HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The 5 am advisory has the cyclone just grazing Cape Hatteras and coming ashore on E LI and extreme SE CT/RI. The Day 5 position is over inland RI with winds of 70 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Good points. NHC put E MA into a hurricane warning during Earl last year...which in my mind was possibly the most inexplicable hurricane warning ever issued there. I do not want to turn this into a lame NHC bash thread, but that was possibly the worst I have ever seen. Almost every single New England meteorologist was saying how even hurricane conditions were almost nil unless perhaps you were on ACK (nantucket) and even that was a long shot. Just a horrible piece of public awareness report...I know they have protocol for their cone of uncerntainty, but that was a perfect example of why its so flawed. We had news stations obsesssing over the hurricane warning while every met with a brain between their ears was saying this was absolutely no big deal and just some heavy rain with 30 knot gusts...nevermind sustained winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Nice loop, Phil-- saved (it's nice to see even if it's just a simulation ) How deep was it progged to be over the twin forks? Sorry, I didn't see your question earlier... looks like the pressure in NYC is between 968 and 976... minimum for the storm is still sub 940 though so I don't know how reliable that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Thanks man-- you're quite artistic with your graphics That 968 mb over this area (basically that isobar goes right over my house on that sim) would be close to matching the Tax Day noreaster in April 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 00z Euro ensembles are awfully far W down near NC almost making LF there...barely E of Morehead City....but then they trend E up north probably crossing SE MA at Plymouth or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Its not unusual to see a bit of a converging at various cycles during these systems. We saw it with Isabel in 2003 where every model had NYC/LI getting hit and then after a good 36 hours of near steadfast agreement they all began swinging back to the SW. I still have a feeling there may be a very strong eastward run by the models sometime around 36 hours from now. I'm continuing to lean towards something between Bob and Edouard as far as landfall which would put it into SE MA. You misspoke, Edouard didn't really come close to landfalling in SE MA (ack aside). Edna? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Basically if you live in LI, CT, RI, or MA you generally want to find yourself near or west of the forecast landfall point at days 3-5. If you had 100 storms forecast to come ashore in this region, probably 85 or so would trend eastward in some form from the initial track at 96 or 120 hours. As a result, places like LGA, JFK, Farmingdale, Norwalk and Greenwich I'd feel pretty good right now if I lived there...you may have a very windy and rainy day on Sunday into Sunday night but the odds you're going to see total destruction or devastation solely based on past storms and how these usually come up the coast is very low. Norcross was trying to play up the 1944 analog, saying this storm is going to be huge like that was (and like Ike was) and there will be significant damage west of the path to NYC even if it goes over MTP. 1944 is the only one I can remember that had a significant surge west of the track and basically demolished coastal NJ. NHC was also using that analog last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The NAM has been sleeping thru this event so for what its worth....NAM would prob be a big hit http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/model_loops/06znam_namer_pcp.php Headed NNW at the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 My gut feeling it would take similar track when it moves north like Edward and Earl or it will completely go further out to sea and only effects with the exception perhaps the cape will be heavy surf and bad rip current. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 FWIW the new sref ensemble run has a fairly large amount of members that are a major hit for NC then north. Not that it means much but its interesting to see the NAM has agreement from its ensembles. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PRSNE_3z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 FWIW the new sref ensemble run has a fairly large amount of members that are a major hit for NC then north. Not that it means much but its interesting to see the NAM has agreement from its ensembles. http://www.meteo.psu...z/srefloop.html I honestly wouldn't even look at the NAM or SREF for the next 3-4 days. I remember it took Don still into Houston as a major storm I think 36 hours in (among many other past failures as well). I don't like to say this about any one model, but the NAM and SREF are both probably close to useless in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Maybe the bleeding has stopped? 06z gfs is noticeably west of 00z and faster. EDIT: Through 63 hours its a noticeable amount further west... might be a direct hit for Outer Banks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Maybe the bleeding has stopped? 06z gfs is noticeably west of 00z and faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Maybe the bleeding has stopped? 