Hurricane Irene

[donsutherland1]

My early thoughts concerning Irene is that the 0z Euro track is probably too far to the west when it comes to the NY/NJ/southern New England areas. A number of times in the previous hurricane season, the Euro tended to be somewhat overdone with the ridging. I'm not taking the 6z GFS verbatim, but suggesting that the shift from the 0z might be hinting that one can expect a little less ridging than what is shown on the Euro. Hence, my guess is that Irene will track somewhat farther to the east than currently depicted on the Euro and probably have somewhat of a more easterly component on its track (somewhat greater fade to the east) than shown there, as well. I don't expect an 1821/1893-style track, but perhaps something falling between Belle (1976) and Edna (1954). I wouldn't be surprised to see the 12z GFS adjust somewhat west of the 6z run.

As for the earlier discussion on the 1821 storm, the only thing I can think of that would have allowed it to hit NYC as a Category 3 on its track is probably a transition process similar to what occurred with Hazel. I tend to agree with Josh that the storm was not a Category 3 when it came by NYC, but had been a Category 3 when it made landfall near Cape May and had been moving sufficiently quickly that its storm surge was greater than what one would have expected with a typical Category 1 or perhaps 2 landfall near NYC.

[NorEaster27]

My early thoughts concerning Irene is that the 0z Euro track is probably too far to the west when it comes to the NY/NJ/southern New England areas. A number of times in the previous hurricane season, the Euro tended to be somewhat overdone with the ridging. I'm not taking the 6z GFS verbatim, but suggesting that the shift from the 0z might be hinting that one can expect a little less ridging than what is shown on the Euro. Hence, my guess is that Irene will track somewhat farther to the east than currently depicted on the Euro and probably have somewhat of a more easterly component on its track (somewhat greater fade to the east) than shown there, as well. I don't expect an 1821/1893-style track, but perhaps something falling between Belle (1976) and Edna (1954). I wouldn't be surprised to see the 12z GFS adjust somewhat west of the 6z run.

As for the earlier discussion on the 1821 storm, the only thing I can think of that would have allowed it to hit NYC as a Category 3 on its track is probably a transition process similar to what occurred with Hazel. I tend to agree with Josh that the storm was not a Category 3 when it came by NYC, but had been a Category 3 when it made landfall near Cape May and had been moving sufficiently quickly that its storm surge was greater than what one would have expected with a typical Category 1 or perhaps 2 landfall near NYC.

very much agree with your thoughts, this pattern just does not support an 1821 or 1893 type track. We would need a much more sharper neg tilted trough further west to get a storm to accelerate to the north. A NNE or NE heading from the outerbanks is much more likely and climo favored.

[IsentropicLift]

My early thoughts concerning Irene is that the 0z Euro track is probably too far to the west when it comes to the NY/NJ/southern New England areas. A number of times in the previous hurricane season, the Euro tended to be somewhat overdone with the ridging. I'm not taking the 6z GFS verbatim, but suggesting that the shift from the 0z might be hinting that one can expect a little less ridging than what is shown on the Euro. Hence, my guess is that Irene will track somewhat farther to the east than currently depicted on the Euro and probably have somewhat of a more easterly component on its track (somewhat greater fade to the east) than shown there, as well. I don't expect an 1821/1893-style track, but perhaps something falling between Belle (1976) and Edna (1954). I wouldn't be surprised to see the 12z GFS adjust somewhat west of the 6z run.

As for the earlier discussion on the 1821 storm, the only thing I can think of that would have allowed it to hit NYC as a Category 3 on its track is probably a transition process similar to what occurred with Hazel. I tend to agree with Josh that the storm was not a Category 3 when it came by NYC, but had been a Category 3 when it made landfall near Cape May and had been moving sufficiently quickly that its storm surge was greater than what one would have expected with a typical Category 1 or perhaps 2 landfall near NYC.

If you read the writeup on the 1821 hurricane, it was moving to the NE at 35 MPH, and possibly a cat 5 at landfall in the Carolinas, it's very possible that the system phased with a trough (Floyd 1999 like) which artifically maintained the strength of the system, and got it up here fast enough.

[Sundog]

That looks like a tight cluster with the storm moving NE after hitiing NC, that track would not have a huge impact on the area except maybe in eastern LI. Don't forget models like to trend east as we get closer to the event as they often underestimate the effect of the westerlies. I would be much more comfortable if the models were showing this into PA as this point in time. This agrees with Ryan's early thoughts:

That track also fits climo and would not be a big deal for this area besides some beach errosion and maybe coastal flooding.

