Dsnowx53 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wow, we look to be on the right-front quadrant on the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Off the new free Euro maps of wunderground. Nice! Hour 135 has the center right on top of NYC. The real rain stays west of NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Lol the Euro pressures are beyond absurd. Wind but no rain on the east side, rain but no wind on the west side. I'd pass on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wunderground euro wind forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wunderground euro wind forecast: Pretty much what's left of the eyewall comes overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 just a word to the wise, tropical systems, especially while weakening tend to be "top heavy" in terms of steady rain. Meaning most of the rain falls before the eye passes by. So it would be better to look a few frames ahead to see what its doing while the eye is down by the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wunderground euro wind forecast: That's pretty crazy... Basically a tropical storm type system in the NYC area.. With full folliage - that can be pretty significant.. Also- as others have been saying- are these winds perhaps not realistic b/c this is a global model? Could the winds actually be worse?? jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 there would be a nice squall line I am sure to the right of the landfall. All would not be lost with that setup on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Does anyone know what the pressure at ISP when Gloria came ashore?? Was it below 970? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 nobody should be taking this verbatim, but as I said before, see that stripe of Hurricane force winds off the NE NJ coast? That's surving to push a ton of water into NY harbor. Quite the storm surge from this angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 That Euro Rain Map- pretty much matches what happened w/ gloria in 1985... Gloria tracked about 75 miles east of what the EURO depicts.. Here is the rain map from gloria.. Not much fell on Long Island.. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gloria_rainfall.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The factors considering wind: 1) SST's are a little lower, therefore a little less momentum transfer to the surface. 2) Long Island being surrounded by water has higher than usual winds because there is less friction over the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It's still too early to hammer down the exact details, that will come on Friday most likely, I'm tired of waiting already lol Anyway, FWIW both the GHM and HWRF have major hurricanes just south of the Delmarva at the end of there runs GHM hr 126 HWRF hr126, slower and weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Gloria's pressure at its Long Island landfall was 961 mb. Does anyone know what the pressure at ISP when Gloria came ashore?? Was it below 970? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 so basically this model depiction is somewhat like Gloria's inpact, but for NYC.... From what I understand Gloria was bad from Eastern Nassau County on east.... If this storm comes in w/ similar pressure to the west of where Gloria came in.. NYC/Western LI will be pounded... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It would depend on when it makes landfall. If further south in the chesapeake bay area it likely would have weakened considerably. If it manages to hug the coast and somehow make a direct hit on NYC then it would be a different story but that would be like a hole in one shot. so basically this model depiction is somewhat like Gloria's inpact, but for NYC.... From what I understand Gloria was bad from Eastern Nassau County on east.... If this storm comes in w/ similar pressure to the west of where Gloria came in.. NYC/Western LI will be pounded... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 so basically this model depiction is somewhat like Gloria's inpact, but for NYC.... From what I understand Gloria was bad from Eastern Nassau County on east.... If this storm comes in w/ similar pressure to the west of where Gloria came in.. NYC/Western LI will be pounded... I was 1 when gloria hit. my family was living in melville, western suffolk. We lost half our trees in the storm...was pretty bad. Im pretty sure the eye passed right over western suffolk...my dad claims the eye came overhead and he went outside...then the storm came back with a vengeance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 18z early guidance dynamic models. Extremely tightly clustered in eastern NC and NNE, into NYC/LI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 18z early guidance dynamic models. Extremely tightly clustered in eastern NC and NNE, into NYC/LI: It looks like they all are coming around to bringing her up the coast as opposed to out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I was 8 years old during Hurricane Gloria- and I remember it vividly.. I was also in Western Suffolk County - Dix Hills.. We lost about 5-6 very large trees.. The wind was howling by 6-7 in the morning and I remember my mother telling us that there was no way we were going to school.. In fact we all stayed home that day for good reason.. By mid morning- the storm was pretty bad.. We must have had winds close to 80mph at some point.. Up and down our street power lines were down and trees littered the streets for as far as the eye could see.. In fact the road was pretty much impassable.. We lost electric for 6-7 days.. As for the EYE.. Everyone remembers this part of the storm.. It got sunny by early/mid afternoon and basically- the storm was over.. The southwest eyewall had collapsed at that point.. The storm was moving very fast... The clean up was crazy.. It took a long time.. What I remember most was the smell..... From all the fallen folliage, the smell is something i'll never forget.. It really was surreal.. While the whole thing was cool as a kid, i don't think i want to experience this again.. Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I remember Gloria. I was 9 years old. I remember playing ball on my street and I live on a bit of a hill.. I remember the wind being so strong that the ball got past me and was rolling down hill.. the wind was going the opposite direction.. the ball literally stopped and started rolling uphill.. I don't know why I remember that, but I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
