earthlight Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 It's great to see the new convection near the center. I'm on my phone but does anybody have the latest microwave scan? There's some dry air getting in there but I bet there's a nicely formed center or forming/broken eyewall underneath that deep convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It's great to see the new convection near the center. I'm on my phone but does anybody have the latest microwave scan? There's some dry air getting in there but I bet there's a nicely formed center or forming/broken eyewall underneath that deep convection. Weather Channel showed it and basically confirmed what you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I was in the main forum which died off and didn't realize the discussion momentum in here. Interesting mix of historical storms of similar strength and location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 If you basically did a crude dt/dn for the projected 500 mb heights for the east coast come Thursday, you can see why the shift in the model tracks is occurring. The 500 mb trough is projected to be deeper each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 eh...come on dude, anybody from the north shore knows the damage storms have caused on the sound and north shore harbors as well...massive erosion. Huntington down by the harbor is very low lying and floods during winter storms. A hurricane would allow a surge to come right down new york avenue into huntington. And i am not praying for divine intervention. I have no idea how you implied that. Hoping is just stating a preference, not my wish to control it. wow. I am being a bit tongue-in-cheek, I don't actually root for the destruction of long beach or the south shore. But i do root for extreme weather, and this is like the pinnacle of weather extremes. I can't help but hope for it. You guys can chill up here in commack, i'll have alcohol, and maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 eh...come on dude, anybody from the north shore knows the damage storms have caused on the sound and north shore harbors as well...massive erosion. Huntington down by the harbor is very low lying and floods during winter storms. A hurricane would allow a surge to come right down new york avenue into huntington. And i am not praying for divine intervention. I have no idea how you implied that. Hoping is just stating a preference, not my wish to control it. wow. we're suppose to be discussing the scientific aspects of the storm here, not how terrible it would be we got hit, we can save that for inside 48hrs after the path has been locked down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 A lot of the posts here belong in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Irene microwave courtesy CIMMS Tropical website, albeit a bit old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It's so easy to see the dry air intrussion on the SE quadrant, on VW imagery. I don't see how this will strengthen in the near term. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 A lot of the posts here belong in the banter thread. you are right. my mistake. was just responding to the posts about people wishing for a long island landfall. sorry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 A lot of the posts here belong in the banter thread. I've been hitting the report button all morning, you could do the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 waves modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Not a tropical model whatsoever, but the 12z NAM trended quicker and thus allows the storm to come north faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 New NHC cone: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents Too bad this is going to shift east as we get closer toward the weknd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 New advisory in from NHC, pressure is up 2 mb from the previous advisory, and the winds have been help at 100mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 New NHC cone: http://www.nhc.noaa....-daynl#contents Too bad this is going to shift east as we get closer toward the weknd. They wouldn't post a track like that if they didn't feel it was correct. Look how large that cone is, there is a reason they continue to say not to focus on the exact path beyond day 2 or 3. If you take a comprimise of the Euro and GFS , you end up with a track just to the right of the mean of the cone, and thats a track just offshore the NJ coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Give this thing 12-18 hours to get away from Hispaniola and we'll see the strengthening commence. Anybody doing verification maps yet for the last couple days? I wonder how sh'es been behaving when compared to what was forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 You know something I don't? If you go to this website: http://wind.mit.edu/~btangy/Home/TCGuid.htm you can see the model biases for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT 10-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER IRENE....AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT WEAKEN THIS SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MAKE IRENE A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL/HWRF. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. If the intensity is in question with the GFDL and the HWRF I would think there overall solutions are in question, along with any of the other models which use there data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Way too early to make any call but most of the tropical systems seemed to always to go out to sea and I think after hitting the SC coast some how it will curve out. That is my 2 cents but slight chance it could go just 50-100 miles east of LI and some impact with rain and some wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Way too early to make any call but most of the tropical systems seemed to always to go out to sea and I think after hitting the SC coast some how it will curve out. That is my 2 cents but slight chance it could go just 50-100 miles east of LI and some impact with rain and some wind. excellent scientific reasoning Most guiadance says this is a NC landfall, and its already been discussed in great detail as to why this is not your "typical" east coast TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 They wouldn't post a track like that if they didn't feel it was correct. Look how large that cone is, there is a reason they continue to say not to focus on the exact path beyond day 2 or 3. If you take a comprimise of the Euro and GFS , you end up with a track just to the right of the mean of the cone, and thats a track just offshore the NJ coastline. Of course not, but they can't jump east either. They always update the track with gradual shifts we we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Way too early to make any call but most of the tropical systems seemed to always to go out to sea and I think after hitting the SC coast some how it will curve out. That is my 2 cents but slight chance it could go just 50-100 miles east of LI and some impact with rain and some wind. Could be true..however this area has been in big lull the last 40 years..in the 40's and 50's storms did not go out to sea..In our lifetime this is not a hurricane zone,however climo before the 60's says different .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT 10-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER IRENE....AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT WEAKEN THIS SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MAKE IRENE A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL/HWRF. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. If the intensity is in question with the GFDL and the HWRF I would think there overall solutions are in question, along with any of the other models which use there data. Hispaniola's definitely having somewhat of an impact on Irene still, that should diminish by tonight. It should strengthen by then to major status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Of course not, but they can't jump east either. They always update the track with gradual shifts we we get closer. I haven't seen anything yet that would convince me that jumping way east is the correct move at this point. If and when the Euro and GFS diverge on an eastern solution, then its time to take the track seriously. As of now they are worlds apart, and a general comprimise has proven to be the best in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Hispaniola's definitely having somewhat of an impact on Irene still, that should diminish by tonight. It should strengthen by then to major status. my post has nothing to do with dry air intrusion, although you can see how big of a toll its currently taking through WV imagery The shear, which I don't think anyone predicted is not forecast to weaken by the ships model, and its enough to be an inhibitor if its correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I haven't seen anything yet that would convince me that jumping way east is the correct move at this point. If and when the Euro and GFS diverge on an eastern solution, then its time to take the track seriously. As of now they are worlds apart, and a general comprimise has proven to be the best in the long run. Yeah we are 5 days out, but the risk is there. Look at Bill and Earl. As soon as they sniff the westerlies...forget it. But, we are still 5 days out and yeah seeing the euro still drive it west gives me a little pause. I'm just saying don't get too excited just yet. I'd give it another 72 hrs to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 But as we've seen before a hurricane can go from Cat 1 to Cat 3 in a very short time once it gets into the right environment. Obviously it will be more difficult if the shear really rips it apart for it to reintensify my post has nothing to do with dry air intrusion, although you can see how big of a toll its currently taking through WV imagery The shear, which I don't think anyone predicted is not forecast to weaken by the ships model, and its enough to be an inhibitor if its correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yeah we are 5 days out, but the risk is there. Look at Bill and Earl. As soon as they sniff the westerlies...forget it. But, we are still 5 days out and yeah seeing the euro still drive it west gives me a little pause. I'm just saying don't get too excited just yet. I'd give it another 72 hrs to be honest. I completely agree with you, I'm not liking the fact that we're still five days out. That would be something else if this completely went fishing after all of the consecuitve model runs for weeks showing US hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 But as we've seen before a hurricane can go from Cat 1 to Cat 3 in a very short time once it gets into the right environment. Obviously it will be more difficult if the shear really rips it apart for it to reintensify no doubt, my main idea is that a weaker system early on, would stay further south, and might allow the TC to make it further west before getting tugged northward. Hold onto your hats, this is not a done deal yet, even for FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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