I thought global models overestimate the effect of the westerlies.

[ag3]

I thought global models overestimate the effect of the westerlies.

The tight cluster is right around NC and heading NNE (9 models). The tracks off the coast (4 of them) are not tightly clustered:

[earthlight]

It looks like we are finally beginning to see the track guidance begin to pick up on the sharper recurve which myself and others were harping on yesterday. In todays models the main cause is the active flow across the northern tier of the conus, but the mid level ridge positioning and erosion could very well come into play eventually as well.

[TheTrials]

It looks like we are finally beginning to see the track guidance begin to pick up on the sharper recurve which myself and others were harping on yesterday. In todays models the main cause is the active flow across the northern tier of the conus, but the mid level ridge positioning and erosion could very well come into play eventually as well.

Its not just the active flow which has been here all summer, its also that the models have been under-doing the trough strength this summer in the longer range so as better data is ingested and digested by the models specifically coming in from the PAC NW the later part of the storms track will begin to adjust accordingly.

[NorEaster27]

The severe storms on Thursday are probably a bigger deal than this storm tracing well SE of the area.

[jm1220]

Its not just the active flow which has been here all summer, its also that the models have been under-doing the trough strength this summer in the longer range so as better data is ingested and digested by the models specifically coming in from the PAC NW the later part of the storms track will begin to adjust accordingly.

Others mentioned the strong Texas ridge which sharpens the downstream troughs, and it could certainly be a factor here also.

[donsutherland1]

If you read the writeup on the 1821 hurricane, it was moving to the NE at 35 MPH, and possibly a cat 5 at landfall in the Carolinas, it's very possible that the system phased with a trough (Floyd 1999 like) which artifically maintained the strength of the system, and got it up here fast enough.

I agree that some kind of phasing was responsible for the 1821 hurricane's strength on its second landfall. From the news accounts I have read from the time, I believe that the 1821 hurricane was probably a strong Category 4 storm (perhaps upper end of the Cat. 4 range) when it made NC landfall, perhaps rivaling or exceeding Hazel's strength on landfall. That no recorded Category 5 hurricanes have hit the Carolinas does not, in my view, mean that such an event is not possible. IMO, had Hugo had a little more time before making landfall, it might have reached Category 5 strength and its rapid intensification onto landfall is a "warning" of sorts that one cannot completely discount the prospect of a Category 5 landfall in that area, even as the odds are very low.

[Weathergun]

Here are more the12z plots, Not a closed case yet, but it looks like shift east from 6z overall again. The BAM models are showing sharper recurve. But not necessarily a wide-right miss either:

[ag3]

Here are more the12z plots, Not a closed case yet, but it looks like shift east from 6z overall again. The BAM models are showing sharper recurve. But not necessarily a wide-right miss either:

Looks like half the suite is a sharper recurve and half are more inland.

[IsentropicLift]

It looks like we are finally beginning to see the track guidance begin to pick up on the sharper recurve which myself and others were harping on yesterday. In todays models the main cause is the active flow across the northern tier of the conus, but the mid level ridge positioning and erosion could very well come into play eventually as well.

the mean of the track guidance tracks this over eastern NC and then just offshore the NJ coast, which isn't much different than what the globels are showing, and would be a high impact event for us.

[IsentropicLift]

The main reason that some of the models have trended further east is because they are faster with the overall system, and allow the first trough to have more of an influiance, so the system doesn't get left behind, and ridging can't re-establish itself to the north.

TIMING IS EVERYTHING

[jm1220]

the mean of the track guidance tracks this over eastern NC and then just offshore the NJ coast, which isn't much different than what the globels are showing, and would be a high impact event for us.

A lot of agreement for this far out in time. I think if it goes inland over NC at all, it should have a direct impact for many esp. near the coast. If it just scrapes by hatteras or environs, it likely won't and will just be a coastal erosion/wave threat outside the Twin Forks.

[IsentropicLift]

A lot of agreement for this far out in time. I think if it goes inland over NC at all, it should have a direct impact for many esp. near the coast. If it just scrapes by hatteras or environs, it likely won't and will just be a coastal erosion/wave threat outside the Twin Forks.

I'm excited to see the 12z GFS and Euro, A general comprimise of what they have been showing tracks the TC fairly close to the NJ coastline, and we end up with a high impact event. I think alot of people have fish in the back of there mind, and I am one of them, but we still have so long to go. There will be nearly 20 more GFS runs between now and when the system approaches.

