Quincy Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 NAM is much further NE from its' 6z and 0z counterparts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 everyone always says that the NAM is "useless" as a tropical model, I'm not sure how true that is, the system is much faster, by about 12 hours on the 12z NAM and looks weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I think the important thing to note here is the trend. If we keep trending east, it's not coming back. If the trending slows down and we see waffling for the next 24-48 hours, then I would get concerned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The hurricane looks horrible on the latest IR, the convection on the eastern side is taking a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 the southern 1/3 of the center of the system is interacting with Hispaniola at this time...may cap any strengthening for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 the GFS is substantially deeper with the trough coming across the Lakes on Friday night (10-15 dm lower heights). also, through 87hrs its a tad south and slower than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 since I am glancing at this on Storm Vista.. I'll just let you know it goes just east of the outerbanks Saturday evening.. but I am not going to even begin to throw in an analysis or an opinion of where it might ultimately go. These things are just so hard to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 A little SW of 6z GFS through hour 108. Just east of eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Hour 120. Big impact for our area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 swing and a miss to the east, misses even NC and the east trend continues at 123 hours it sits just off the south nj coast and is pounding the area with rain and winD. Its coming right into central LI. Not saying its right, but you are absolutely off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 not that I believe the GFS, but it would be a major impact, actually.. as much as it would have looked like a recurve with a HSE location, it goes right up the coast to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 hr 120 major hit coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 swing and a miss to the east, misses even NC and the east trend continues Seriously bro? Stop it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 hr 126, the entire area is being crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 swing and a miss to the east, misses even NC and the east trend continues Dude is there any time of the year where you don't do this? The GFS has a high impact event for us at 120 hours. The storm is just off the NJ shore. If anything it's closer than its previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Major slam NYC thru long island, would be devastating to coastal areas for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Dude is there any time of the year where you don't do this? The GFS has a high impact event for us at 120 hours. The storm is just off the NJ shore. If anything it's closer than its previous run. Its a direct hit from a 966 hurricane at hour 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 We'd be on the weak side of the storm though. Road trip to LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 hr 129, landfall just east of the city, sub 975 LP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Its a direct hit from a 966 hurricane at hour 126. low end cat 2 or high end cat 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 hr 141 its finaly pulling off into NE... but thats not before dumping 5-10" area wide with a swath of 10-15" from about ACY to SW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Dude is there any time of the year where you don't do this? The GFS has a high impact event for us at 120 hours. The storm is just off the NJ shore. If anything it's closer than its previous run. yes i spoke to early, im pretty shocked it didn't head NE after NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 hr 129, landfall just east of the city, sub 975 LP That's scary..over my house..anyway these days you can charge up cell phone without electric? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 yes i spoke to early, im pretty shocked it didn't head NE after NC Same. Figured Irene was going to be an after thought after 00z. Let's hope for waffling, and not just an east trend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 We'd be on the weak side of the storm though. Road trip to LI. It would still be one of the strongest storms of our lifetimes. Just imagine the amount of water that's going to build up over Manhattan, Long Island, and the Jersey Shore if a category 3 hurricane were to take 30 hours tracking up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 At some point, this is coming almost due north, and how far east it gets before that happens is going to make a huge difference. This has to be about as close to a worst case scenario as could happen realistically for this area. The only thing that would make it worse would be if the eastern eyewall came into NY Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 That's scary..over my house..anyway these days you can charge up cell phone without electric? Your car Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 yes i spoke to early, im pretty shocked it didn't head NE after NC Like i said earlier there is no real trend as of now....its about 250 miles further west then the 06z run and alot slower this go around........NHC cone forcast is pretty good right now......you have the 00z euro on the western side of the cone, 12z gfs center cone, and the hurricane models on the eastern edge of the cone... Funny how climo wins out down in SC.......as it looks now they will not be affected. % prob NYC has a higher chance of being directly impacted by a cane then the SC, as we stick out further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It looks to start impacting our area by Saturday afternoon with the worst it overnight Saturday right through Sunday evening....by early Monday morning it would be essentially be outta here At some point, this is coming almost due north, and how far east it gets before that happens is going to make a huge difference. This has to be about as close to a worst case scenario as could happen realistically for this area. The only thing that would make it worse would be if the eastern eyewall came into NY Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Here is the 12Z GFS 126 hr 3-hr precip and MSLP, and below that the 123 hr surface winds.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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