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Hurricane Irene


earthlight

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The 0z Euro had the center in W NJ/E PA at 96 hours, and the 12z Euro has the center on NYC at 84 hours. So it shifted east by approximately the width of New Jersey.

This makes sense. The Euro is realizing that the storm simply cannot fully phase into the trough, it will partially, then get deflected east of north. Looks like there is some convergence in the models going on.

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Well I'm here in Villanova PA kind of wishing I was home in Monmouth for this storm. Figures the the first hurricane in over 20 years comes when I'm not around. Although it won't be anything to sneeze at here in SE PA either, probably 5"+ rains and wind gusts past 50mph (being conservative).

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Point and click for my area

Saturday Night...Tropical storm conditions possible. Cloudy. Humid with lows in the upper 60s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph...increasing to east 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph after midnight.

Sunday...Hurricane conditions possible. Cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s.

Sunday Night...Hurricane conditions possible. Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s.

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The 0z Euro had the center in W NJ/E PA at 96 hours, and the 12z Euro has the center on NYC at 84 hours. So it shifted east by approximately the width of New Jersey.

This makes sense. The Euro is realizing that the storm simply cannot fully phase into the trough, it will partially, then get deflected east of north. Looks like there is some convergence in the models going on.

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The 0z Euro had the center in W NJ/E PA at 96 hours, and the 12z Euro has the center on NYC at 84 hours. So it shifted east by approximately the width of New Jersey.

This makes sense. The Euro is realizing that the storm simply cannot fully phase into the trough, it will partially, then get deflected east of north. Looks like there is some convergence in the models going on.

Yup, there is amazing consistency between the models for a landfall somewhere between NJ and Nassau County lol.

BTW we both came back to the board at the same time-- it seems like a ghost town on here ;)

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Euro is making large jumps still run to run, that bothers me. GFS is so consistent. Basically the GFS splits the uprights of the GGEM and the Euro.

Well, at least they are all close together now lol and the Euro was the first global model to see the westward trend.

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All of the early 18z models take it solidly into NC, which really would serve to reduce the intensity of the storm when it reaches the upper Mid-Atlantic area.

with all due respect...look a few comments up...maybe 3 have it solidly into NC...the rest keep it over the water...with all due respect...

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