ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like they moved east a bit. Yup. Tightest cluster went from eastern Jersey to now right over NYC and Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like they moved east a bit. Looks west I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 DOnt forget,we will get 2 periods of winds.One with the front side and the other on the backside. when the eye passes our latitude.THe winds on the backside will likely be stronger than the front part.First SE winds then NW winds.Perhaps I am preaching to the choir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z GFS sped up the forward speed over the 12z with an earlier eye passage on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Still 2 and half days to iron out the track. Anyone locking in an NYC landfall could get burned. You all saw how quickly the models shifted west recently with that one Euro run when everything else was just clipping the Cape. That's because they did a massive drop and sampled all the pieces. Those factors are all sampled and on land now. The violent shift in modeling was due to new and accurate data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks west I think? I was referring to our area. Not sure if they moved west in NC, I didn't look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That's because they did a massive drop and sampled all the pieces. Those factors are all sampled and on land now. The violent shift in modeling was due to new and accurate data. Yea true but still needs to be watched. Btw, look at bluewave's post. 18z is no where near us compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yea true but still needs to be watched. Btw, look at bluewave's post. 18z is no where near us compared to 12z. It is up to Sandy Hook. Then it turns rapidly ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Forecast on t.v has 75-90 mph winds with 6-12 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It is up to Sandy Hook. Then it turns rapidly ENE. You know I can throw a rock at Sandy Hook right? Post the map that shows that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Crossbay Blvd could be under several feet of watr by SUnday. yes including my house but I still dont see that happening....yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It is up to Sandy Hook. Then it turns rapidly ENE. Wouldn't it still be major wind flooding around here regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 You know I can throw a rock at Sandy Hook right? Post the map that shows that. 20-30 miles south of Sandy Hook. I Should've been exact. Then the rapid ENE hook starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Wouldn't it still be major wind flooding around here regardless Yes. Any track that brings it almost due north, from Delaware would do damage around here. Even if it turns ENE after and landfall is over Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Wow Seems pretty damn big, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yes. Any track that brings it almost due north, from Delaware would do damage around here. Even if it turns ENE after and landfall is over Suffolk County. Yeah hurricane winds are 70 miles out I believe and TS 290 so regardless gonna be A LOT of wind damage in and around NYC li nj, mta probaly shutting down they said once sustained winds of 39 hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yea true but still needs to be watched. Btw, look at bluewave's post. 18z is no where near us compared to 12z. It's still very close, though not as close as 12z. The 18z GFS simply speeds it up. Here it is at 69 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Seems pretty damn big, doesn't it? Looks about the size of Texas...pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think the window for a direct strike is from Cape May (and moving just inland) to eastern Suffolk. I'd lean toward Eastern Suffolk because hurricanes often fade east somewhat at the last minute, but even that would result in major flood and potentially surge damage well to the west. Also, a further east hit would likely result in little or no time over land in NC. The 1944 hurricane (which I still think is a great analog for this) never touched land until New England I believe, and still massively damaged much of the area. Donna which went east also was devastating for many. This is and will stay a huge hurricane, and 10" of rain in spots along with what we've already seen this month will likely bring about record flooding. Also, the storm looks to be ramping up again, which is bad timing as it approaches the Gulf Stream and NC. This does still have the chance to strike at them or near them as a strong cat 3. That means our chance of seeing a full blown hurricane here are much higher. Upper air conditions should also be favorable all the way to here even if the water dips into the 70s. This is the real deal, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It's still very close, though not as close as 12z. The 18z GFS simply speeds it up. Here it is at 69 hours: Agreed, however wind wise we are on the weaker side of the storm with a track like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It's still very close, though not as close as 12z. The 18z GFS simply speeds it up. Here it is at 69 hours: High tides for most of us are at around 8am. If this roared in during that timeframe, flooding could be massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yeah hurricane winds are 70 miles out I believe and TS 290 so regardless gonna be A LOT of wind damage in and around NYC li nj, mta probaly shutting down they said once sustained winds of 39 hit Those are the diameters as of right now. Hurricane force winds will greatly diminish in areal coverage when she gets near our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like they moved east a bit. No more inland tracks there, and some of them are central/eastern LI. That's a significant east shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The track of GLORIA seems almost identical.. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/91/Gloria_rainfall.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Those are the diameters as of right now. Hurricane force winds will greatly diminish in areal coverage when she gets near our latitude. I would think they would expand as the storm is going to grow in size and i think theres a good chance the storm will be outflowed very well on its north side will allow for the system not to weaken. Typically the wind fields expands when the storm begins to weaken so I would not be shocked if you see hurricane force gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 No more inland tracks there, and some of them are central/eastern LI. That's a significant east shift. It's best to look at the tightest cluster for that. Not the outlier west and east tracks. The tight mean cluster shifted slightly east. From mid-Jersey to now over NYC/Queens. And in line with the best model we have, the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 No more inland tracks there, and some of them are central/eastern LI. That's a significant east shift. It's more of a tightening of a cluster of tracks than anything. The vast majority of the tracks on there are in agreement with the 18z NCEP models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The guy on TWC is saying theres some dry air going into the storm..and something going on with the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 No more inland tracks there, and some of them are central/eastern LI. That's a significant east shift. There are still several inland tracks. Consensus is still western LI or near NYC. http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2011/al092011/track_early/aal09_2011082600_track_early.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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