TalcottWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFS may up the similar to 6z despite a ne start early on in run.. that ridge isnt probably going to let irene travel too far east after hr42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 She's indeed farther NW when compared to the 00z GFS run at hour 54 on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 She is sitting at the mouth of the bay at 66hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFS from 66 to 84 has her crawling along the coast making a second landfall around NYC and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Forgot about my Buoy data page! I've got too many damn pages! http://www.daculawea...om/buoy_new.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 A brush along Hattaras and then onto LI as a strong 970 Cat One. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Don't forget about wundermaps. You can use it to get a much closer view of the model data: http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This buoy off of Cape Canaveral and and a CMAN in the Bahamas seem to be providing good data right now and they're both pretty much in the path of Irene. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010&unit=E http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1&unit=E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NoGaps to the left....splits NJ, goes just west of NYC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 CMC is east again, but not as far as last night's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 5:34 PM, Cheeznado said: CMC is east again, but not as far as last night's run I thought it looked a touch west, but it's hard to tell on the maps I have, I would imagine your correct... I see what you mean, it's east of GFS and Euro but it's west of 0z CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 5:45 PM, Thunder81 said: Did the 12z Euro model come out yet? It starts in 5 minutes. Rest assured, if no one has posted about it yet, it hasn't come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 5:41 PM, LMolineuxLM1 said: Which is where? ACY to ISP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I am having trouble accessing the 12z GFS ensembles for whatever reason, maybe someone could tip off where the OP run is in relation to the Ensemble spread? I'm curious as to why the ECMWF and it's ensembles are so much further west after Landfall than the GFS and what to expect...obvoiously waiting for 12z ECMWF run but it would be a huge dillemna if the 12z stands pat. I doubt it will but we'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Euro very similar but faster, Landfall east of Morehead City at 54. HWRF shifted a fair bit east, GFDL similar to previous but faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12Z EC @48hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Euro makes landfall at Cape Lookout...moves to Elizabeth City, now out E of Assateague @ 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 hr 72 center right over the mouth of the ches. bay bridge tunnel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12Z EC @ 72hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 2nd landfall @ Cape May hr 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 A little shocked the Euro went that far east at 72. Is the shortwave stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 To the west to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 What are those 2 cloud patterns spinning to the right of irene? was this forecasted ? wildcard ? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 11:23 PM, negative-nao said: What are those 2 cloud patterns spinning to the right of irene? was this forecasted ? wildcard ? http://www.ssd.noaa....l/flash-rb.html Remnants of invest 98L. They were fully factored into the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Eyewall is recovering...we are halfway there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 18z NAM sim radar at 24 hrs has eye ringed with very strong convection -- http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F25%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=024&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 11:20 PM, yoda said: To the west to the west yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 11:23 PM, negative-nao said: What are those 2 cloud patterns spinning to the right of irene? was this forecasted ? wildcard ? http://www.ssd.noaa....l/flash-rb.html Yes the GGEM made that into a legitimate tropical sytem a little while back. It is also lemond by NHC. TTo small to really be a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Major differences between the 18Z GFDL and HWRF- GFDL hits near Morehead city then up to over eastern PA, HWRF way way east, misses Hatteras completely, landfall Block Island. This one is still not set in stone.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 12:15 AM, Cheeznado said: Major differences between the 18Z GFDL and HWRF- GFDL hits near Morehead city then up to over eastern PA, HWRF way way east, misses Hatteras completely, landfall Block Island. This one is still not set in stone.... Can you say a little about the relative performance of the HWRF compared to the globals? My sense is that the HWRF has been all over the place. Does its performance improve closer to the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.