Hurricane Irene

[SBUWX23]

No more inland tracks there, and some of them are central/eastern LI. That's a significant east shift.

There are still several inland tracks. Consensus is still western LI or near NYC.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2011/al092011/track_early/aal09_2011082600_track_early.png

[skierinvermont]

I have a family member who lives near the water in Bayport LI.. what kind of surge could they expect if this comes into western LI? I don't know much about LI storm surges.. what was Gloria like?

[Sock Puppet]

This may be a little OT but an interesting coincidence. In 1944 there was an east coast earthquake on Sept. 5th and then the great Atlantic Hurricane hit the 13th.

[SBUWX23]

The guy on TWC is saying theres some dry air going into the storm..and something going on with the eye.

core of the cyclone looks plenty moist on the water vapor.

[SnowGoose69]

I have a family member who lives near the water in Bayport LI.. what kind of surge could they expect if this comes into western LI? I don't know much about LI storm surges.. what was Gloria like?

Gloria at low tide brought water to Merrick road in many areas in Nassau County, thats in some cases a mile or 3/4 of a mile from the Bay itself. Suffolk I'd imagine you could see worse.

[TheTrials]

Gloria at low tide brought water to Merrick road in many areas in Nassau County, thats in some cases a mile or 3/4 of a mile from the Bay itself. Suffolk I'd imagine you could see worse.

Correct. The timing of Gloria saved a lot of people from a lot worse damage.

[NorEaster27]

High tides for most of us are at around 8am. If this roared in during that timeframe, flooding could be massive.

High tides are 8am ish and 8pm...if we get flooding during the morning high tide we can be assured of worse flooding during the evening tide. Even if the storm is north of the area by then the water will not quickly escape on west winds, it will continue to rise into high tide.

[winterwx21]

There are still several inland tracks. Consensus is still western LI or near NYC.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2011/al092011/track_early/aal09_2011082600_track_early.png

Thanks. What I was looking at on my computer looked completely different (some kind of error I guess). Now with your link I see the tightest cluster around NYC, as others mentioned (along with the inland and east tracks).

[bates]

I think the window for a direct strike is from Cape May (and moving just inland) to eastern Suffolk. I'd lean toward Eastern Suffolk because hurricanes often fade east somewhat at the last minute, but even that would result in major flood and potentially surge damage well to the west. Also, a further east hit would likely result in little or no time over land in NC. The 1944 hurricane (which I still think is a great analog for this) never touched land until New England I believe, and still massively damaged much of the area. Donna which went east also was devastating for many. This is and will stay a huge hurricane, and 10" of rain in spots along with what we've already seen this month will likely bring about record flooding.

Also, the storm looks to be ramping up again, which is bad timing as it approaches the Gulf Stream and NC. This does still have the chance to strike at them or near them as a strong cat 3. That means our chance of seeing a full blown hurricane here are much higher. Upper air conditions should also be favorable all the way to here even if the water dips into the 70s. This is the real deal, folks.

JM -- Just an observation, and not intended as a criticism for anyone in any way -- it seems many (most) on the board have repeatedly been citing the gfs and nam runs which show a track just offshore and subsequent landfall over LI, as well as repeated references to how climatology supports the further east and offshore track. This, all the while that the official NHC track is inland through the entire state of NJ and north to NYC. The NHC track, in fact, nudged slightly west this pm. I have yet to see any posts explain why the NHC supports a further west track while others do not. This is not to say that the NHC has a lock on the ultimate outcome (heck, a few days ago south Florida was the projected landfall). But the NHC certainly is aware of climatology, aware of the gfs, nam, and other models which are further east, yet their track is west of those. Interesting that there's no explanation or analysis posted of this difference (unless I missed it but probably not).

[Northwest NJ]

What type of effect will the storm have on the Hudson and East/Harlem river? What about the northern bays such as Flushing Bay, Oyster Bay etc.?

