Hurricane Irene Model and Forecast Discussion

[am19psu]

When does the 12Z Euro come in?

It starts around 1:50 et and ends around 2:50.

[TUweathermanDD]

Could be a serious problem if it verified.

[Paweatherguy1]

Could be a serious problem if it verified.

Yeah, I saw that and though disaster...of course, the wind speeds are more than likely overdone as the GFDL usually does, but a Cat 2 hurricane possibly riding up the Chesapeake Bay and over the Delmarva...Norfolk, Richmond, DC, Baltimore, Philly, and even NYC could be seeing at least Hurricane force wind gusts, with possibly hurricane conditions in DC, Norfolk, and Baltimore, as well as Dover, and a TON of rain....

Very bad if this verifies.

[Cheeznado]

Euro at 54, a small hair father NE. 12Z HWRF, 931 mb landfall 06Z Sunday Morehead city

[Lookout]

Folks, please don't post about the earthquake in this thread and keep this thread on topic. Your posts about it will be deleted.

[Cheeznado]

Euro has shifted east, similar to GFS (maybe a tad slower) at 96 hours. Folks, we have consensus, this is likely headed for extreme eastern NC for first landfall

[Cheeznado]

18Z Sunday 960mb mouth of the Chesapeake- looks to making a beeline for NYC...

[HurricaneJosh]

Euro has shifted east, similar to GFS (maybe a tad slower) at 96 hours. Folks, we have consensus, this is likely headed for extreme eastern NC for first landfall

Yeah, the models have really converged over the last couple of runs, with even the outliers coming in to the consensus. OBX or fishing just offshore is hard to argue with at this point.

[Cheeznado]

Yeah, the models have really converged over the last couple of runs, with even the outliers coming in to the consensus. OBX or fishing just offshore is hard to argue with at this point.

After that it gets interesting, most guidance suggests that the entire coast gets raked up to either eastern New England or NYC/Long Island. A complete fish is looking less and less likely, This will be a big ratings grabber for TWC.....

[MotoWeatherman]

Euro has shifted east, similar to GFS (maybe a tad slower) at 96 hours. Folks, we have consensus, this is likely headed for extreme eastern NC for first landfall

What's interesting is the GFS shifted slower and further west in the early hours of the run and then further east in the later hours which is a more erratic track to predict than the smoother path of previous runs. The models may be getting a better handle on the shortwaves that will play a factor and I expect more changes in the coming runs.

[gkrangers]

What's interesting is the GFS shifted slower and further west in the early hours of the run and then further east in the later hours which is a more erratic track to predict than the smoother path of previous runs. The models may be getting a better handle on the shortwaves that will play a factor and I expect more changes in the coming runs.

It sounds like we should expect a few changes in direction given the multiple shortwaves involved?

[phil882]

Yeah, the models have really converged over the last couple of runs, with even the outliers coming in to the consensus. OBX or fishing just offshore is hard to argue with at this point.

Yep... looks like I'll have to make another shift rightward (ugh) in my next forecast map. Its hard to argue with such a tightly clustered consensus at this point.

Still though, I still would say its very unlikely this misses the entire US with such an amplified ridge to the west.

[baroclinic_instability]

Plymouth state must be getting hammered...I am having trouble with new ECMWF plots.

[WhiteoutWX]

What's interesting is the GFS shifted slower and further west in the early hours of the run and then further east in the later hours which is a more erratic track to predict than the smoother path of previous runs. The models may be getting a better handle on the shortwaves that will play a factor and I expect more changes in the coming runs.

Ya this can definitely still change. Taking into account the coastlines shape, even a very small shift either way would have a huge difference on landfall location. This is still days away from landfall I dont think any model will get it 100% right from this range. I do admit though the range of solutions has converged considerably the past 24 hours.

[Dunkman]

After that it gets interesting, most guidance suggests that the entire coast gets raked up to either eastern New England or NYC/Long Island. A complete fish is looking less and less likely, This will be a big ratings grabber for TWC.....

The FSU page has 113 kts. and 931mb at the 120h position over the Delmarva Peninsula.

[MotoWeatherman]

It sounds like we should expect a few changes in direction given the multiple shortwaves involved?

I think so. The GFS shifted SW about 70-80 miles or south with the storm location off the FL coast in the early hours of the run and then curves Irene sharper to almost miss the NC coast. That's a wilder track than previous runs and the GFS is likely starting to get a better handle on at least the first shortwave. With the multiple shortwaves involved and only a small weakness between the ridge over TX and out in the Atlantic I don't think this track is nailed down yet.

Ya this can definitely still change. Taking into account the coastlines shape, even a very small shift either way would have a huge difference on landfall location. This is still days away from landfall I dont think any model will get it 100% right from this range. I do admit though the range of solutions has converged considerably the past 24 hours.

