Scott747 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 For analysis and graphics of future model runs for Hurricane Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 18z GFS - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 0z guidance based on 18z output should be coming out soon - 18z guidance for reference - With latest NHC track - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 lots-o spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Rather irritating to have such spread when more data have been ingested and the future should be presumably clearer. That having been said, most the right-leaning plots are the crap models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Rather irritating to have such spread when more data have been ingested and the future should be presumably clearer. That having been said, most the right-leaning plots are the crap models. I doubt the new data is getting into the early cycle runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Rather irritating to have such spread when more data have been ingested and the future should be presumably clearer. That having been said, most the right-leaning plots are the crap models. The tropical models on that map are still based on the 18z GFS, which I presume did not ingest the new data. So if I understand it correctly, the next batch of tropical model runs should better reflect the new data, along with the 00z global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I doubt the new data is getting into the early cycle runs. The 00z tropical models on that map are still based on the 18z GFS, which I presume did not ingest the new data. So if I understand it correctly, the 06z tropical models should better reflect the new data, along with the 00z global models. Cool, thanks. As you can see, model mechanics is not my forte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 18z GEFS ensemble mean and individual members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Rather irritating to have such spread when more data have been ingested and the future should be presumably clearer. That having been said, most the right-leaning plots are the crap models. 00z early cycles just corrects 18z late cycle for initial position. It's not a new 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 00z early cycles just corrects 18z late cycle for initial position. It's not a new 00z run. Yep-- I just realized. As you can see, I'm not up on how the model mechanics. My bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 the nam's out to 78 on ncep.. for those who like that sort of thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 the nam's out to 78 on ncep.. for those who like that sort of thing nice initialization over Hispaniola...what a terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 nice initialization over Hispaniola...what a terrible model. yes, tho i'd maybe use it if the storm ends up nearing my backyard some day. i liked how close it was to miami though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 nice initialization over Hispaniola...what a terrible model. The pressure/ Heights are off too.. 10dm at 850 and 700mb compared to Recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Snippet from the latest disco - OF NOTE...SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE FLIGHTS FROM THE NOAA G-IV AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE C-130 AIRCRAFT PROVIDED NUMEROUS DROPSONDES FOR ASSIMILATION INTO THE 0000 UTC MODEL CYCLE. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE THE ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND AND UPSTREAM OF IRENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 18z GEFS ensemble mean and individual members Hmm, the mean basically takes this right over my house. Interesting even though it would probably be down to Cat 1 and transitioning to extra-tropical. Sorry for the IMBY post. It will be very interesting to see what the 00z Models say especially with the extra data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 gfs ensembles are not good to use for the tropics...they are of too low resolution to accurately represent depth and intensity of TCs. Because of this, the low-level steering flow can have too much of an effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Additional info on data for the 0z GFS run - http://www.weather.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=adm&node=kwno SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0315Z TUE AUG 23 2011 THE 00Z GFS MODEL IS RUNNING ON TIME. RAWINSONDE COVERAGE FOR MODEL DATA ASSIMILATION WAS EXCELLENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND INCLUDED 36 DROPSONDES FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 gfs initialized with a stronger ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 900% of Normal. 36 sondes and 10 RECCO code inputs: Biggest input of data dropsonde wise since Emily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Well, I'm filled with anticipation. I'm going to remove sharp objects from the house just in case the GFS shows a fish after ingesting all these new data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 gfs initialized with a stronger ridge. Also has the storm int over DM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Also has the storm int over DM. meh...I looked a little closer at that. Could be a graphics issue or a mountain issue. The 500mb vort and the 850mb low are both north of the island in the correct place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Comparing the 18z 06 hr and the 00z 0 hour. Nothing seems too off, The one thing that does stand out is that the ridge over NM is bigger and now extends well into Texas. Maybe the flow is a bit faster coming into the PAC NW, only by 5-10 kts though. EDIT: Looking at H3 the flow coming into the PAC NW is definitely faster, by 10-15 kts offshore in the jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Thru 30 00z GFS on the exact same position as the 18z. Ridging Positioned further west over N america, Stronger Bermuda high, and a weaker 2nd shortwave. Edit: Looks a bit more aimplified this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Not much change (if any at all) through hr42 with the track vs. 18z. The 588dm "escape hole" seems a bit bigger though when comparing the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 New GFS at is farther right and the northern stream trough is deeper....do I smell fish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 About 300 miles east of MIA at 60 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical060.gif Def a bit NE of the position on the 18z GFS at 66 hrs when you compare the 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Nice to see the trough digging deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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