LakeEffectKing Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 My crack pipe was taken from me for 40 minutes.....glad I got it back!! The EnKF GFS from 12z....looks like Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The ECMWF is sniffing out the theta-e ridge in response to the height recovery downstream of the s/w (the one that won't reach British Columbia until Friday). While that should be noted, I think it also needs to be blended with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 My crack pipe was taken from me for 40 minutes.....glad I got it back!! The EnKF GFS from 12z....looks like Euro: Thanks for posting that! Wow... they are nearly identical... what strength does it look to be at near landfall in NJ and/or DE ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 My crack pipe was taken from me for 40 minutes.....glad I got it back!! The EnKF GFS from 12z....looks like Euro: You stole my thunder, I was literally just about to post this..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 You stole my thunder, I was literally just about to post this..... Sorry about that! BTW, thanks for all your contributions to this board during these "fun" times.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Are there any public sites where SLOSH output will be available for Irene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Thanks for posting that! Wow... they are nearly identical... what strength does it look to be at near landfall in NJ and/or DE ish? It looks to be 955 just off the NJ coast at f-102hr. These are GFS wind speeds, so you need to interpret accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 18z SHIPS 13kt shear initially (down from 20+kt at 12z initially), dropping down to 7 kt by this evening and then staying less than 10kt. There is some evidence of this drop off looking at the IR, with more bands developing west of the system without any problems. It is worth noting that the SHIPS keeps the intensity quite high as it heads northward, dropping it only 5kt (from 105kt to 100kt) during the 36 hour period from 48 hours at 30.3N to 84 hours at 36.9N, as well as keeping it at 92kt as it passes 40N. Also, no surprise with the outer eye evident from observations by microwave satellite and recon ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/24/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 27( 47) 30( 63) 28( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 65 72( 90) 78( 98) 33( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Thanks for posting that! Wow... they are nearly identical... what strength does it look to be at near landfall in NJ and/or DE ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It looks to be 955 just off the NJ coast at f-102hr. These are GFS wind speeds, so you need to interpret accordingly. . Thanks! So in strength terms, the Euro and the GFSE seem to have the same general trends as Irene passes DE and NJ... except the Euro is of course noticeably stronger (and as mentioned previously, probably a bit too much as has been seen in the WPAC this year).... we could easily be looking at something in the 940s coming up that way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The consensus of the early cycle 18z dynamic models shifted about 50-100 miles west from 12z: 12z: 18z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The consensus of the early cycle 18z dynamic models shifted about 50-100 miles west from 12z: This makes sense, and is really a reflection of the westward shift observed in the actual 12z model runs (EC, GFS, Hurr models, etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The consensus of the early cycle 18z dynamic models shifted about 50-100 miles west from 12z: 12z: 18z: I don't know if they neccessarily moved much more west. It looks like they're just more clustered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 cool page for comparo euro/hwrf/gfdl/gfs http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/plots/uv900panel3_anim.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Are there any public sites where SLOSH output will be available for Irene? This might be as close as it gets. I think Weather Underground might post something closer to landfall as well. http://www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/active.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I don't know if this was posted but damn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I don't know if this was posted but damn... Going to be some impressive blow out tides with those NW winds! At the very least this is going to be an issue for marinas and the coastal community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I don't know if they neccessarily moved much more west. It looks like they're just more clustered. Agreed, I actually thought the OP had the timestamps reversed looking at the maps. There are far fewer outliers showing a strike west of the outer banks at 18z than at 12z, with a tight cluster now right over the Outer Banks. The top 12z image was just changed. I don't know if the other one was in error or not, but I see now what the OP was talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 One of those pieces of guidance (it's either in pink or orange and could be a GFDL run) is doing something with Irene's track which is quite possible offshore Cape Hatteras. As long as the hurricane has a CDO, it should be treated like any other mesoscale convective system. This means that it should ride along any natural baroclinic zone, such as the Gulf stream or the edge of the continental shelf (which becomes a natural baroclinic zone due to vertical mixing in the ocean caused by a hurricane), as long as the mean steering flow is within about 20 degrees of these thermal gradients. Also, as long as it has central convection, it is unlikely to cross 500 hPa height/1000-500 hpa thickness lines, although that can occur north of the Gulf Stream during extratropical transition once (or due to) thunderstorm activity weakening I don't know if they neccessarily moved much more west. It looks like they're just more clustered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Are there any public sites where SLOSH output will be available for Irene? You might enjoy looking at this. Click on the map and a zoomable PDF version opens. http://www2.sunysuff...surge_maps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 NAM through 78 is a good deal west compared to the 12Z at 84. At 84 it makes landfall west of Diamond Shoals NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Just for fun, here's an E-W cross section of Irene from the AmericanWx WRF model as it passes through the Northern Bahamas. Colors are wind speed, with dark purple 100+ KT. Contours are potential temperature. Model resolution 15 km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 NAM through 78 is a good deal west compared to the 12Z at 84. At 84 it makes landfall west of Diamond Shoals NC The W ATL ridge is positioned perfectly to send Irene up the coastal waters ala the Euro...further west and aligned NW to SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 This might be as close as it gets. I think Weather Underground might post something closer to landfall as well. http://www.weather.g...urge/active.php You might enjoy looking at this. Click on the map and a zoomable PDF version opens. http://www2.sunysuff...surge_maps.html Thanks,I guess Wunderground will eventually add a detailed one for Irene. http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/surge_anim.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 NAM through 78 is a good deal west compared to the 12Z at 84. At 84 it makes landfall west of Diamond Shoals NC Well it is the NAM but what is interesting is it seems to hold a due north movement with very little east component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Of note, I was expecting the Euro ensembles to bias to the right of the operational Euro track. They did not. In fact, the Op Euro is split right down the middle of the ensemble tracks. NHC probably was wise to shift slightly west at 5 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Through 54 hours the GFS looks a little nw of its 12Z run position. The models are still searching for the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The 18Z 66hr GFS continues to be a little west of the 12Z track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks like the GFS brings it west of Hatteras this run and brings precip west to dc. Certainly a westward jog from the 12Z guidance. Still not enough for IAn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 18z GFS at 96hr...966mb right at Long Island/NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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