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Hurricane Irene Model and Forecast Discussion


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Just an FYI regarding upper air sampling schedule and the scope of coverage:

Wed Aug 24 22:16:12 2011 GMT

NOUS42 KWNO 242215

ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD2214Z WED AUG 24 2011NWSHQ DIRECTIVE TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS /SOUNDINGS/...SDM IS HEREBY RELAYING A DIRECTIVE FROM NWSHQ FOR WFO/SIN ALL OF EASTERN..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS PLUS MONTANA IN WESTERN REGION TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS/SOUNDINGS/ BEGINNING AT THU 25 AUG 06Z AND UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THIS DIRECTIVE IS TO PROVIDE ADDITIONALDATA INPUT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INFORECASTING THE FUTURE TRACK AND IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IRENE.

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What was Gloria at landfall?

I think around 962mb and probably 90-95 mph. NHC was saying it was 115 or so at landfall but that quickly became apparent it was not the case. There was some minor structural damage in east Suffolk which usually indicates winds to 110-115 mph...adding the east quadrant forward speed that seems possible. The only official gusts were 84 mph at ISP at 96 mph at BDR. But if BDR gusted to 96 that likely means places just across the coast in Port Jefferson gusted to near 100 as well.

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I think around 962mb and probably 90-95 mph. NHC was saying it was 115 or so at landfall but that quickly became apparent it was not the case. There was some minor structural damage in east Suffolk which usually indicates winds to 110-115 mph...adding the east quadrant forward speed that seems possible. The only official gusts were 84 mph at ISP at 96 mph at BDR. But if BDR gusted to 96 that likely means places just across the coast in Port Jefferson gusted to near 100 as well.

Not that high. At landfall on LI, Gloria was 961 mb/75 kt.

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Not that high. At landfall on LI, Gloria was 961 mb/75 kt.

Gloria had a pretty low pressure for a cat 1. That is similar to the pressures Bob and Carol had IIRC...Carol was a little lower but not by a lot. I think it was 960mb in RI, but I assume it was a few ticks lower on LI.

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Gloria had a pretty low pressure for a cat 1. That is similar to the pressures Bob and Carol had IIRC...Carol was a little lower but not by a lot. I think it was 960mb in RI, but I assume it was a few ticks lower on LI.

Yeah...

Bob was 962mb on BID

Carol was 955mb in East Hampton and 960mb in Groton, CT

1938 was 941mb in NY and 946mb in New Haven

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FYI, NCEP is going to start using its parallel NAM firewx nest to run over Irene...likely at 18Z tomorrow....I think. NHC is very interested to see and so am I.

Thanks for the heads up. Do you have any information about the differences between that and the 'traditional' NAM?

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Just an FYI regarding upper air sampling schedule and the scope of coverage:

Wed Aug 24 22:16:12 2011 GMT

NOUS42 KWNO 242215

ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD2214Z WED AUG 24 2011NWSHQ DIRECTIVE TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS /SOUNDINGS/...SDM IS HEREBY RELAYING A DIRECTIVE FROM NWSHQ FOR WFO/SIN ALL OF EASTERN..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS PLUS MONTANA IN WESTERN REGION TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS/SOUNDINGS/ BEGINNING AT THU 25 AUG 06Z AND UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THIS DIRECTIVE IS TO PROVIDE ADDITIONALDATA INPUT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INFORECASTING THE FUTURE TRACK AND IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IRENE.

This is a big deal.

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Thanks for the heads up. Do you have any information about the differences between that and the 'traditional' NAM?

The firewx nest is run at very high resolution, 1.5 km I think, as a one way nest from the parent nam model.

The 12 km nam model itself contains various changes as well.

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Just an FYI regarding upper air sampling schedule and the scope of coverage:

Wed Aug 24 22:16:12 2011 GMT

NOUS42 KWNO 242215

ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD2214Z WED AUG 24 2011NWSHQ DIRECTIVE TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS /SOUNDINGS/...SDM IS HEREBY RELAYING A DIRECTIVE FROM NWSHQ FOR WFO/SIN ALL OF EASTERN..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS PLUS MONTANA IN WESTERN REGION TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS/SOUNDINGS/ BEGINNING AT THU 25 AUG 06Z AND UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THIS DIRECTIVE IS TO PROVIDE ADDITIONALDATA INPUT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INFORECASTING THE FUTURE TRACK AND IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IRENE.

anyone know if environment canada going to help out with this effort as well with 6-hourly soundings in the Prairies, Ontario, Quebec, and Maritime Regions?

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anyone know if environment canada going to help out with this effort as well with 6-hourly soundings in the Prairies, Ontario, Quebec, and Maritime Regions?

Hmm wow, this is amazing especially considering most offices are chronically short on sondes. In fact we just got an email today talking about conserving ALL upper air data as their is hardly any left. Interesting. Here at LBF we are low on sondes like most offices. I am the upper air focal point here responsible for ordering/inventory on supplies. I guess I will be hearing about this tomorrow.arrowheadsmiley.png

"ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD2214Z WED AUG 24 2011NWSHQ DIRECTIVE TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS /SOUNDINGS/...SDM IS HEREBY RELAYING A DIRECTIVE FROM NWSHQ FOR WFO/SIN ALL OF EASTERN..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS PLUS MONTANA IN WESTERN REGION TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS/SOUNDINGS/ BEGINNING AT THU 25 AUG 06Z AND UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THIS DIRECTIVE IS TO PROVIDE ADDITIONALDATA INPUT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INFORECASTING THE FUTURE TRACK AND IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IRENE."

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Hmm wow, this is amazing especially considering most offices are chronically short on sondes. In fact we just got an email today talking about conserving ALL upper air data as their is hardly any left. Interesting. Here at LBF we are low on sondes like most offices. I am the upper air focal point here responsible for ordering/inventory on supplies. I guess I will be hearing about this tomorrow.arrowheadsmiley.png

dumb question: where are the sondes made, domestically, or are there a lot of parts made abroad? and are there any of the older sondes available to use in the interim, if you do run out before Irene passes new england?

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I've yet to see any good answer on any of the threads on this site that tells me WHY most, if not all, of the models have pressure so low at 40N latitude. They can't all have the same bias can they?? I understand that the upper levels are ideal and shear is low, yada, yada, yada. But, these pressure forecasts are unreal. What are we missing here, or is the atmosphere in such a rare setup for a once a generation storm at these latitudes?

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dumb question: where are the sondes made, domestically, or are there a lot of parts made abroad? and are there any of the older sondes available to use in the interim, if you do run out before Irene passes new england?

They are Microart MkII sondes made by Lockheed Martin. The older sondes are not compatible with the new GPS sonde system/software, and we are already on the very low end regarding supplies. "Reconditioned" sondes are used, but these come with variable quality and have higher error/failure rates.

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