Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 W of Bob...its near the RI/CT border and then tracks over interior E MA. Not that this difference is meaningful whatsoever at this time range, but thought I'd point out that verbatim it woud definitely be west of Bob. So right over TAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 New GFS at is farther right and the northern stream trough is deeper....do I smell fish? Certainly not a fish by any means... Comparing 12 Z 156 hrs to 00z 144 ..It looks to either be slightly SW or slower then that run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 We're also talking like 132-144 hrs+ out... regional subforum material. Are there any downstream shortwaves to push Irene NE'ward after the second trough passes? It looks fairly zonal and deamplified which explains the slow movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Crappy graphics, but UK (after finding it's brain) at least joins the reasonable spread....looks like SC LF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Total precip through hr162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 W of Bob...its near the RI/CT border and then tracks over interior E MA. Not that this difference is meaningful whatsoever at this time range, but thought I'd point out that verbatim it woud definitely be west of Bob. And moving at slower than Belle speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 We're also talking like 132-144 hrs+ out... regional subforum material. Most of this is going to be regional subforum material if we are talking about spots of landfall with each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Most of this is going to be regional subforum material if we are talking about spots of landfall with each model run. Well, I assume we can still talk about generalities here-- like how slow this might actually be moving. I hope we aren't talking about Edouard speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 As illustrated, Irene doesn't shoot NE'ward because ridging rebuilds slightly over the Canadian Maritimes and the second trough is too shallow to displace the Mid Atlantic ridge. It's a fairly anomalous synoptic setup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Cilmatology strongly favors a fade to brush Hatteras keeping the damaging weather offshore. For those of us that know our Old North State climatology well, in the absence of a defined inland conveyor belt (ie: Hugo, Fran), the fade to brush Hatteras is almost always something you can count on, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 In between the techno happy hardcore club music bumps on the weather channel, Norcross and Cantore discussed that weird zig zag about an hour and a half ago...explaining it could hit eastern nc/va then hook nnw and hit 95. Actually that was one of the best discussions I caught on there in quite some time. So it's being talked about.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Well, I assume we can still talk about generalities here-- like how slow this might actually be moving. I hope we aren't talking about Edouard speeds. Models have been consistent on the slow speed so even if it takes a "perfect" track for one local in the Northeast, it will not be more than a cat 1 hurricane I wouldn't think, but this far out a lot can change. Models will also tend to underestimate the forward speed at those latitude and also under estimate its right "hook" ability. These things don't really become important though until we're probably at least 3 days out or even closer. But the lack of a deep trough to the west of it suggests the slower speed is something that would verify regardless if its slightly too slow or west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Well, I assume we can still talk about generalities here-- like how slow this might actually be moving. I hope we aren't talking about Edouard speeds. I'm on the fence with with that. Yes, slow speed is bad for this sort of scenario, but ..this is the absolute apex of shelf water heat content - 75+F mean. If you're going to move a system at 20mph N of Cape H, that's not really "cold" water exactly. Near the tail end of 2005's epic season, we had TC nearing hurricane strength out in the Atlantic over 75F waters - the upper air in this case is phenomenal up the coast and am wondering if this is an off-set and is helping these runs stay so robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 LEK... thats the 12z 144 spot... I have the website open... the 00z is only out to 96 hrs... check the upper right tag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Most of this is going to be regional subforum material if we are talking about spots of landfall with each model run. talking more about the analog storms up there.. especially when other decent models still have it coming in sc/nc then inland up the coast and you guys are still well outside the 5 day cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Cilmatology strongly favors a fade to brush Hatteras keeping the damaging weather offshore. For those of us that know our Old North State climatology well, in the absence of a defined inland conveyor belt (ie: Hugo, Fran), the fade to brush Hatteras is almost always something you can count on, Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 And moving at slower than Belle speeds. Yeah, for that latitude, it's moving crazy slow. It would not be a strong system by the time it got to NY/New England. Cyclones need to blast up the coast at over 40 kt to really hit the Northeast hard. Gloria was moving at almost 40 kt and still fell apart before hitting Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Here is the CORRECT 00z UKIE at 120... the 144 LEK posted was from 12z today. Shows landfall I believe NC/SC border if I can read it sideways <snip> SEE IAN'S POST ON PAGE 5 -- rotated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yes What would the U/L conditions be like based on this GFS run? It would seem that cooler SST's would be the only detrimental factor or is there something that could induce significant shear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The pattern still isn't looking any more pleasent, there nothing to push it west and nothing to stop it from going OTS, it beter gain longitude while it still can. My guess,10% shot at US EC landfall. 100% of a 4 day media Hypefest from FL to maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The pattern still isn't looking any more pleasent, there nothing to push it west and nothing to stop it from going OTS, it beter gain longitude while it still can. My guess,10% shot at US EC landfall. 100% of a 4 day media Hypefest from FL to maine. Which credible model shows a fish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Here is the CORRECT 00z UKIE at 120... the 144 LEK posted was from 12z today. Shows landfall I believe NC/SC border if I can read it sideways enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 As I mentioned in the New England forum, the MAIN point here is that the westerlies are at an anomalously high latitude. So Irene can meander further up the coast. This is also related to a pattern change in the next couple days from a -NAO Greenland block to a North Atlantic ridge. Irene will take the path of least resistance ... which will be north / northwest toward the weakness in the ridge, BUT it stays south of the westerlies, so it can continue northward unimpeded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Fairly small area of SSTs cool ennough to cause significant weakening if all else was favorable for a Nnortheast US landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Here is the 0z NoGaps. If anyone cares, the westerlies are further south and Irene is going out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_GFS_1000-500_SLPPRPTHK_150HR.gif The correct answer is 966! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Which model? Show me the panel. This isn't hard. A storm that spends most of its time offshore and only landfalls on barrier islands is pretty much a fish. The trend is also pretty clear. It's not going to go any further west and will likely trend even further east before all is said and done. Do you really think it's going to do anything other than brush the NC outer banks and Cape Cod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Uhh, nearly all of them. Well, how about a "brush" instead of a "fish". I don't consider breezing by the Outer Banks to be a big deal. Sure, some heavy rains to the NW, but the winds and interesting stuff will be confined to a small, mostly island-y area. Its not like it brushes the US it pretty much demolishes most of the outer banks, and then you have the high res hwrf which has come back west, wait til tomorrow to start freaking out. I'm supposed to be on the outerbanks on saturday and we might lose the whole vacation, so hopefully it goes west and still has 110 mph winds for you and the inland NC, you still are dealing with average track deviations of 150-200 miles at 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Which credible model shows a fish? None. I look at patterns not models. No blocking to the NE and a zonal flow means it has to pull a sneak job to get inland. And I doubt the second ridge turns it back to the west it's weak and transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This isn't hard. A storm that spends most of its time offshore and only landfalls on barrier islands is pretty much a fish. The trend is also pretty clear. It's not going to go any further west and will likely trend even further east before all is said and done. Do you really think it's going to do anything other than brush the NC outer banks and Cape Cod? I think a good guide for this is to just look at Hurricane Earl's track and adjust it further SW even though the synoptic setups may be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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