Sunny and Warm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I agree that the synoptics are quite tenuous. The ECMWF seems to be relying on one small vort to keep Irene moving N as opposed to curving more NNE, and I don't have a huge amount of confidence that such a small vort can do the trick. However, I do want to note that the 0z ECMWF doesn't show any west of north component north of 30N - see animation below. Any chance the higher resolution in the models these days is causing overvaluing of certain features in the grid than when the resolution was coarser? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The trend west continues on the 06Z GFS it seems, East in the initial stages but the track shifts west of 00z by Hr 30-36, not sure if it will continue. Edit: 6Z GFS pulling a 00z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Agree, I am growing increasingly concerned about the Euro's persistence and the other models seeming to tick back west just a bit. My home is in southern MD and Isabel was bad. This seems just as bad if not worse if it pans out like some of the models are showing tonight. The center of the hurricane would need to pass to the west of the bay to cause any significant flooding. This is still a possibility but none of the models are really honing in on that scenario. With the Euro's track, water would be pushed in to the western shore tributaries for a short time before the center passes to the north and then the wind would swing around to the NE. If the track keeps shifting west, then it might be time to sound the alarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 hr 66 gfs west of 0z by a little into NC hr 72 sitting on top of corolla NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 thru 84 almost exact same position along Jersey coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 thru 84 almost exact same position along Jersey coastline. yep right over atlantic city hr.90 over nyc/ western long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 precip through hr. 84 major flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFS rides the ocean along all of Jersey and then makes direct landfall over Queens area of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFS shifted east about 20-30 miles with landfall in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 New storm surge probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFS shifted east about 20-30 miles with landfall in CT. You mean LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Seeing that the NHC is always a bit hesitant to adjust their track much in one advisory, would one expect them to shift it a bit more west on the next advisory given the trends in the models overnight and this morning? I think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 You mean LI. Yeah. Landfall looks like near Queens/Nassau border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looks to me like the storm is weaknening a bit due to land interaction with Andros Island and Grand Bahama... it has lost significant convection to its south and west. With the eye wall replacement cycle coinciding with it moving north of the bahamas, in addition to favorable environmental factors (low wind shear, warm waters), I think that it is possible we see a cat 4 by the end of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looks to me like the storm is weaknening a bit due to land interaction with Andros Island and Grand Bahama... it has lost significant convection to its south and west. With the eye wall replacement cycle coinciding with it moving north of the bahamas, in addition to favorable environmental factors (low wind shear, warm waters), I think that it is possible we see a cat 4 by the end of the day. Land interaction? I doubt that. More likely a factor of the ERC and some SW shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFDL shifts further west: Makes LF beetween Wilmington and Morehead.....goes just west of C.P. Bay...and up through CNY.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 HWRF also west of previous run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Seems to bring some different areas in SC, NC, VA, MD and DC into play with both the wind and precip. 6z HRWF shifted west to, idk, Ocracoke maybe (was offshore) and the 6z GFDL...well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This trend is becoming pretty darn disturbing for eastern NC. From MHX up the OBX could just get crushed. I was part of a team that went into that area after Isabel to do some post-storm analysis and saw some amazing things with regard to surge damage. Could very well be a repeat performance coming up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12z Tropical Models...west shift from the 6z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This trend is becoming pretty darn disturbing for eastern NC. From MHX up the OBX could just get crushed. I was part of a team that went into that area after Isabel to do some post-storm analysis and saw some amazing things with regard to surge damage. Could very well be a repeat performance coming up... I want to add SE VA and Hampton Roads in this as well. We are often overlooked for some reason. Navy fleet moving ships out to sea and evacuation talk is beginning. These model runs becoming a lot more important as far as effects go for eastern NC and SE VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This trend is becoming pretty darn disturbing for eastern NC. From MHX up the OBX could just get crushed. I was part of a team that went into that area after Isabel to do some post-storm analysis and saw some amazing things with regard to surge damage. Could very well be a repeat performance coming up... I am roughly 60 miles NNW of MHX and the shifts the models are showing to the west bring changes to my weather with them. Its the difference between getting some TS force winds and possibly flirting with the western eyewall. The NHC hasn't seemed willing to buy into them with any major shift just yet and seeing we are getting into the shorter time frames it concerns me that a last minute shift in their track to the west to say MHX will catch some people off guard. Its really been hyped down alot here. No big runs on the stores or anything and its just kinda ho-hum its going east attitudes I see from people at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxClimate Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This is just silly. The stuff we run nowadays has such little resemblance to the operational models of 2003. I agree ... the formulations of the models are very different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I am roughly 60 miles NNW of MHX and the shifts the models are showing to the west bring changes to my weather with them. Its the difference between getting some TS force winds and possibly flirting with the western eyewall. The NHC hasn't seemed willing to buy into them with any major shift just yet and seeing we are getting into the shorter time frames it concerns me that a last minute shift in their track to the west to say MHX will catch some people off guard. Its really been hyped down alot here. No big runs on the stores or anything and its just kinda ho-hum its going east attitudes I see from people at work. Your area has been in the cone the entire forecast period since Monday. And just about every discussion includes some form of this statement: IRENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGER THAN AVERAGE HURRICANE. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES... RESPECTIVELY. If people are caught off guard, they are operating with less than adequate human comprehension skills.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I want to add SE VA and Hampton Roads in this as well. We are often overlooked for some reason. Navy fleet moving ships out to sea and evacuation talk is beginning. These model runs becoming a lot more important as far as effects go for eastern NC and SE VA Completely agree. My post focused on E NC just because that is the area I have some experience with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The early 12Z hurricane models are mainly clustered on that 06Z GFS track, again I think they are grossly over exaggerating the impacts for NYC on a storm that hugs the coast that long...I cannot envision anyway it remains a hurricane hugging the coast from NC all the way to Queens or Brooklyn. And considering the global models have generally been west of the hurricane ones I'd expect they may come even further west at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The early 12Z hurricane models are mainly clustered on that 06Z GFS track, again I think they are grossly over exaggerating the impacts for NYC on a storm that hugs the coast that long...I cannot envision anyway it remains a hurricane hugging the coast from NC all the way to Queens or Brooklyn. And considering the global models have generally been west of the hurricane ones I'd expect they may come even further west at 12Z. There was Donna and quite a few others that remained strong hugging the coast.Hazel was 300 miles inland and NYC got hurricane force winds.At this time yesterday some were calling it Earl and a total out to sea miss.Plus hurricanes the last 24 hours in these parts tend to move more east than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The early 12Z hurricane models are mainly clustered on that 06Z GFS track, again I think they are grossly over exaggerating the impacts for NYC on a storm that hugs the coast that long...I cannot envision anyway it remains a hurricane hugging the coast from NC all the way to Queens or Brooklyn. And considering the global models have generally been west of the hurricane ones I'd expect they may come even further west at 12Z. I remember the late John Hope saying that area is warm marshland and can sustain a hurricane, just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This is just silly. The stuff we run nowadays has such little resemblance to the operational models of 2003. The increase in abilities of models and their sophistication is incredibly difficult for most to understand....For example, when I graduated in '90, we had two models (essentially)...the NGM and the LFM......today the full run could be completed for BOTH models in under a few minutes......on practically a souped up home computer!!! Back in the day, it'd take a few hours on the "BIG" machines! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Im just curious, is there a limit to how far west irene could go? Is it possible to send her through va into central pa? Or is there a limiting factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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