LocoAko Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 18z GFS at 96hr...966mb right at Long Island/NYC It is actually over the far eastern end of LI near the Twin Forks. Not that close to NYC, just fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 18z HWRF came west FWIW,,, first landfall near OBX.. second on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Wow....I'm even surprised the HWRF can depict such a low pressure so far up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Just an FYI regarding upper air sampling schedule and the scope of coverage: Wed Aug 24 22:16:12 2011 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 242215 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD2214Z WED AUG 24 2011NWSHQ DIRECTIVE TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS /SOUNDINGS/...SDM IS HEREBY RELAYING A DIRECTIVE FROM NWSHQ FOR WFO/SIN ALL OF EASTERN..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS PLUS MONTANA IN WESTERN REGION TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS/SOUNDINGS/ BEGINNING AT THU 25 AUG 06Z AND UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THIS DIRECTIVE IS TO PROVIDE ADDITIONALDATA INPUT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INFORECASTING THE FUTURE TRACK AND IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IRENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Wow....I'm even surprised the HWRF can depict such a low pressure so far up: 928mb just before landfall on western LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 18z GFS at 96hr...966mb right at Long Island/NYC What was Gloria at landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 What was Gloria at landfall? 961 mb. Pressures in the low 960s are relatively common with hurricanes landfalling on LI. P.S. I measured 965 mb in Huntington as the eye passed over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 928mb just before landfall on western LI Add at least 30 mb to that to get an idea of what it will really be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 What was Gloria at landfall? I think around 962mb and probably 90-95 mph. NHC was saying it was 115 or so at landfall but that quickly became apparent it was not the case. There was some minor structural damage in east Suffolk which usually indicates winds to 110-115 mph...adding the east quadrant forward speed that seems possible. The only official gusts were 84 mph at ISP at 96 mph at BDR. But if BDR gusted to 96 that likely means places just across the coast in Port Jefferson gusted to near 100 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I think around 962mb and probably 90-95 mph. NHC was saying it was 115 or so at landfall but that quickly became apparent it was not the case. There was some minor structural damage in east Suffolk which usually indicates winds to 110-115 mph...adding the east quadrant forward speed that seems possible. The only official gusts were 84 mph at ISP at 96 mph at BDR. But if BDR gusted to 96 that likely means places just across the coast in Port Jefferson gusted to near 100 as well. Not that high. At landfall on LI, Gloria was 961 mb/75 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Not that high. At landfall on LI, Gloria was 961 mb/75 kt. Gloria had a pretty low pressure for a cat 1. That is similar to the pressures Bob and Carol had IIRC...Carol was a little lower but not by a lot. I think it was 960mb in RI, but I assume it was a few ticks lower on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Add at least 30 mb to that to get an idea of what it will really be. Sounds like Donna. I'm getting excited, this is my first one here with bonafide weather tools and the internet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Gloria had a pretty low pressure for a cat 1. That is similar to the pressures Bob and Carol had IIRC...Carol was a little lower but not by a lot. I think it was 960mb in RI, but I assume it was a few ticks lower on LI. Yeah... Bob was 962mb on BID Carol was 955mb in East Hampton and 960mb in Groton, CT 1938 was 941mb in NY and 946mb in New Haven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 FYI, NCEP is going to start using its parallel NAM firewx nest to run over Irene...likely at 18Z tomorrow....I think. NHC is very interested to see and so am I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 FYI, NCEP is going to start using its parallel NAM firewx nest to run over Irene...likely at 18Z tomorrow....I think. NHC is very interested to see and so am I. Thanks for the heads up. Do you have any information about the differences between that and the 'traditional' NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 18z GFDL slower than the 18z HWRF when you compare them at 72 hrs... HWRF nearing landfall in NC... GFDL south of NC by 200ish miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Just an FYI regarding upper air sampling schedule and the scope of coverage: Wed Aug 24 22:16:12 2011 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 242215 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD2214Z WED AUG 24 2011NWSHQ DIRECTIVE TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS /SOUNDINGS/...SDM IS HEREBY RELAYING A DIRECTIVE FROM NWSHQ FOR WFO/SIN ALL OF EASTERN..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS PLUS MONTANA IN WESTERN REGION TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS/SOUNDINGS/ BEGINNING AT THU 25 AUG 06Z AND UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THIS DIRECTIVE IS TO PROVIDE ADDITIONALDATA INPUT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INFORECASTING THE FUTURE TRACK AND IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IRENE. This is a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Thanks for the heads up. Do you have any information about the differences between that and the 'traditional' NAM? http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin11-16nam_changes.htm Everything I've heard about the NAM upgrade has been very positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This is a big deal. Wow... don't remember ever seeing that done before for such a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This is a big deal. a good decision based on the number of people potentially in the path.