. PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 948 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011 VALID 12Z MON AUG 29 2011 - 12Z THU SEP 01 2011 ...MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE TO STRONGLY AFFECT THE EAST COAST FROM NC INTO THE NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND... THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADJUST WESTWARD AS HAS THE LAST SEVERAL NHC TRACK FORECASTS WHICH NOW HAVE EYE OF IRENE COMING THRU THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS LATE SATURDAY BEFORE GRAZING THE DELMARVA AND NEW JERSEY THEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS POTENTIALLY COULD BE EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WITH MASSIVE DISRUPTIONS TO SOCIETY AND COMMERCE ALONG ITS ENTIRE TRACK WITH VERY HIGH WINDS/STORM SURGE/OCEAN OVERWASH/BEACH EROSION/SOUND AND BAY SIDE COASTAL FLOODING AND EXTREME TIDE POTENTIAL. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE WILL BE COMMON WITH GREATLY INCREASED INLAND FLOOD POTENTIAL. REFER TO THE NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST OF IRENE ALONG WITH LOCAL NWS WARNINGS/STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FROM NC INTO NEW ENGLAND. ON A LARGER SCALE...SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIANCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COMPLICATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVOLVING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPEARS TO PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE IN THE PATH OF IRENE DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS IS NOTICEABLY FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT REACHES THE MIDWEST ON DAY 3 WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED AS IS ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN OFFER INTERMEDIATE SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS A PRUDENT PLACE TO LIE UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND CAN BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY THE MORE DENSE OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK FOR ASSIMILATION INTO THE MODELS. UNTIL THEN...SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE. THIS DIGGING TROF SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN REASON FOR THE ECMWFS MORE WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 2 CYCLES OF HURRICANE IRENE AND NEEDS TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS WE GO INTO THE SHORTER RANGE. AGAIN...REFER TO THE NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST OF IRENE. OTHERWISE...00Z GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA INCLUDING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY DAYS 4-5...WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER TO LIFT THE TROUGH TOWARD CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER...WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN/UKMET AND THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN OF GFS OFFERING BETTER SUPPORT FOR A GFS-LIKE SOLUTION FOR THIS TROUGH AND THE EVOLVING PATTERN OVER ALASKA AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC...FOR WHICH THE ECMWF BECOMES NEARLY OUT OF PHASE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE BY DAY 7. EARLY PRELIMS RECOMMENDED A MOSTLY GFS-LIKE OR GEFS-LIKE SOLUTION FOR THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYS 5-7. HOWEVER FOR UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS PREFER A BLEND OF BOTH GFS/ECMWF ENS MEANS AS THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF MAY VERY WELL BE OVER AMPLIFIED OVER ERN CANADA DAYS 6-7 THERE ARE ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO SKEW THE ECMWF ENS MEAN TOWARD THIS DIRECTION. PREFER AND EVEN BLEND OF THE MEANS AT THIS TIME JAMES/ROSENSTEIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
violinist Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 how statisticallly accurrate is the ec with regard to tropical systems.?? That is probably the main question. We really wont know till tomorrow the final track of Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 why?? Guidance is shifting west with each run....(shifting a bit anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 how statisticallly accurrate is the ec with regard to tropical systems.?? That is probably the main question. We really wont know till tomorrow the final track of Irene You won't know the final track until it's over. Models/NHC/Mets are great, but we're talking about a big storm tracking almost parallel to the coast, maybe someone will nail it, but I'd be very surprised if there aren't some track adjustments after tomorrow. Don't think the EURO has tracked enough tc up the east coast to 40n to even have a verification score for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 not that this means much but looks like 12z NAM is trying to come in a bit more east with its run so far. Lets see if this continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
violinist Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 not that this means much but looks like 12z NAM is trying to come in a bit more east with its run so far. Lets see if this continues. I guess untill that short wave comes into canada and down into the us. what the models say really doesn't mean that much. Last night the nam came in west, today its coming in east. Back and forthe. GFDL came in west. Is this not correct?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I guess untill that short wave comes into canada and down into the us. what the models say really doesn't mean that much. Last night the nam came in west, today its coming in east. Back and forthe. GFDL came in west. Is this not correct?? As we get closer the models should be getting a better handle on that wave. But we shall see. The 12z NAM definitely a bit more amp'd with that feature and that may be why it is coming in a bit more east on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
violinist Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 As we get closer the models should be getting a better handle on that wave. But we shall see. The 12z NAM definitely a bit more amp'd with that feature and that may be why it is coming in a bit more east on this run. I thought a more amped shortwave meant farther west. Guess I,m wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I thought a more amped shortwave meant farther west. Guess I,m wrong there is really no appreciable east trend in the 12z NAM....he's talking about the 2nd Canadian shortwave. if anything, 12z looks slightly faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Question doesn't the rain shield expand as they start to interact with land I am thinking that it will rain in dc well before the storm gets to are lat. some of the models are showing a strip of rain around DC and Baltimore on Sat day. any thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Question doesn't the rain shield expand as they start to interact with land I am thinking that it will rain in dc well before the storm gets to are lat. some of the models are showing a strip of rain around DC and Baltimore on Sat day. any thoughts on this? I'm just posting this as a general reminder... questions about sensible weather in specific locations is better suited for the threads in the subfora, rather than in the general threads on the main board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 To go back to an earlier question, any SLOSH model output available publically yet for anywhere? I'm looking specifically for Ches Bay/Del Bay/NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 To go back to an earlier question, any SLOSH model output available publically yet for anywhere? I'm looking specifically for Ches Bay/Del Bay/NJ. This probably won't be available until tomorrow, since they run it 48 hrs before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 11:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 Location: 25.9°N 76.8°W Max sustained: 115 mph Moving: NNW at 13 mph Min pressure: 951 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This probably won't be available until tomorrow, since they run it 48 hrs before landfall. adam was the gfs enkf 6z model posted? if so could you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 adam was the gfs enkf 6z model posted? if so could you? The link is broken at the ESRL site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12Z NAM = pain and lots of it for LI. The NAM brings the storm ashore over Suffolk county but it dances NNW before that so it basically approaches from the SW so it has the worst possible approach and impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This probably won't be available until tomorrow, since they run it 48 hrs before landfall. Should have known better...thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1455Z THU AUG 25 2011 THE 12Z GFS HAS STARTED ON-TIME... WITH 14 ALASKAN...32 CANADIAN...77 CONUS...13 MEXICAN AND 10 CARIBBEAN UPR AIR REPORTS AVBL FOR INGEST. ADDITIONALLY...41 DROPSONDE AND 7 FLIGHT LEVEL RECON OBS IN THE VICINITY OF HURRICANE IRENE WERE AVBL FOR INGEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12z GFS. about 50 miles more north-east at 30 hours. Not a huge jump, but a jump nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12z GFS moves about 6hrs Irene faster. Compare 48hr 12z panel to 60hr 6z panel. 12z also a smidge east at that same point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Cape Lookout landfall Sat mid aftn.. Slow stall type movement before that. ...and after. This would be a huge hit Norfolk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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