ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 pretty close to the euro.. a few hours slower than previous gfs tho the westward shift might also have something to do with that feel Taking longer to recurve will naturally make it slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Jeeze cuts inland to near Albany NY, seems to be following the ECMWF (somewhat). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Reminiscent of Floyd for rainfall (and the same areas too.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Euro track exactly, but the euro looked a lot different over the central US. Straight up vermont. At 66 hours the western ridge begins retrograding, That's when all hell breaks loose you can see the downstream effects almost immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I wonder what wind barbs/progs will show for this. SE sustained 70-80 mph winds right into Long Island/NYC most likely. Horrific flood situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Unreal rainfall totals even further inland too.. Susquehanna river basin gets 5-6" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The idea that the LI sound will pile up on the western side from this wind direction must have Emerg planners frantic at this point. Could be the worst case for SW CT and the NY city area with regard to flooding. I wonder what the slosh models look like for this more western track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Watch the Euro come out and shift east.... Seriously though this does not look good- intensity is still a big ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 UKIE is out to 72... looks like a NC Outer Banks landfall possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Watch the Euro come out and shift east.... Seriously though this does not look good- intensity is still a big ? That was part of my point. I don't think it will intensify once it moves over Hatteras. It will be slow moving and I assume that would be more time for it to weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFS First Landfall... I wouldn't trust the winds but just look at the surface circulation location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 // 00z GFS 8/25/11 For Sunday, August 28th 2011 3:00 GMT // Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Well if anyone figures out what it phases with let me know. H5 contours just keep appearing south of it one at a time and it moves pretty far to the left of the height contours and clobbers Burlington this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFS at second landfall... looks like Atlantic City, NY gets hit pretty good, although its questionable how strong this system is by this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 00s UKIE follows the 00z GFS... perhaps ever so slightly farther east... but the idea is most def there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 00s UKIE follows the 00z GFS... perhaps ever so slightly farther east... but the idea is most def there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Canadian out to 60 -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_100.gif Just S/SW of OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 72 and 84 GGEM' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I have highlighted the one of the reasons why we are now seeing a significant shift west with the GFS... small pieces of vorticity make all the difference it appears. Basically the little feature I noted earlier from the ECWMF at 12z... the GFS now has it too. This is what likely allows the more northward motion beyond the Outer Banks Landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Here are the top 3 performing models for Irene's intensity based on intensity error Top 4 position error Model track of top 3 models wrt position error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Nogaps goes over or JUST east of NYC.....makes LF near Cape Hat. in NC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Nogaps goes over or JUST east of NYC.....makes LF near Cape Hat. in NC.. Sounds like the 00z GFS/UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Here are the top 3 performing models for Irene's intensity based on intensity error Top 4 position error Model track of top 3 models wrt position error Solid, helpful post! Can you keep these coming every so often? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Bizarre...GGEM trended east with the storm between Chatham, MA and ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Severe potential with this hurricane, if RGEM output is accurate, height falls over the centre amount to near-record lows for a tropical system (546 dm depicted at 36h). Track is ominous but not yet clear enough to suggest more than extreme caution anywhere northeast of about Charleston SC. Further ahead, Long Island or New England landfalls will coincide with new moon near perigee (late 28th early 29th) suggesting extreme storm surge issues wherever Irene reaches land over the period Saturday to Tuesday. I believe it is quite possible that a strong cat-4 or even cat-5 hurricane may develop east of JAX, perhaps make a brief NC/VA landfall and then stay strong (fading only to cat-3 or high end cat-2) well north of 40N. Quite likely this is the last Hurricane Irene we will ever see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 As ORH and I stated last night, it is rare to see a W trend after the models started trending E. The trend W is ominous attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 As ORH and I stated last night, it is rare to see a W trend after the models started trending E. The trend W is ominous attm. A stupid response, but why is it ominous, and ominous for the NE, for VA, NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Severe potential with this hurricane, if RGEM output is accurate, height falls over the centre amount to near-record lows for a tropical system (546 dm depicted at 36h). Track is ominous but not yet clear enough to suggest more than extreme caution anywhere northeast of about Charleston SC. Further ahead, Long Island or New England landfalls will coincide with new moon near perigee (late 28th early 29th) suggesting extreme storm surge issues wherever Irene reaches land over the period Saturday to Tuesday. I believe it is quite possible that a strong cat-4 or even cat-5 hurricane may develop east of JAX, perhaps make a brief NC/VA landfall and then stay strong (fading only to cat-3 or high end cat-2) well north of 40N. Quite likely this is the last Hurricane Irene we will ever see. Man, getting that to verify is going to tough. Irene is going through major internal reconstruction right now, while wasting a diurnal cycle and high OHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 HWRF came in essentially the same LF pt. on Central LI....but 2mb lower @ 926 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 HWRF came in essentially the same LF pt. on Central LI....but 2mb lower @ 926 Do you have a link to that. I do not. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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