06z gfs is noticeably west of 00z and faster. EDIT: Through 63 hours its a noticeable amount further west... might be a direct hit for Outer Banks again. Through 84 it's about 20-30 miles northwest...it's not a huge shift but it is a nudge towards the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Through 84 it's about 20-30 miles northwest...it's not a huge shift but it is a nudge towards the west. Yes, not huge... but seems much closer in line with the ECWMF so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Through 84 it's about 20-30 miles northwest...it's not a huge shift but it is a nudge towards the west. Yes, not huge... but seems much closer in line with the ECWMF so far. Somethin' to live for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I honestly wouldn't even look at the NAM or SREF for the next 3-4 days. I remember it took Don still into Houston as a major storm I think 36 hours in (among many other past failures as well). I don't like to say this about any one model, but the NAM and SREF are both probably close to useless in this situation. I can not agree more NAM for a long time had Miami getting hit long after we shifted east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Through 84 it's about 20-30 miles northwest...it's not a huge shift but it is a nudge towards the west. looks like at initialization it corrected its self slightly with the current 500 MB set up in place http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_000m.gif Still off a tad but we should not go to crazy over this just yet. with this being said the slight correction the GFS did from the 00z run has allowed for this shift west. now we just wait and see if future runs continue this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Maybe the bleeding has stopped? 06z gfs is noticeably west of 00z and faster. EDIT: Through 63 hours its a noticeable amount further west... might be a direct hit for Outer Banks again. LOL. The good ole N&W trend teaser on the GFS sucking everyone back in for another six hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Through 105 it's a smidge faster (20 miles, if that)...generally landfall in SE Mass. No huge change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Through 105 it's a smidge faster (20 miles, if that)...generally landfall in SE Mass. No huge change. How far off NJ coast is it, and does it hit LI at all? Also, does the precip shield move to the left of the path, or does the storm retain much of its tropical features?? One last question, any hint of the pre-storm inverted trough as suggested by DRAG last evening for Friday/Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 How far off NJ coast is it, and does it hit LI at all? Also, does the precip shield move to the left of the path, or does the storm retain much of its tropical features?? One last question, any hint of the pre-storm inverted trough as suggested by DRAG last evening for Friday/Saturday? http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/model_loops/06zgfs_namer_pcp.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The changes are not noticeable with Irene that much at 96 hours, but god are there some major changes with the kicker behind the second trough out in Montana... MUCH weaker. It causes everything to be slightly less progressive and that's a good thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 How far off NJ coast is it, and does it hit LI at all? Also, does the precip shield more to the left of the path, or does the storm retain much of its tropical features?? One last question, any hint of the pre-storm inverted trough as suggested by DRAG last evening for Friday/Saturday? Heavy rain generally 95 and east (a bit more expanse in QPF shield to 0z so it looks a bit more west). Hint of PRE but it's Shore only (at least IOBY) and on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Still east of LI but that so far it still alive. I have feeling the 12z models will ruined and go back further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Again note the HUGE differences going on out west with the second kicker. I'm growing more and more convinced THAT is the feature we should be following. God this is just like winter where stuff all comes down to Pacific shortwaves where we have literally have no sampling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Thanks for making these animations, Phil-- it's a great way to compare the subtle differences. Definitely a small bit of encouragement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I can not agree more either the models are right and it goes east or its just like the winter snow storms where the 500mb level ends up shifting this back west in the long run due to poor data out of other countries. Anything can happen at this point. Again note the HUGE differences going on out west with the second kicker. I'm growing more and more convinced THAT is the feature we should be following. God this is just like winter where stuff all comes down to Pacific shortwaves where we have literally have no sampling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I was just gonna say, Phil, this is like Boxing Day all over again when we were watching for the kicker. Let's hope we're not having some kind of 6z/18z data burp like we get in the winter and it's the start of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I was just gonna say, Phil, this is like Boxing Day all over again when we were watching for the kicker. Let's hope we're not having some kind of 6z/18z data burp like we get in the winter. Yep, that's pretty much what I was thinking about too... same story different season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.