Stormlover74 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 No I think you guys are just talking about different things. That map you are referencing would indicate a hit on NC but most of the models have it grazing or hitting NC and then hugging the coast or just east of the coastline. We looking at the same guidance chart? The map a few lines up is hotlinked, and might be lagging from 12z on your screen. Unless I'm entirely wrong, which is also possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Irene could be getting alittle better organized now. No more island clutter. If i were on the NC coast i would be boarding up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 now that I look at the Euro regional surface views a little closer zoomed in... the track does a wild zig zag pattern between NC and NY.. it goes northeast, northwest, northeast, then northwest again.. it's funny looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 SREFS continue to pound and look NAM/GFS ish. Essentially its about a 50 mile difference right now between ukie, euro, gfs, nam. Amazing concensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 i will take one of those 4 panels from the last two rows for the win Alex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yeah at this point I think the determining factor in how bad things get around here is whether or not it makes landfall and stays inland, or grazes the coast and stays mostly over water. Either way we get a ton of rain and some wind but is probably the difference between a tropical storm and potentially close to cat 2 type conditions. SREFS continue to pound and look NAM/GFS ish. Essentially its about a 50 mile difference right now between ukie, euro, gfs, nam. Amazing concensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Welcome back. 18z GFS rode up the Jersey coast and then turned sharply ENE riding the south shore before making landfall in Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Welcome back. 18z GFS rode up the Jersey coast and then turned sharply ENE riding the south shore before making landfall in Suffolk County. NAM/GFS/EURO blend is pretty much right over NYC. Intense surge and flooding. Western Long Island sound towards New Rochelle is going to have huge problems. Early models are running now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Welcome back. 18z GFS rode up the Jersey coast and then turned sharply ENE riding the south shore before making landfall in Suffolk County. Any maps available ? Was it on the coast or just offshore.. A track like that wouldbe surreal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This storm is going to be a life changing event for a lot of people.Beaches will be destroyed,housands of trees will be down and many homes will be severely flooded from storm surge in areas like Long beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Any maps available ? Was it on the coast or just offshore.. A track like that wouldbe surreal... It was just offshore. Never touching Jersey, it appears. Stops it's northerly movement, around Sandy Hook and then turns ENE towards mid to eastern Suffolk County. I'm on my phone, so it's a little tough to post images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 http://www.accuweather.com/us/ny/bay-shore/11706/forecast-details.asp?fday=4 i dont even remember seeing wind gusts to 60 mph ever. this is gonna be absolutely insame here come sunday morning WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This storm is going to be a life changing event for a lot of people.Beaches will be destroyed,housands of trees will be down and many homes will be severely flooded from storm surge in areas like Long beach. The trees will shock everyone. Our trees are not made to withstand 65+mph winds. Palm trees are a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hurricane models are still all over the place 18z GFDL is in the poconos, 18z HWRF is over montauk. Its still too early to say if this storm goes over NYC, 100 miles west or 100 miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Good to be back fellas. Irene is still trying to get her core better organized. I think dry air is still an issue but the pressure continues to fall. we'll see if the winds pick up and the overall satellite presentation gets better tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hurricane models are still all over the place 18z GFDL is in the poconos, 18z HWRF is over montauk. Its still too early to say if this storm goes over NYC, 100 miles west or 100 miles east. Crossbay Blvd could be under several feet of watr by SUnday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It was just offshore. Never touching Jersey, it appears. Stops it's northerly movement, around Sandy Hook and then turns ENE towards mid to eastern Suffolk County. I'm on my phone, so it's a little tough to post images. Looks to me that it makes landfall around Bayshore or Sayville. Almost exactly like my forecast, lol. Okay, I'll stop talking about that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hurricane models are still all over the place 18z GFDL is in the poconos, 18z HWRF is over montauk. Its still too early to say if this storm goes over NYC, 100 miles west or 100 miles east. The Euro and GFS have been locked in now for several runs. Only wobbling a few miles each run. Ignore the models that are all over the place. GFDL is bouncing hundreds of miles each run. NAM has also been surprisingly steady. Almost the exact track for at least 4-5 runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It was just offshore. Never touching Jersey, it appears. Stops it's northerly movement, around Sandy Hook and then turns ENE towards mid to eastern Suffolk County. I'm on my phone, so it's a little tough to post images. That type of track is just scary for LI.. It's not even funny.. I'm actually getting a little nervous... With so manybig trees here on the north shore, as cat5 states people have no idea what is about to hit them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The trees will shock everyone. Our trees are not made to withstand 65+mph winds. Palm trees are a different story. And they are fully leaved. This isn't March 2010, and even then for whatever reason a lot of LI never saw the winds SW CT and westchester saw. People will be surprised. I see people saying only 60mph, only gust maybe to hurricane force. With all the rain we have had and the potential for a PRE and a ton of rain before the landfall, its a recipe for disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Thx http://forecast.weat...d=NYZ078&zflg=1 You can input your location at the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hurricane models are still all over the place 18z GFDL is in the poconos, 18z HWRF is over montauk. Its still too early to say if this storm goes over NYC, 100 miles west or 100 miles east. I'm much more "afraid" of a miss to the east than a miss to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The trees will shock everyone. Our trees are not made to withstand 65+mph winds.Palm trees are a different story. I saw it last year with the macroburst,you with the tornado.That lasted seconds,the hurricane force winds we get will be for several hours.Cleanup is going to take weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think by 11 all of uptons zones will have hurricane watch btw Jim cantore in battery park to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hoboken will be 90% flooded with a Cat 1 Hurricane the Mayor said. They are telling everyone to evacuate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 0z early guidance is out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 0z early guidance is out Looks like they moved east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Early model average just eye balling it looks to go right over NYC, maybe a sliver to the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Still 2 and half days to iron out the track. Anyone locking in an NYC landfall could get burned. You all saw how quickly the models shifted west recently with that one Euro run when everything else was just clipping the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.