ag3 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Better view of 12z GGEM off ewall. 1st Landfall off NE NC: 2nd landfall slices through LI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 im just getting caught up on this thread....while on my laptop during my lunch hour. This model you've been looking at poses a serious risk from NJ shore to LI to NE...Whomever said swing and a miss needs to learn how to read models. With that being said... Very concerned about how much water this thing does carry up the coast...it's going to have a few days to bomb out over the gulf stream before getting more north of NC... Last year with Earl, it brought beach erosion and some fun waves to manasquan inlet NJ...and it was party sunny with a humid breeze... With this setup, all of manasquan beach would be underwater and evacuated.... Still five days out, but that model paints a very disturbing picture for shore residents and one that should be watched closely outside of us who are weather geeks....I dont know what the local NY stations are doing as far as media hype....here in the Susquehanna Valley of PA we will probably escape a worst case scenario, but I'm going to be in Belmar NJ at mom's house this weekend, and she's starting to grow very concerned by what she's watching on the tv, and she doesn't know a thing about the weather. I just don't like the thought of a storm bombing to a cat 4 and having that surge follow it up the coast....let alone the outside chance of a hurricane force wind gust.... Excellent post, I think water would be the issue if the gfs track verified, what has me on edge for coastal residents is the very slow movement of Irene. This would allow long fetch east winds to pound the jersey shore well ahead of the system, much like a nor easter. Western long island sound would be inudated with water as east winds would not allow water to evacuate the western sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Better view of 12z GGEM off ewall. 1st Landfall off NE NC: 2nd landfall slices through LI: looks like the GFS ..oh boy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 One thing to note is the first trough to come through which picks up Irene to have her miss the SE coast exits and then she is allowed to keep coming North, not NE or NNE. However, if the second trough behind the first is stronger or quicker you get a totally different solution. The first trough is better sampled today, second, not so much. Pretty much still dealing with a 200 mile +/- swath this far north this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 looks like the GFS ..oh boy! Yeah, pretty close. A tad west of GFS, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 A couple of points about Gloria: 1) It hit at the end of September, much different than at the end of August. 2) At about this point in Gloria's lifespan, even though it never hit the Bahamian island chain, it was an incredibly powerful hurricane with I believe at that time one of the five lowest pressure readings ever recorded in the Atlantic, even though the winds were not Category Five. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 We are having an earthquake!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 We are having an earthquake!!!!! Same here. House just shook. Eastern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Same here. House just shook. Eastern PA The house, the chair I was in swayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Latest visible image shows outflow has been disturbed greatly on the nw and sw flank of the storm due to sw shear, as well as dry air being ingested into the core of the storm off dowsloping winds over Hispanola. However, with shear lessening and dm tonight I think Irene goes nuts. It looks like Irene is at a position where the mountains are most impeding the moisture inflow. As it gets to about 72.5-73W, the flow should be more parallel to the mountains, and the eyewall should close up on the southern flank. Then, it's game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 We are having an earthquake!!!!! Same here. House just shook. Eastern PA The house, the chair I was in swayed. First http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/24302-wow-did-you-feel-that/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Didn't feel it at 120th and Broadway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Euro caves to GFS. Earthquakes. Dogs sleeping with cats. Madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Euro caves to GFS. Earthquakes. Dogs sleeping with cats. Madness. Nice. Where does it have landfall and how strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Euro brings the storm inland into the delmarva and then right up into NYC but inland, not off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Nice. Where does it have landfall and how strong? Cheeznado says... 18Z Sunday 960mb mouth of the Chesapeake- looks to making a beeline for NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Cheeznado says... 18Z Sunday 960mb mouth of the Chesapeake- looks to making a beeline for NYC... it hasn't updated yet past 120, 927 near VA beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 hr 132 its over cnj hr 138 over albany 5-7 of rain for everyone on the 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 looks like a 931 over Philly on Monday, NYC gets pummeled by the eastern eyewall, THIS is probabably the worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 But that track would be the difference between 30-40 mph winds and strong tropical storm/weak hurricane force winds hr 132 its over cnj hr 138 over albany 5-7 of rain for everyone on the 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I would think the eye would have fallen apart or become very diffuse by the time it gets to NYC-especially with that inland track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I would think the eye would have fallen apart or become very diffuse by the time it gets to NYC-especially with that inland track.... its a big rain storm with strong breezes by then. We would be on the right side so could see thunderstorms with rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yeah but anyone on the eastern side would get the full brunt of whatever winds are left. Some of the gulf hurricanes have brought hurricane force winds well into the tennessee/ohio valley I would think the eye would have fallen apart or become very diffuse by the time it gets to NYC-especially with that inland track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Lol the Euro pressures are beyond absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Lol the Euro pressures are beyond absurd. And yet it still has the highest verification scores for tropical storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 But that track would be the difference between 30-40 mph winds and strong tropical storm/weak hurricane force winds Im at work so I don't have much time to analyst it. Looks to have more foward speed, but more land interaction vs the gfs. Would think winds would be the same or a bit less then the gfs. Take this fwiw, I have not look at more then the hr 132 and 138 surface maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 And yet it still has the highest verification scores for tropical storms. I know, it's just wild. Are the pressures baroclinically enhanced by this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Im at work so I don't have much time to analyst it. Looks to have more foward speed, but more land interaction bs the gfs. Would think winds would be the same or a bit less then the gfs. Take this fwiw, I have not look at more the the hr 132 and 138 surface maps Winds are garbage at global resolution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Excellent post alex, while the northern nj coast and western long island sound are so vulnerable to an east or ne wind, the nyc proper out east to long island are extremely vulnerable to a s or se wind, a scenario which takes irene north and stall it south of sne then heads wnw just sw of the nyc area is still on the table, any slight ridging to the ne has to be taken seriously even as unusual and unlikely as it maybe. Its not the wind or rain, its the water that makes nyc so vulnerable. Euro now shows something very close to this. This path would send a lot of water into NYC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Looking at the regional views, most of the rain falls west of the city on the euro. Maybe squall lines however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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