LocoAko Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Definitely north of its 18Z run position @ 66 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Nice to see the trough digging deeper. You'd really want it to dig further west than it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It'll send it further out to sea. Guess it depends on your perspective. Deeper shortwave would set up a better anomaly for NE. You'd really want it to dig further west than it is. True. Though with the ridge where it is over the W Atl makes it difficult for this to escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Big changes at hr72, trough lifts out faster than 18z, More ridging offshore positioned further westward, weaker ridge inland. I was originally thinking maybe a fish would result but it seems a bit less likely now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 You'd really want it to dig further west than it is. That would be an interesting situation. Storm becomes extra-tropical earlier, but a big rainmaker further south. I'll take that. Praying this post doesn't get deleted like every other post I make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Big changes at hr72, trough lifts out faster than 18z, More ridging offshore positioned further westward, weaker ridge inland. I was originally thinking maybe a fish would result but it seems a bit less likely now. Sometimes if you go too far in one direction.. then you end up right at where you were at.. Like taking 4 right turns. In this case.. it dug so far that it stalls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Already moving NNE at hr96, well south of HSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Def beginning to look like Irene may recurve just in time... but the effects will be felt on the coast 96 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 True. Though with the ridge where it is over the W Atl makes it difficult for this to escape. sure.. i dunno. just seems the trough hits its "diggiest" about when crossing erie and it's positive tilt. i guess it helps open a channel but it looks like there is still an escape route to the southeast of new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 sure.. i dunno. just seems the trough hits its "diggiest" about when crossing erie and it's positive tilt. i guess it helps open a channel but it looks like there is still an escape route to the southeast of new england. And I think the 00z GFS is about to find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Big NE shift in the GFS- this run puts SC out of the game but hints at a slowdown off NC at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Im out to hr 108 at sv for the 00z gfs......as was posted above it misses the trough, so is slowly drifts do north of the se coast.....hr 111 its about to make landfall on the outerbanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 00z GFS nearly 24 hours faster. To HSE at 114 vs. hr. 138 last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Outer Banks landfall at 117. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Outer Banks hit @ h120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The one encouraging thing is that it doesn't jet NE. In fact, it seems to trend from NNE to almost due N leading up to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 hr 123 fwiw crawling up the coast......right ontop of the outerbanks...heavys rains for eastern NC, eastern Va, and delmarva.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The trend is for a stronger first trough, and weaker second trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 hr 126 over duck nc hr 132 off va beach heading nne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The one encouraging thing is that it doesn't jet NE. In fact, it seems to trend from NNE to almost due N leading up to landfall. It nearly literally goes around SC/NC. It heads NW to NNW and then goes N and NNE just to miss this area only to curve back N and then NNW to hit I-95. I know it's just weather and physics...but seriously, wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 There are differences aloft with the core of the westerlies but through 120 hours they mean negligible differences on Irene - any time after that is exponentially error prone so forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It nearly literally goes around SC/NC. It heads NW to NNW and then goes N and NNE just to miss this area only to curve back N and then NNW to hit I-95. I know it's just weather and physics...but seriously, wtf? It was hinted on the 18z GFS but few would have seen that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 138 just east of ACY 144 100 miles offshore of NJ coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Walloping NJ/NYC/LI at 144. Somehow it managed to just drift almost directly northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Second landfall on eastern LI at 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 hr 144 just east of LBI, Nj hr 153 ontop of Ri.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Walloping NJ/NYC/LI at 144. Somehow it managed to just drift almost directly northward. With the weaker second trough, the westerlies are even further north. Irene is just crawling up the coast. Not exactly a textbook Northeast hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 00z through 150 would essentially be a Bob redux. W of Bob...its near the RI/CT border and then tracks over interior E MA. Not that this difference is meaningful whatsoever at this time range, but thought I'd point out that verbatim it woud definitely be west of Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 With the weaker second trough, the westerlies are even further north. Irene is just crawling up the coast. Not exactly a textbook Northeast hurricane No it is not... good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 W of Bob...its near the RI/CT border and then tracks over interior E MA. Not that this difference is meaningful whatsoever at this time range, but thought I'd point out that verbatim it woud definitely be west of Bob. We're also talking like 132-144 hrs+ out... regional subforum material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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