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Hurricane Irene Model and Forecast Discussion


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Te meteorological profession will take another big hit I am afraid- we may not get down as low in the public's eyes as politicians but I can just hear it now "ahhh, they never get anything right"...

It's good to be humbled sometimes though. I dont know if you saw this, but people were talking about perfecting hurricane tracking and how we would know exact tracks weeks in advance. Chaos and random processes (among other basic physical factors) will prevent that from ever being possible. It's actually a good thing that there will always be a bit of uncertainty-- it keeps people on their toes and keeps them from becoming complacent :)

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Te meteorological profession will take another big hit I am afraid- we may not get down as low in the public's eyes as politicians but I can just hear it now "ahhh, they never get anything right"...

My sister said what you just said until I reminded her that if this were 10-20 years ago, there would have been mandatory evacuations for Florida by now. Then she said "Oh yea..."

Oh and BTW-where she works it takes about 2 days to put up hurricane shutters which comes out to hundreds of hours of OT. So, she actually saved money at work by the NHC having better models to go by.

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Te meteorological profession will take another big hit I am afraid- we may not get down as low in the public's eyes as politicians but I can just hear it now "ahhh, they never get anything right"...

I guess its important to note that no hurricane watches have been issued yet for the East Coast, so no failure from a government standpoint as of yet even if it were to completely miss.

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I guess its important to note that no hurricane watches have been issued yet for the East Coast, so no failure from a government standpoint as of yet even if it were to completely miss.

Agreed. I don't see this as an NHC or official-forecast bust. I see it more as an unofficial bust for all of us in this discussion forum who had such big expectations, and of course a bust for certain models.

But, wait-- verification of a bust is still five days away. It's absurd for any of us to call a bust yet. Let's just see.

Speaking of, where's that 00Z Euro?

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I love how the word "bust" is being freely thrown around tonight, how can something be considered a bust that hasn't even happened yet? Or better yet considering this a bust in the making just because a few forecast models are showing an offshore track with Irene still 4 days away from possibly beginning to impact the US east coast.

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Agreed. I don't see this as an NHC or official-forecast bust. I see it more as an unofficial bust for all of us in this discussion forum who had such big expectations, and of course a bust for certain models.

But, wait-- verification of a bust is still five days away. It's absurd for any of us to call a bust yet. Let's just see.

Speaking of, where's that 00Z Euro?

Talking about it in chat tonight... seems like it might be slightly NW of 12z... good trends for those who like east coast landfalls.

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My sister said what you just said until I reminded her that if this were 10-20 years ago, there would have been mandatory evacuations for Florida by now. Then she said "Oh yea..."

Oh and BTW-where she works it takes about 2 days to put up hurricane shutters which comes out to hundreds of hours of OT. So, she actually saved money at work by the NHC having better models to go by.

andrew, charlie... there were no mandatory evacs in fl for either . after those , people started to leave on there own and hope it was for naught. People don't want their weather guys to stand up there and pukethe latest NHC disscusion at them, we read those for ourselves. we want good educated guesses, peoplel who can read the maps and look at the models then stand at the green screen and explain to us whats what. until they get that, people will be complacent, or like me, be a weather nerd and try to learn enough to keep our famlies safe. I lived in Fl. for andrew, I'm a old nurse, I helped then, with charlie and with the season from hell. Fl. is full of weather nerds because of Andrew and there was one guy at a TV station in Miami that got it right, and fought to stay on air all night, So no, this will not make weather guys redundant, all they can do is try, we get it, we also learn pretty fast who to listen to. myself, I listen to Joe, and accuweather. I hate that joe left there, but whatever, I come on the forums, and compare to what NHC is saying, and trying to say between the lines, It's better than what I used to do. watch our local weather in Ft Myers Fl. listen to him tell us to get our kits ready, but no evac , and check to see if his mother in law is packing her car to go. she lived down the street. If she left, we all did. Now that's preety sad I'd say.

now, I'm in Hilton Head SC. These people talk about the history of no storm in 75 yrs. laugh at the weather and change the channel. These rich folks are delutional and pay absolutley no attention at all, just laugh it off. very sad.they'll have to have a storm slap them before they get it I guess. to bad.

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The 00Z Euro track is very Carol-esque: landfall on E Long Island, and then into the CT/RI border area from there.

It looks to me like a big miss in terms of NC. Others say it brushes. I could have read it wrong.

It almost seems like there's some kind of consensus developing of a landfall between Islip and Montauk as a high end cat 1 or low end cat 2.

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It almost seems like there's some kind of consensus developing of a landfall between Islip and Montauk as a high end cat 1 or low end cat 2.

If this case was to happen my area would be damaged badly and LI would be a disaster but this is still 5 days out so I won't get excited yet.

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Kinda. Except the d*mn GFS.

GGEM has even a further east solution as well. I do agree that the GFS has its SE bias on storm systems but I still have feeling based on history this will make an Eastern trend. At the same time we don't want something too crazy to come up here.

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GGEM has even a further east solution as well. I do agree that the GFS has its SE bias on storm systems but I still have feeling based on history this will make an Eastern trend.

It can be argued that at some poiint the E trend is bound to stop. Certain models trended W tonight.

At the same time we don't want something too crazy to come up here.

Speak for yourself. :)

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Actually I hope it goes over NJ than the northeast part will have more interesting weather with heavy rain/strong winds and possibly a tornado threat as well if this solution was to pan out but I doubt that.

I'm confused. You do want the crazy wx or you don't? :lol:

P.S. The maps Phil posted aren't that scary. They show at best Cat-1 wind raking the E End of LI-- hardly a catastrophe.

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Actually I hope it goes over NJ than the northeast part will have more interesting weather with heavy rain/strong winds and possibly a tornado threat as well if this solution was to pan out but I doubt that.

Idk, personally I've found the western side more interesting because of the very heavy rain. The eastern side has a lot of wind yes, but it's just one big dry slot.

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It can be argued that at some poiint the E trend is bound to stop. Certain models trended W tonight.

Speak for yourself. :)

GGEM and GFS have trended significantly east even though the GFS does usually have it's SE bias like it does in the winter this far out I am still basing on what happen with Edward in 1996 and last year with Earl. The only favor is that there is no cold front that would steer the storm out to sea but other factors could come to play. I remember there was no trough or front with the case with Edward.

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Idk, personally I've found the western side more interesting because of the very heavy rain. The eastern side has a lot of wind yes, but it's just one big dry slot.

Depends. Not if it's a good cyclone. If it's a falling-apart piece of crap, then yes, you're right.

P.S. You see heavy rain all the time, whereas you never see hurricane winds-- so why would you be so keen to just see something you see all the time anyway?

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