[SnowGoose69]

JM -- Just an observation, and not intended as a criticism for anyone in any way -- it seems many (most) on the board have repeatedly been citing the gfs and nam runs which show a track just offshore and subsequent landfall over LI, as well as repeated references to how climatology supports the further east and offshore track. This, all the while that the official NHC track is inland through the entire state of NJ and north to NYC. The NHC track, in fact, nudged slightly west this pm. I have yet to see any posts explain why the NHC supports a further west track while others do not. This is not to say that the NHC has a lock on the ultimate outcome (heck, a few days ago south Florida was the projected landfall). But the NHC certainly is aware of climatology, aware of the gfs, nam, and other models which are further east, yet their track is west of those. Interesting that there's no explanation or analysis posted of this difference (unless I missed it but probably not).

<br> I still think if the storm does not come into the body of North Carolina and more skirts the outer banks or goes over Pamlico Sound its going to wind up over eastern LI. I have seen the models attempt to run this sort of track before, typically more in the long range than this. Its very hard for a system to come in anywhere west of the Nassau/Suffolk border or so. In this case we know there is going to be some interaction with features to the west which do induce a NE turn sometime very close to when it reaches LI. For that reason I think if the idea of just bringing this into far eastern NC is correct, and many of the models at least agree on that....then it could wind up more over eastern LI in the end that most of the guidance now shows. I have been preaching either an eastern LI or well inland push with a low chance of that in between scenario, the well inland push is now looking much more unlikely since the west trend from the Euro the other night never was jumped on by other models. The other thing to note is both Gloria and Bob came in more east than the models had beyond 48-60 hours, and most landfalling systems since then including tropical storms have done the same.<br>

[jm1220]

JM -- Just an observation, and not intended as a criticism for anyone in any way -- it seems many (most) on the board have repeatedly been citing the gfs and nam runs which show a track just offshore and subsequent landfall over LI, as well as repeated references to how climatology supports the further east and offshore track. This, all the while that the official NHC track is inland through the entire state of NJ and north to NYC. The NHC track, in fact, nudged slightly west this pm. I have yet to see any posts explain why the NHC supports a further west track while others do not. This is not to say that the NHC has a lock on the ultimate outcome (heck, a few days ago south Florida was the projected landfall). But the NHC certainly is aware of climatology, aware of the gfs, nam, and other models which are further east, yet their track is west of those. Interesting that there's no explanation or analysis posted of this difference (unless I missed it but probably not).

Given the usual margin for error at this timeframe, there's amazing agreement and there has been for days now at a strike over or very near the immediate NYC area. If you sort of take the mean of the tracks over the last day or so by various models, that's where it has been for a while. The Euro and other models even tracked well into NJ today and yesterday. The bottom line is we're going to get hit very hard regardless of landfall in the Hamptons or the NJ shore. It's the water and storm surge that I'm worried about most of all though. If we get a hit on Sunday morning near high tide we're screwed. Even low tide can bring about a lot of flooding. That, plus the 10" of rain possible in many areas in an already record wet month.

[weathermedic]

What type of effect will the storm have on the Hudson and East/Harlem river? What about the northern bays such as Flushing Bay, Oyster Bay etc.?

Judging from the Dec 92 nor'easter, the FDR Drive will be under water from the East River in the East 60th Street area. If I remember correctly reading about the 1821 hurricane, water from both rivers rose up to flood Manhattan entirely up to what is now present day Canal Street.

[kevbo81]

I think the window for a direct strike is from Cape May (and moving just inland) to eastern Suffolk. I'd lean toward Eastern Suffolk because hurricanes often fade east somewhat at the last minute, but even that would result in major flood and potentially surge damage well to the west. Also, a further east hit would likely result in little or no time over land in NC. The 1944 hurricane (which I still think is a great analog for this) never touched land until New England I believe, and still massively damaged much of the area. Donna which went east also was devastating for many. This is and will stay a huge hurricane, and 10" of rain in spots along with what we've already seen this month will likely bring about record flooding.

