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Hurricane Irene Model and Forecast Discussion


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:lol:

Good points.

NHC put E MA into a hurricane warning during Earl last year...which in my mind was possibly the most inexplicable hurricane warning ever issued there. I do not want to turn this into a lame NHC bash thread, but that was possibly the worst I have ever seen. Almost every single New England meteorologist was saying how even hurricane conditions were almost nil unless perhaps you were on ACK (nantucket) and even that was a long shot. Just a horrible piece of public awareness report...I know they have protocol for their cone of uncerntainty, but that was a perfect example of why its so flawed. We had news stations obsesssing over the hurricane warning while every met with a brain between their ears was saying this was absolutely no big deal and just some heavy rain with 30 knot gusts...nevermind sustained winds.

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Nice loop, Phil-- saved (it's nice to see even if it's just a simulation :P) How deep was it progged to be over the twin forks?

Sorry, I didn't see your question earlier... looks like the pressure in NYC is between 968 and 976... minimum for the storm is still sub 940 though so I don't know how reliable that is.

2nsqrr7.png

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Its not unusual to see a bit of a converging at various cycles during these systems. We saw it with Isabel in 2003 where every model had NYC/LI getting hit and then after a good 36 hours of near steadfast agreement they all began swinging back to the SW. I still have a feeling there may be a very strong eastward run by the models sometime around 36 hours from now. I'm continuing to lean towards something between Bob and Edouard as far as landfall which would put it into SE MA.

You misspoke, Edouard didn't really come close to landfalling in SE MA (ack aside). Edna?

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Basically if you live in LI, CT, RI, or MA you generally want to find yourself near or west of the forecast landfall point at days 3-5. If you had 100 storms forecast to come ashore in this region, probably 85 or so would trend eastward in some form from the initial track at 96 or 120 hours. As a result, places like LGA, JFK, Farmingdale, Norwalk and Greenwich I'd feel pretty good right now if I lived there...you may have a very windy and rainy day on Sunday into Sunday night but the odds you're going to see total destruction or devastation solely based on past storms and how these usually come up the coast is very low.

Norcross was trying to play up the 1944 analog, saying this storm is going to be huge like that was (and like Ike was) and there will be significant damage west of the path to NYC even if it goes over MTP. 1944 is the only one I can remember that had a significant surge west of the track and basically demolished coastal NJ. NHC was also using that analog last night.

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FWIW the new sref ensemble run has a fairly large amount of members that are a major hit for NC then north. Not that it means much but its interesting to see the NAM has agreement from its ensembles.

http://www.meteo.psu...z/srefloop.html

I honestly wouldn't even look at the NAM or SREF for the next 3-4 days. I remember it took Don still into Houston as a major storm I think 36 hours in (among many other past failures as well). I don't like to say this about any one model, but the NAM and SREF are both probably close to useless in this situation.

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Maybe the bleeding has stopped? 06z gfs is noticeably west of 00z and faster.

EDIT: Through 63 hours its a noticeable amount further west... might be a direct hit for Outer Banks again.

Through 84 it's about 20-30 miles northwest...it's not a huge shift but it is a nudge towards the west.

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I honestly wouldn't even look at the NAM or SREF for the next 3-4 days. I remember it took Don still into Houston as a major storm I think 36 hours in (among many other past failures as well). I don't like to say this about any one model, but the NAM and SREF are both probably close to useless in this situation.

I can not agree more NAM for a long time had Miami getting hit long after we shifted east .

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Through 84 it's about 20-30 miles northwest...it's not a huge shift but it is a nudge towards the west.

looks like at initialization it corrected its self slightly with the current 500 MB set up in place

500mb.gif?1314180739754

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_000m.gif

Still off a tad but we should not go to crazy over this just yet. with this being said the slight correction the GFS did from the 00z run has allowed for this shift west. now we just wait and see if future runs continue this.

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Through 105 it's a smidge faster (20 miles, if that)...generally landfall in SE Mass. No huge change.

How far off NJ coast is it, and does it hit LI at all? Also, does the precip shield move to the left of the path, or does the storm retain much of its tropical features?? One last question, any hint of the pre-storm inverted trough as suggested by DRAG last evening for Friday/Saturday?

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How far off NJ coast is it, and does it hit LI at all? Also, does the precip shield move to the left of the path, or does the storm retain much of its tropical features?? One last question, any hint of the pre-storm inverted trough as suggested by DRAG last evening for Friday/Saturday?

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/model_loops/06zgfs_namer_pcp.php

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How far off NJ coast is it, and does it hit LI at all? Also, does the precip shield more to the left of the path, or does the storm retain much of its tropical features?? One last question, any hint of the pre-storm inverted trough as suggested by DRAG last evening for Friday/Saturday?

Heavy rain generally 95 and east (a bit more expanse in QPF shield to 0z so it looks a bit more west). Hint of PRE but it's Shore only (at least IOBY) and on Saturday.

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I can not agree more either the models are right and it goes east or its just like the winter snow storms where the 500mb level ends up shifting this back west in the long run due to poor data out of other countries. Anything can happen at this point.

Again note the HUGE differences going on out west with the second kicker. I'm growing more and more convinced THAT is the feature we should be following. God this is just like winter where stuff all comes down to Pacific shortwaves where we have literally have no sampling...

28jxwsy.gif

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