middlesea Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I was in 7th grade with Gloria...lived in Selden at the time. Had no power for 7 days...no school for a week...I was excited about a hurricane until it hit...then it scared the wits out of me when a 60ft tall tree fell on our car. Wires and trees and debris everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 12Z UKMET is a Norfolk -- Cape Cod Canal track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 12Z UKMET is a Norfolk -- Cape Cod Canal track. it was west yesterday, interesting that it has veered away from its cousin the Euro. I like the ukie as a tropical model but after last winter I don't trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 They make it sound like NYC never sees Hurricanes, "Oh it's been 75 years, NYC is overdue, blah blah blah", then I look up these storms and they're fairly significant ones. I never knew Gloria made landfall in Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Talking about a direct hit on NYC with hurricane force winds... They make it sound like NYC never sees Hurricanes, "Oh it's been 75 years, NYC is overdue, blah blah blah", then I look up these storms and they're fairly significant ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Excellent discussion from Mt. Holly .HYDROLOGY... THE FLOW REMAINS HIGH ON THE MILLSTONE RIVER...ESPECIALLY GRIGGSTOWN AND AN RVS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED FOR THIS POINT AT ABOUT 245 PM FOR THE RECEDING MILLSTONE. AREAL FLOOD WARNING CANCELLED FOR THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE METEDECONK RIVER AT LAKEWOOD. THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD THE CONVECTION WILL BE THURSDAY...AND FOR NOW IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE INVOLVED. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HEAVY RAIN IS BECOMING A BETTER BET...BUT THE POSITION OF THE HEAVY RAIN...AND TO A DEGREE ITS TIMING...ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN COULD AFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS...AND THE INTERACTION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...SINCE ANY HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WOULD BE WELL IN ADVANCE OF IRENE. THERE ARE TWO BASIC MODEL CAMPS CONCERNING THE TRACK OF IRENE...WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD IN BETWEEN. FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN LOOMS...BUT THIS IS TRACK DEPENDENT. THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND WE WILL WAIT TOO SEE HOW THE TRACK OF IRENE AFFECTS THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z/23 NAEFS CONTS TO HAVE THE BACK EDGE OF THE 2 INCH EVENT FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST WITH A PROB OF OCCURRENCE AROUND 50 PCT. THIS DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY FROM THE 06Z/23 GEFS WHICH HAS A RANGE OF QPF OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...MOST OF THE THE WEEKEND...AS FOLLOWS PHL MEAN 2.13 MAX 6.88 MIN 0.31 ABE MEAN 2.14 MAX 6.56 MIN 0.37 THE 09Z/21 SREF JUST IN AND WHICH ENDS 00Z/27 HAS BOTH A MEAN AND MEDIAN FOR PHL OF 0.40 A MAX 1.16 AND A MIN 0.01. YOU`VE SEEN THE 12Z/23 5 DAY HPC QPF ENDING 12Z SUNDAY WHICH HAS 1.8 INCHES NEAR HIGH POINT NJ AND I THINK THATS GOING TO BE A GOOD IDEA OF WHATS AHEAD. THIS INCORPORATES THURSDAYS EVENT. PRE: I THINK EVEN WITH THE GFS EAST AS PER ITS 06Z RUN...IT HAS WHAT I THINK IS A NOTABLE BANDING SIGNAL WELL NW OF THE SFC LOW /HIGH KI) AND WHAT I THINK IS A PRETTY STRONG PRE SIGNAL AS AN UPPER LVL JET STRENGTHENS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND 700/850 DEWPOINTS HAVE A SEPARATE AXIS LIFTING NWD THRU OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. ALSO...WHILE THE GFS MAY BE TOO INTENSE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VERY STRONG PRES RISES JUST AFTER OF WHATEVER MOVES N OR NE AND THAT COULD MEANS SOME STRONG GUSTY NW FLOW TRANSFER. THIS PER HIGH WIND COMPOSITES FROM BOX. SST WHEN I CHECKED YDY ALONG OUR E COAST HAD A POSITIVE ANOMALY OF ROUGHLY A DEG. ALSO...ECMWF AXIS OF QPF IS FAR WEST OF ALL OTHER MODELS...THE 00Z/23 EC MEAN IS A BIT FURTHER E THAN THE OP. BOTTOM LINE... UNTIL ALL MODELS SHIFT EASTWARD...WE NEED TO CONTINUE CONSIDERATION OF AT LEAST A LARGE SCALE RAIN EVENT WITH SQUALLY WINDS... HIGH SEAS AND TIDAL FLOODING/DANGEROUS RIPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I just booked a room in Atlantic City this weekend, bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'd take the current track. Wind > Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Talking about a direct hit on NYC with hurricane force winds... I know, I always assumed it meant few storms have hit the region at hurricane strength, not a direct hit on NYC itself (which is close to impossible). Some of these storms have made landfall on NYC's doorstep yet they don't really count even though "NYC" was most likely heavily effected as well. Sorry I went a little O/T. Irene keeps looking better and better, I haven't payed this much attention to a hurricane since 2005 (& Earl). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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