Also, the storm looks to be ramping up again, which is bad timing as it approaches the Gulf Stream and NC. This does still have the chance to strike at them or near them as a strong cat 3. That means our chance of seeing a full blown hurricane here are much higher. Upper air conditions should also be favorable all the way to here even if the water dips into the 70s. This is the real deal, folks.

your posts are always well thought out and informative...keep it up

[jm1220]

I still think if the storm does not come into the body of North Carolina and more skirts the outer banks or goes over Pamlico Sound its going to wind up over eastern LI. I have seen the models attempt to run this sort of track before, typically more in the long range than this. Its very hard for a system to come in anywhere west of the Nassau/Suffolk border or so. In this case we know there is going to be some interaction with features to the west which do induce a NE turn sometime very close to when it reaches LI. For that reason I think if the idea of just bringing this into far eastern NC is correct, and many of the models at least agree on that....then it could wind up more over eastern LI in the end that most of the guidance now shows. I have been preaching either an eastern LI or well inland push with a low chance of that in between scenario, the well inland push is now looking much more unlikely since the west trend from the Euro the other night never was jumped on by other models.

I'm personally not so sure it's that unlikely-Gloria and Belle made landfall right around here, so it's possible under the right set of conditions. I could certainly see the final fade east happening, but not so sure it's that much more likely than another track close to NYC. But people shouldn't be fixated on that anyway-people forget that Donna, 1944, and other hurricanes made landfall well away from immediate NYC and still caused huge damage.

[SnowGoose69]

What type of effect will the storm have on the Hudson and East/Harlem river? What about the northern bays such as Flushing Bay, Oyster Bay etc.?

If it follows the NHC track then very severe. If it goes over LI then I don't think it will be anything catastrophic. A coastal hugger really has that potent ENE fetch. A more typical NE header you will likely have a more northerly wind gradient.

[nycsnow]

NYC transit system to shut down saturday

"NYC plans to shut down entire transportation system on Saturday - nydailynews nydn.us/pdEiDq

breakingnews.com • 8/25/11 9:02 PM"

[earthlight]

All tolls will be suspended on the Garden State Parkway in New Jersey starting at 800am this Friday.

[KEITH L.I]

NYC transit system to shut down saturday

"NYC plans to shut down entire transportation system on Saturday - nydailynews nydn.us/pdEiDq

breakingnews.com • 8/25/11 9:02 PM"

lololol..whatever..i just don't get it..what does a train have to do with a hurricane

[blizzardof09]

All tolls will be suspended on the Garden State Parkway in New Jersey starting at 800am this Friday.

hey earthlight would you like some help with the server the next couple days? my good friend is a certified cisco netwrk tech and is willing to help you guys out let me know through pm. trying to help the site here

[ag3]

lololol..whatever..i just don't get it..what does a train have to do with a hurricane

Flooding of the underground tunnels.

[earthlight]

hey earthlight would you like some help with the server the next couple days? my good friend is a certified cisco netwrk tech and is willing to help you guys out let me know through pm. trying to help the site here

PM one of the administrators (wow, ian, dendrite, stormtracker, etc) with the info

[Sundog]

Flooding of the underground tunnels.

It's stupid to shut down the whole system when only a select few areas have the possibility of getting flooded from the storm surge.

[LocoAko]

This is what became of the Hoboken PATH terminal during the 1992 Nor'easter.

[jm1220]

Irene really looks to be ramping up now. Pressures must be dropping through the 940s. This still has the chance to briefly hit Cat 4 over the Gulf Stream. This is also a bad area for it to be ramping up, as it won't have as much time to level off/weaken before hitting land in NC. Floyd/Isabel at this point from what I recall had already well peaked and were on the decline already.

[donsutherland1]

It's stupid to shut down the whole system when only a select few areas have the possibility of getting flooded from the storm surge.

In part, the move might be aimed at discouraging people from being outdoors during the hurricane.

[CAT5ANDREW]

lololol..whatever..i just don't get it..what does a train have to do with a hurricane

I work as a motorman for the NYC Transit Authority.There are lines like the Brighton Line where there are a lot of trees that overhang the tracks.There are tunnels in lower manhatthan near Battery park tha may flood.THere is the A train that runs right by the water in Howard beach and broad Channnel where the tracks have been submerged in the past.People waiting for a train on an elevated structure could be injured from debris that is carried by hurricane force winds or be even blown onto the tracks...there is a whole lot of things that can go wrong.Smart move by them for safety purposes one which I agree with 100%

[earthlight]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=24518&st=0