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFDL....over E. NJ right up the HRV...(maybe just east by a few miles): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Thanks for the heads up. Do you have any information about the differences between that and the 'traditional' NAM? The firewx nest is run at very high resolution, 1.5 km I think, as a one way nest from the parent nam model. The 12 km nam model itself contains various changes as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This is a big deal. I am very pleased to hear about the 6 hour balloon launches in Montana... this should help sample the kicker shortwave that is still over the pacific better when it comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Just an FYI regarding upper air sampling schedule and the scope of coverage: Wed Aug 24 22:16:12 2011 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 242215 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD2214Z WED AUG 24 2011NWSHQ DIRECTIVE TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS /SOUNDINGS/...SDM IS HEREBY RELAYING A DIRECTIVE FROM NWSHQ FOR WFO/SIN ALL OF EASTERN..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS PLUS MONTANA IN WESTERN REGION TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS/SOUNDINGS/ BEGINNING AT THU 25 AUG 06Z AND UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THIS DIRECTIVE IS TO PROVIDE ADDITIONALDATA INPUT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INFORECASTING THE FUTURE TRACK AND IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IRENE. anyone know if environment canada going to help out with this effort as well with 6-hourly soundings in the Prairies, Ontario, Quebec, and Maritime Regions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 anyone know if environment canada going to help out with this effort as well with 6-hourly soundings in the Prairies, Ontario, Quebec, and Maritime Regions? Hmm wow, this is amazing especially considering most offices are chronically short on sondes. In fact we just got an email today talking about conserving ALL upper air data as their is hardly any left. Interesting. Here at LBF we are low on sondes like most offices. I am the upper air focal point here responsible for ordering/inventory on supplies. I guess I will be hearing about this tomorrow. "ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD2214Z WED AUG 24 2011NWSHQ DIRECTIVE TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS /SOUNDINGS/...SDM IS HEREBY RELAYING A DIRECTIVE FROM NWSHQ FOR WFO/SIN ALL OF EASTERN..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS PLUS MONTANA IN WESTERN REGION TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS/SOUNDINGS/ BEGINNING AT THU 25 AUG 06Z AND UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THIS DIRECTIVE IS TO PROVIDE ADDITIONALDATA INPUT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INFORECASTING THE FUTURE TRACK AND IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IRENE." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Hmm wow, this is amazing especially considering most offices are chronically short on sondes. In fact we just got an email today talking about conserving ALL upper air data as their is hardly any left. Interesting. Here at LBF we are low on sondes like most offices. I am the upper air focal point here responsible for ordering/inventory on supplies. I guess I will be hearing about this tomorrow. dumb question: where are the sondes made, domestically, or are there a lot of parts made abroad? and are there any of the older sondes available to use in the interim, if you do run out before Irene passes new england? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I've yet to see any good answer on any of the threads on this site that tells me WHY most, if not all, of the models have pressure so low at 40N latitude. They can't all have the same bias can they?? I understand that the upper levels are ideal and shear is low, yada, yada, yada. But, these pressure forecasts are unreal. What are we missing here, or is the atmosphere in such a rare setup for a once a generation storm at these latitudes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 dumb question: where are the sondes made, domestically, or are there a lot of parts made abroad? and are there any of the older sondes available to use in the interim, if you do run out before Irene passes new england? They are Microart MkII sondes made by Lockheed Martin. The older sondes are not compatible with the new GPS sonde system/software, and we are already on the very low end regarding supplies. "Reconditioned" sondes are used, but these come with variable quality and have higher error/failure rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFDL....over E. NJ right up the HRV...(maybe just east by a few miles): It can't get much worse than that. Or that bad either. It picks up some forward speed after the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIUmetGF Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow, must be freaking out about the possibility of NYC getting hit. That is an enormous amount of offices to be doing 4 balloons a day. We had to send 20 of our sondes out to one of the WSOs here in Alaska due to the shortage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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