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Hurricane Irene Model and Forecast Discussion


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It'll send it further out to sea.

Guess it depends on your perspective. Deeper shortwave would set up a better anomaly for NE.

You'd really want it to dig further west than it is.

True. Though with the ridge where it is over the W Atl makes it difficult for this to escape.

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Big changes at hr72, trough lifts out faster than 18z, More ridging offshore positioned further westward, weaker ridge inland.

I was originally thinking maybe a fish would result but it seems a bit less likely now.

Sometimes if you go too far in one direction.. then you end up right at where you were at.. Like taking 4 right turns.

In this case.. it dug so far that it stalls!

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True. Though with the ridge where it is over the W Atl makes it difficult for this to escape.

sure.. i dunno. just seems the trough hits its "diggiest" about when crossing erie and it's positive tilt. i guess it helps open a channel but it looks like there is still an escape route to the southeast of new england.

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The one encouraging thing is that it doesn't jet NE. In fact, it seems to trend from NNE to almost due N leading up to landfall.

It nearly literally goes around SC/NC. It heads NW to NNW and then goes N and NNE just to miss this area only to curve back N and then NNW to hit I-95. I know it's just weather and physics...but seriously, wtf?

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It nearly literally goes around SC/NC. It heads NW to NNW and then goes N and NNE just to miss this area only to curve back N and then NNW to hit I-95. I know it's just weather and physics...but seriously, wtf?

It was hinted on the 18z GFS but few would have seen that -

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00z through 150 would essentially be a Bob redux.

W of Bob...its near the RI/CT border and then tracks over interior E MA. Not that this difference is meaningful whatsoever at this time range, but thought I'd point out that verbatim it woud definitely be west of Bob.

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W of Bob...its near the RI/CT border and then tracks over interior E MA. Not that this difference is meaningful whatsoever at this time range, but thought I'd point out that verbatim it woud definitely be west of Bob.

We're also talking like 132-144 hrs+ out... regional subforum material. :P

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