Hurricane Irene Model and Forecast Discussion

[Cfa]

Actually I hope it goes over NJ than the northeast part will have more interesting weather with heavy rain/strong winds and possibly a tornado threat as well if this solution was to pan out but I doubt that.

I agree 100%.

[A-L-E-X]

Depends. Not if it's a good cyclone. If it's a falling-apart piece of crap, then yes, you're right.

P.S. You see heavy rain all the time, whereas you never see hurricane winds-- so why would you be so keen to just see something you see all the time anyway?

lol I was kidding, I'm actually going to head to the east end if this pans out. It's a nice scenic drive

[HurricaneJosh]

lol I was kidding, I'm actually going to head to the east end if this pans out. It's a nice scenic drive

Cool. I was beginning to think you were nuts.

[Thunderdude]

Depends. Not if it's a good cyclone. If it's a falling-apart piece of crap, then yes, you're right.

P.S. You see heavy rain all the time, whereas you never see hurricane winds-- so why would you be so keen to just see something you see all the time anyway?

Remember this is a chance this could be in the progress of lost its tropical features so there maybe some wind and rain on the western side but the eastern side has more the excitement like it usually the case when the storm goes from tropical to extra-tropical.

[A-L-E-X]

Depends. Not if it's a good cyclone. If it's a falling-apart piece of crap, then yes, you're right.

P.S. You see heavy rain all the time, whereas you never see hurricane winds-- so why would you be so keen to just see something you see all the time anyway?

but if we get something like what Floyd was when it got up here then yes-- it's going to be a falling apart piece of crap lol.

[A-L-E-X]

Remember this is a chance this could be in the progress of lost its tropical features so there maybe some wind and rain on the western side but the eastern side has more the excitement like it usually the case when the storm goes from tropical to extra-tropical.

Pure tropical systems are MUCH better, but we rarely get them here

[Brent]

It can be argued that at some poiint the E trend is bound to stop. Certain models trended W tonight.

Speak for yourself.

Meh. I'm convinced this is a miss. How did it come to this.

[Thunderdude]

but if we get something like what Floyd was when it got up here then yes-- it's going to be a falling apart piece of crap lol.

Even more Hanna in 2008 when it came up here it basically lost a good part of its tropical features when it came up here. There was good dose of heavy rains but it was more hybrid storm system oppose to a tropical storm. Even with Floyd alot of rain but very little in the way of wind and I lived in Queens at the time and moved just to the east.

[A-L-E-X]

Even more Hanna in 2008 when it came up here it basically lost a good part of its tropical features when it came up here. There was good dose of heavy rains but it was more hybrid storm system oppose to a tropical storm. Even with Floyd alot of rain but very little in the way of wind and I lived in Queens at the time and moved just to the east.

Yeah all the heavy rain and flooding with Floyd was back in NJ and PA

[HurricaneJosh]

Remember this is a chance this could be in the progress of lost its tropical features so there maybe some wind and rain on the western side but the eastern side has more the excitement like it usually the case when the storm goes from tropical to extra-tropical.

Actually, the right side of a hurricane usually has the most excitement, even when it's purely tropical and deep in the Caribbean. The asymmetry is a little greater with transitioning, high-latitude storms, however.

By the way, there isn't just a "chance" this will be losing tropical features if/when it hits Lon Island-- that is guaranteed. No cyclone up on LI has ever been a pure-tropical specimen. They're always in the process of transition at this latitude.

[Thunderdude]

Pure tropical systems are MUCH better, but we rarely get them here

Most of the time they are either beginning lose its tropical features or they are more hybrid systems most of the time. I though Bob may of been the recent most tropical system the area has experience.

[A-L-E-X]

Actually, the right side of a hurricane usually has the most excitement, even when it's purely tropical and deep in the Caribbean. The asymmetry is a little greater with transitioning, high-latitude storms, however.

By the way, there isn't just a "chance" this will be losing tropical features if/when it hits Lon Island-- that is guaranteed. No cyclone up on LI has ever been a pure-tropical specimen. They're always in the process of transition at this latitude.

Except for maybe Carol

and maybe 1635 too-- if anyone could come up with data from that lol.

[Rjay]

It can be argued that at some poiint the E trend is bound to stop. Certain models trended W tonight.

Speak for yourself.

Name more than one model that trended west tn

[Thunderdude]

Actually, the right side of a hurricane usually has the most excitement, even when it's purely tropical and deep in the Caribbean. The asymmetry is a little greater with transitioning, high-latitude storms, however.

By the way, there isn't just a "chance" this will be losing tropical features if/when it hits Lon Island-- that is guaranteed. No cyclone up on LI has ever been a pure-tropical specimen. They're always in the process of transition at this latitude.

