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Hurricane Irene


earthlight

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DOnt forget,we will get 2 periods of winds.One with the front side and the other on the backside. when the eye passes our latitude.THe winds on the backside will likely be stronger than the front part.First SE winds then NW winds.Perhaps I am preaching to the choir

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Still 2 and half days to iron out the track. Anyone locking in an NYC landfall could get burned. You all saw how quickly the models shifted west recently with that one Euro run when everything else was just clipping the Cape.

That's because they did a massive drop and sampled all the pieces.

Those factors are all sampled and on land now.

The violent shift in modeling was due to new and accurate data.

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That's because they did a massive drop and sampled all the pieces.

Those factors are all sampled and on land now.

The violent shift in modeling was due to new and accurate data.

Yea true but still needs to be watched.

Btw, look at bluewave's post. 18z is no where near us compared to 12z.

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Yes. Any track that brings it almost due north, from Delaware would do damage around here. Even if it turns ENE after and landfall is over Suffolk County.

Yeah hurricane winds are 70 miles out I believe and TS 290 so regardless gonna be A LOT of wind damage in and around NYC li nj, mta probaly shutting down they said once sustained winds of 39 hit

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I think the window for a direct strike is from Cape May (and moving just inland) to eastern Suffolk. I'd lean toward Eastern Suffolk because hurricanes often fade east somewhat at the last minute, but even that would result in major flood and potentially surge damage well to the west. Also, a further east hit would likely result in little or no time over land in NC. The 1944 hurricane (which I still think is a great analog for this) never touched land until New England I believe, and still massively damaged much of the area. Donna which went east also was devastating for many. This is and will stay a huge hurricane, and 10" of rain in spots along with what we've already seen this month will likely bring about record flooding.

Also, the storm looks to be ramping up again, which is bad timing as it approaches the Gulf Stream and NC. This does still have the chance to strike at them or near them as a strong cat 3. That means our chance of seeing a full blown hurricane here are much higher. Upper air conditions should also be favorable all the way to here even if the water dips into the 70s. This is the real deal, folks.

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Yeah hurricane winds are 70 miles out I believe and TS 290 so regardless gonna be A LOT of wind damage in and around NYC li nj, mta probaly shutting down they said once sustained winds of 39 hit

Those are the diameters as of right now. Hurricane force winds will greatly diminish in areal coverage when she gets near our latitude.

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Those are the diameters as of right now. Hurricane force winds will greatly diminish in areal coverage when she gets near our latitude.

I would think they would expand as the storm is going to grow in size and i think theres a good chance the storm will be outflowed very well on its north side will allow for the system not to weaken. Typically the wind fields expands when the storm begins to weaken so I would not be shocked if you see hurricane force gusts.

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No more inland tracks there, and some of them are central/eastern LI. That's a significant east shift.

It's best to look at the tightest cluster for that.

Not the outlier west and east tracks.

The tight mean cluster shifted slightly east. From mid-Jersey to now over NYC/Queens.

And in line with the best model we have, the euro.

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