If this were a winter time snowstorm, we would all be beating the drum that it's still 4 days away and many things can and likely will change. Although this pattern is not nearly as complicated there are still a few players that factor into the final result.

[Cheeznado]

If there is a model shift, I expect it would be east not west, I have a hard time believing that Irene would come in farther west than Wilmington and that is a long shot IMO. There is a better chance of an eastern NC miss and then an eastern New England hit. I still think a complete miss is unlikely, but not totally out of the question.

[wxsmwhrms]

Yep... looks like I'll have to make another shift rightward (ugh) in my next forecast map. Its hard to argue with such a tightly clustered consensus at this point.

Still though, I still would say its very unlikely this misses the entire US with such an amplified ridge to the west.

Agreed completely. I know the models were way off on their forecasts from several days ago, but a lot of that had to do with not getting the location of genesis correct or picking up on how deep the system got early on. Now that we have a well developed system and a pretty straightforward synoptic setup, it is hard for me to imagine the models being so far off that this totally misses everything to the right, especially given that the forecast seems to agree well with the mean synoptics of amplified ridges to the west and east. Not saying that there won't still be some adjustments or surprises - but it seems like we are narrowing down toward an E NC to SNE type of impact. The EC would have be 10 degrees too far west on its day 4-7 forecast for this to be a complete fish - not impossible, obviously (what is?) but unlikely.

[HKY_WX]

Kinda noteworthy the euro never turns Irene easterly until after 132hours. From 72 hours to 120 hours is basically a NNW-N trek.

[meteorjosh]

Kinda noteworthy the euro never turns Irene easterly until after 132hours. From 72 hours to 120 hours is basically a NNW trek.

I find that quite noteworthy as well, considering the GFS also bends back to the north during that time frame rather than pulling Irene out past Nantucket.

[Jmister]

As was pointed out in another thread, the EURO is available on Wundermap: http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

Here is the 12z run at hour 129, showing a 952mb storm over southern NJ at the time. That would be quite historic.

[MarkSC]

Given the weird NE, then N or NNW track, it wouldn't take much for the storm to miss the NE turn completely and just head N, especially if the models are just a hair off on the speed of Irene. Not saying that is going to happen, but I wouldn't be shocked to see a landfall further W than guidance--around the NC/SC border perhaps.

[patrick05]

in my humble (and amateur) opinion, i've seen the Euro become aggressive (and kinda overdo) on intensity this year in the WPAC; not sure if it applies to here though as well..

[Jmister]

Excuse me, but there's no way this can be realistic. When was the last time a 952 made it up to SNJ?

I don't think it is realistic either, and as we have seen the EURO tends to over-intensify storms. I do think you can take away ideas about the track and rainfall rates. Pressure may be 20mb higher though.

[free_man]

Anyone have 2m wind images from the 12z Euro?

[Thunderdude]

Tropical Systems tend to behave on their own. Remember Earl back in 1996 where we thought it will clip Eastern LI but instead missed the East Coast completely and only Eastern New England felt some effects from it. There was some Atlantic ridge I could remember. I won't be surprise this is the same case except it could brush the Carolines then make the turn to N to NE. I do see the possibility of it clipping Eastern LI then hitting Cape as tropical storm become extra-tropical where rain and some wind for Eastern LI and New England. Areas of the city and Coastal NJ will see lighter amounts of rain where closer to the storm could get into the heavier rains.

[negative-nao]

[Juliancolton]

Tropical Systems tend to behave on their own. Remember Earl back in 1996 where we thought it will clip Eastern LI but instead missed the East Coast completely and only Eastern New England felt some effects from it. There was some Atlantic ridge I could remember. I won't be surprise this is the same case except it could brush the Carolines then make the turn to N to NE. I do see the possibility of it clipping Eastern LI then hitting Cape as tropical storm become extra-tropical where rain and some wind for Eastern LI and New England. Areas of the city and Coastal NJ will see lighter amounts of rain where closer to the storm could get into the heavier rains.

In general, though, most mature TCs follow established and dominant steering patterns. I wouldn't put too much stock into the slim chance that the storm breaks out of the steering pattern and dives east, even though it's always possible.

[baroclinic_instability]

Totally curious, can someone inform me how/why wunderground is able to give out free ECMWF data? I am sure it was discussed earlier...just curious.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Totally curious, can someone inform me how/why wunderground is able to give out free ECMWF data? I am sure it was discussed earlier...just curious.

What's the ECMWF rule... as long as the third party distributor doesn't make money off of it, right? I suppose as long as wunderground keeps it free for anyone to view, it is okay for them to distribute.