SACRUS Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=260&action=edit&message=6&page=published Updated thoughts... still leaning towards the ECWMF solution given the trends today, track hasn't been adjusted much except for lowing the max intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWCREATURE1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 C What is the source of this graphic? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Even at just 6hrs in, 00z GFS showing major changes in the nothern plains/Western US trough. Looks less amplified in the northern plains region. Looks like this run may come in further west, at least initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 What is the source of this graphic? Thanks. http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracking.asp#Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 00Z GFS a hair west of 18Z at 30 hours, seems correct given the latest recon data... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Even at just 6hrs in, 00z GFS showing major changes in the nothern plains/Western US trough. Looks less amplified in the northern plains region. Looks like this run may come in further west, at least initially. Another thing worth paying attention to is if there is a little piece of s/w energy in MI/IL area at around 66 hours... the 12z ECWMF had a small s/w in this area that dug down in front of the kicker shortwave that slowed its progress, while also allowing Irene to take a more leftward track up the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Another thing worth paying attention to is if there is a little piece of s/w energy in MI/IL area at around 66 hours... the 12z ECWMF had a small s/w in this area that dug down in front of the kicker shortwave that slowed its progress, while also allowing Irene to take a more leftward track up the coastline. Wow thankyou for that graphic. I am curious what is leading to the vast changes run-to-run in the western "kicker" & if that potentially has an impact on the Central US shortwave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFS appears to have initialized too far Southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 hard to tell how west it is compared to a bit slower etc than 18z, tho looks to make landfall/close on outer banks at 72... almost identical to 12z euro thus far but next few frames had more divergence b/w the two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFS appears to have initialized too far Southwest Looks fine to me based on latest obs/imagery. Remember not to look at the "L" symbol. In fact the 18z GFS had Irene exactly where the 00z GFS has it at initialization, as does imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 hard to tell how west it is compared to a bit slower etc than 18z, tho looks to make landfall/close on outerbanks at 72... almost identical to 12z euro thus far but next few frames had more divergence b/w the two I have the eye on Hatteras at 72 after zooming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFS appears to have initialized too far Southwest Just played around with it for a few minutes and if anything it's ~30 miles too far to the NE, but I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt and call it close enough (the center of the wind field seems right on, but the MSL chart seems displaced approx 30 miles too far to the NE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Most def 00z GFS is west at 78... you can clearly tell when you compare it with 18z 84 84 really close to landfall on Ocean City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 About 30-40 mi east of SBY at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 What I don't understand is why the models have the storm stregnthening as it passes Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 90hr...center over coastal Ocean County NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 A beautiful graphic distribution on heavy qpf. Bulleye of ~10" of rainfall just south of Long Island. Courtesy of HPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Basically sitting on the Jersey shore N of ACY at 90 hours...definitely west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 What I don't understand is why the models have the storm stregnthening as it passes Hatteras. Well, the Globals have the intensity wrong to begin with (way too weak), I think the models is just "catching up" so the pressure by the time it gets up there may be closer to reality.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Phasing begins further south. I don't know what it's phasing with, but it's sure kepping it northwest and making it grow larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 A beautiful graphic distribution on heavy qpf. Bulleye of ~10" of rainfall just south of Long Island. Courtesy of HPC. that might need some updates to the sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It's also quite a bit slower this run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Precip shield is also further west, bringing heavier rains over very saturated areas. Major flooding likely, if verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 96hr center over the CT/NY border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFS landfall central Jersey, then right over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 96 over or just east of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It's also quite a bit slower this run.... pretty close to the euro.. a few hours slower than previous gfs tho the westward shift might also have something to do with that feel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Crushing track in terms of rainfall.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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