[Jefflaw77]

I think a Bob type of track is most likely.. In fact a track just east of that into the islands seems even more probable.. A Gloria type track seems almost impossible..

I don't think anyone actually wants to see a storm w/ 100mph winds come into Jamaica bay... Long island would be ruined...

[jm1220]

I'm excited to see the 12z GFS and Euro, A general comprimise of what they have been showing tracks the TC fairly close to the NJ coastline, and we end up with a high impact event. I think alot of people have fish in the back of there mind, and I am one of them, but we still have so long to go. There will be nearly 20 more GFS runs between now and when the system approaches.

It's awfully far SW to be in a position to almost or completely miss the coast, and we're in a time of the year when westerlies are the weakest. But also, we have the abnormally steep ridge in the West/TX which results in steeper troughs here. Also, if it goes faster it's in a better position to get picked up by one. Just goes to show you how hard it is to get a really strong tropical system in a position to really nail us. I could definitely see a Floyd like track that clips easten LI and nails the area with heavy rain and winds on the coast, and also one that ends up a whiff more like Earl. Just too early to tell, and the troughs are in data sparse regions currently.

[psv88]

I do I do

but thats just because I'm a severe weather junkie

there would be little to no barrier islands left, no beaches, kennedy airport would be inundated...just a disaster...i for one hope this thing goes fishing...

[jm1220]

Also, the weaker it stays, the better perhaps for direct effects here. If it ramps up fast, it will feel the northward pull faster and recurve sooner perhaps. If it stays weaker, it could stay on a WNW path for longer. We're seeing this now with a number of westward lurches as Hispaniola is clearly affecting the circulation.

[IsentropicLift]

there would be little to no barrier islands left, no beaches, kennedy airport would be inundated...just a disaster...i for one hope this thing goes fishing...

you can't control the weather, no amount of hoping or wishcasting is going to steer this storm in the direction you want it to go in. If you want to believe in devine intervention, thats another topic for another forum.

I for one can't wait for the post media hype of how "global warming allowed such a strong TC get that far north"

[jasonli18t]

I think a Bob type of track is most likely.. In fact a track just east of that into the islands seems even more probable.. A Gloria type track seems almost impossible..

I don't think anyone actually wants to see a storm w/ 100mph winds come into Jamaica bay... Long island would be ruined...

i do! only the south shore would be ruined.

[Jefflaw77]

From a scientifc stand point it would be amazing.. But, realistically it would be an utter disaster..

[IsentropicLift]

The dry air that is being ingested off the downslowping from Hispanolia is what is leading the temporary decrease in convection, this won't be a problem in another 24 hours once the system gets further away.

[jm1220]

i do! only the south shore would be ruined.

SLOSH models indicate that just a cat 1 direct hit would place Long Beach under several feet of water at least, and even worse for some areas. Luckily the chances for this from Irene are slim to none.

[jasonli18t]

SLOSH models indicate that just a cat 1 direct hit would place Long Beach under several feet of water at least, and even worse for some areas. Luckily the chances for this from Irene are slim to none.

Yea it wouldn't be pretty. But long beach is a tiny sliver of land, with water on both sides, right at sea level. long beach kinda deserves it, i didn't tell you to build there!

[earthlight]

Presentation is good right now especially on visible satellite. But water vapor loops show that the system is once again ingesting some dry air. So we will see..

[Stormlover74]

It's already the top story on local media outlets. "Irene slams the caribbean, when will it hit our area"....uhhh....how about WILL it hit our area and what type of impact first then we can worry about when.

you can't control the weather, no amount of hoping or wishcasting is going to steer this storm in the direction you want it to go in. If you want to believe in devine intervention, thats another topic for another forum.

I for one can't wait for the post media hype of how "global warming allowed such a strong TC get that far north"

[IsentropicLift]

The models yesterday trended towards a stronger system in the 24-48 hour time period, indications are that this will not be the case...in fact the circulation is really taking a hit on the latest IR. Would not be suprised to see this come down to a cat 1 later today.

Also, those guidance models have the system beginning to curve NW very shortly, I don't see that happening, all indications are for a more westward movement, and a weaker storm would certainly keep it further south.

[psv88]

i do! only the south shore would be ruined.

eh...come on dude, anybody from the north shore knows the damage storms have caused on the sound and north shore harbors as well...massive erosion. Huntington down by the harbor is very low lying and floods during winter storms. A hurricane would allow a surge to come right down new york avenue into huntington.

And i am not praying for divine intervention. I have no idea how you implied that. Hoping is just stating a preference, not my wish to control it. wow.