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Hurricane Irene


earthlight

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No I think you guys are just talking about different things. That map you are referencing would indicate a hit on NC but most of the models have it grazing or hitting NC and then hugging the coast or just east of the coastline.

We looking at the same guidance chart? The map a few lines up is hotlinked, and might be lagging from 12z on your screen. Unless I'm entirely wrong, which is also possible.

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Yeah at this point I think the determining factor in how bad things get around here is whether or not it makes landfall and stays inland, or grazes the coast and stays mostly over water. Either way we get a ton of rain and some wind but is probably the difference between a tropical storm and potentially close to cat 2 type conditions.

SREFS continue to pound and look NAM/GFS ish. Essentially its about a 50 mile difference right now between ukie, euro, gfs, nam. Amazing concensus.

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Welcome back.

18z GFS rode up the Jersey coast and then turned sharply ENE riding the south shore before making landfall in Suffolk County.

NAM/GFS/EURO blend is pretty much right over NYC. Intense surge and flooding. Western Long Island sound towards New Rochelle is going to have huge problems. Early models are running now.

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Any maps available ? Was it on the coast or just offshore..

A track like that wouldbe surreal...

It was just offshore. Never touching Jersey, it appears. Stops it's northerly movement, around Sandy Hook and then turns ENE towards mid to eastern Suffolk County.

I'm on my phone, so it's a little tough to post images.

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This storm is going to be a life changing event for a lot of people.Beaches will be destroyed,housands of trees will be down and many homes will be severely flooded from storm surge in areas like Long beach.

The trees will shock everyone. Our trees are not made to withstand 65+mph winds.

Palm trees are a different story.

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Good to be back fellas. Irene is still trying to get her core better organized. I think dry air is still an issue but the pressure continues to fall.

we'll see if the winds pick up and the overall satellite presentation gets better tonight

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Hurricane models are still all over the place 18z GFDL is in the poconos, 18z HWRF is over montauk.  Its still too early to say if this storm goes over NYC, 100 miles west or 100 miles east.

Crossbay Blvd could be under several feet of watr by SUnday.

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It was just offshore. Never touching Jersey, it appears. Stops it's northerly movement, around Sandy Hook and then turns ENE towards mid to eastern Suffolk County.

I'm on my phone, so it's a little tough to post images.

Looks to me that it makes landfall around Bayshore or Sayville. Almost exactly like my forecast, lol. Okay, I'll stop talking about that now.

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Hurricane models are still all over the place 18z GFDL is in the poconos, 18z HWRF is over montauk. Its still too early to say if this storm goes over NYC, 100 miles west or 100 miles east.

The Euro and GFS have been locked in now for several runs. Only wobbling a few miles each run.

Ignore the models that are all over the place. GFDL is bouncing hundreds of miles each run.

NAM has also been surprisingly steady. Almost the exact track for at least 4-5 runs now.

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It was just offshore. Never touching Jersey, it appears. Stops it's northerly movement, around Sandy Hook and then turns ENE towards mid to eastern Suffolk County.

I'm on my phone, so it's a little tough to post images.

That type of track is just scary for LI.. It's not even funny.. I'm actually getting a little nervous... With so manybig trees here on the north shore, as cat5 states people have no idea what is about to hit them..

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The trees will shock everyone. Our trees are not made to withstand 65+mph winds.

Palm trees are a different story.

And they are fully leaved. This isn't March 2010, and even then for whatever reason a lot of LI never saw the winds SW CT and westchester saw. People will be surprised. I see people saying only 60mph, only gust maybe to hurricane force. With all the rain we have had and the potential for a PRE and a ton of rain before the landfall, its a recipe for disaster.

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The trees will shock everyone. Our trees are not made to withstand 65+mph winds.Palm trees are a different story.

I saw it last year with the macroburst,you with the tornado.That lasted seconds,the hurricane force winds we get will be for several hours.Cleanup is going to take weeks.

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Still 2 and half days to iron out the track. Anyone locking in an NYC landfall could get burned. You all saw how quickly the models shifted west recently with that one Euro run when everything else was just clipping the Cape.

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