Very true but that is why being on the right side of the storm will be more excitement when it gets to our latitude. I was really to say that the last 3 so called "tropical" systems that impacting our area (Floyd, Charley, and Hanna) were basically either lost most of its tropical features or was an extra-tropical hybrid system.

[Thunderdude]

Except for maybe Carol

and maybe 1635 too-- if anyone could come up with data from that lol.

I don't think we will see another Carols again or least not for another 200-300 years.

[HurricaneJosh]

Name more than one model that trended west tn

The GFDL and HWRF.

I don't know what "tn" means.

[Rjay]

It means tonight! And the GFDL trended east at 0z...anyway...only the HWRF trended west...

[Dunkman]

UKMET trended west through 72h...ended up in approx the same place though because of a more eastward movement after the turn.

12z 72h

00z 60h

[A-L-E-X]

The GFDL and HWRF.

I don't know what "tn" means.

It looked like the abbreviation for Tennessee at first, but I think he meant "tonight." I hate these internet/texting abbreviations/acronyms. Cant people type normally anymore?

[HurricaneJosh]

It means tonight! And the GFDL trended east at 0z...anyway...only the HWRF trended west...

Is it too much trouble to write complete words?

I was under the impression the GFDL nudged W a little.

See above Re: UKMET.

[HurricaneJosh]

Anyhoo, the 06Z dynamical models royally suck. More E E E. Ugh:

[A-L-E-X]

Josh, which one of those is usually the most accurate? Also, which one is the average or consensus of the rest?

[HurricaneJosh]

Josh, which one of those is usually the most accurate? Also, which one is the average or consensus of the rest?

I'm definitely not the one to ask. Model accuracy and bias is a whole area of specialty, and it's not mine.

[ORH_wxman]

Josh, which one of those is usually the most accurate? Also, which one is the average or consensus of the rest?

They all have huge track errors at this time range. So its probably not too important to look at the individual results...but the trend is likely more important. The E trend is not good for getting a landfalling hurricane in NE, however, the timeframe we are speaking of is still so far out on these things. If I saw that plot at 48 hours out, I'd probably vomit for the chances of a NE landfall (given the 48 prog is almost always too far west at this latitude), but given its still 4-5 days out, its not as worrisome...but still concerning nonetheless.

[Rtd208]

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't this off of the 00z data? Would probably be why its shows the east shift.

Anyhoo, the 06Z dynamical models royally suck. More E E E. Ugh:

[HurricaneJosh]

I want to wake up tomorrow and see a dramatic W shift in all the models.

Then it will be like this was just a bad dream.

[phil882]

For those that like loops... here is the outer banks hit

[Dark Energy]

I wouldnt really worry about this storm right now. Seriously, it was forecast by NHC to be going over the DR a few day ago and it went right. At the same time, the extended forecast had it over FL in the long range. Look at how far it is to the right of FL now? This thing is trending right and I see no reason why that trend wont cont as it moves N twds our area (NYC). The right front quad is where the action is, I see MAYBE only E LI getting into that action, otherwise, just some heavy rain for a 6 hr period, then poof it's gone. Typical trend to the E. I recall when I was forecasting Charlie when I worked at NBC4 back in the day as a wx producer and all the models had it hitting the area. We had a tropical storm warning for the city and we ran crawls on the TV all for nothing. If the models have any kind of E trend...it is death. U want a due N trend, and that is not the deal here. I know the standard error in the NHC track at 5 days is some 250 miles, and that will be in play here. I see this sucker trending E with time so it's a glancing blow to the area, heavy rain yea, but not much else. Just my 2 cents.

[winterwx21]

They all have huge track errors at this time range. So its probably not too important to look at the individual results...but the trend is likely more important. The E trend is not good for getting a landfalling hurricane in NE, however, the timeframe we are speaking of is still so far out on these things. If I saw that plot at 48 hours out, I'd probably vomit for the chances of a NE landfall (given the 48 prog is almost always too far west at this latitude), but given its still 4-5 days out, its not as worrisome...but still concerning nonetheless.

Definitely concerning that there has been an east trend for days. Early on, this looked like a Florida threat. Then Georgia. Then Carolinas. If the models are now showing this as a Long Island threat, I would bet on it going well east of LI. Hard to fight the trend here. I'd love to experience a hurricane, but it doesn't look like a good chance to me.

[HurricaneJosh]

Awesome, loop-- thanks, Phill.

It's splitting hairs, but that run has the center missing NC by a hair-- and the only place getting hurricane winds is maybe Buxton.