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Hurricane Irene


earthlight

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Governor Christie just had a news conference - all of NJ is now under a State of Emergency, and a voluntary evacuation has been issued for the Shore. I'm currently near Pt Pleasant Beach, I'll be leaving probably tomorrow evening. Would love to stay til Saturday but don't want to chance it with the traffic. Evacuations could go mandatory if situation doesn't change.

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Governor Christie just had a news conference - all of NJ is now under a State of Emergency, and a voluntary evacuation has been issued for the Shore. I'm currently near Pt Pleasant Beach, I'll be leaving probably tomorrow evening. Would love to stay til Saturday but don't want to chance it with the traffic. Evacuations could go mandatory if situation doesn't change.

I would expect Gov Cuomo to follow also.

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They are similar, but the UKMET has a NC landfall about 75 miles WSW of the GFS, just east of Cape Fear. Then the UKMET runs Irene just west of Norfolk/Virginia Beach, while the GFS has a track just east of the southern tip of the Delmarva.

The UKMET also trended about 75-100 miles west of the 00z run and has a stronger ridge over the W. Atlantic than the 00z run.

12z Ukie is similiar to the GFS.

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All the supermarkets around here are packed. Everything is flying off the shelves.

yeah.... we're going to get a foot! .....of rain : /

when i was a kid i always wanted a direct hit of a hurricane, and then gloria hit long island and everybody out there lost power for 7+ days.

that's when i stopped wishing for direct hits.

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This has nothing to do with the weather more to do with this situation. I gotta say the moderators, operators have really put together a grade A weather forum where we can display and share up to the minute information on this volitile situation. Many people are really not aware or prepared to grasp the magnitude of a storm we are facing but this board really does its job of getting useful and potentially very important information out there for whoever knows about this site. I've been browsing this forum for over 4 years now became part of it and it has been very useful to me as planning for a pending storm. This storm however is really putting an emphasis of how important this board is now for our area in getting information of model runs out for people that browse this forum to see.

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Everyone should read this. I got this from the SNE thread.

http://www.wundergro...rs/article.html

Anthony, I was going to post this on this board but oh well. This threat sure looks real despite I don't think the worse case scenario will happen but nobody should let their guard down at all because even if NYC and LI don't see a direct hit and even if it weakens as tropical storm the storm will be such huge that the rain and strong winds will extend pretty far out with this thing.

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Wow, the models seem to really be starting to pick up the fact that the storm is going to make a turn well east of due north as it approaches Long Island's latitude. I think this makes a lot of sense. This would be baaaaaaaaad for Long Island.

Bad for everyone, I imagine everyone within a mile of the ocean will be told to evacuate.

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Irene is a Cat 3 storm now with a pressure of 951.

Edit : Irene is now down to 948. Wow.

I'm not sure where you got that from, but NHC says 951

000

WTNT34 KNHC 251745

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011

200 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...EYE OF IRENE OVER ABACO ISLAND...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...26.5N 77.2W

ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF NASSAU

ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA

BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS

BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE

WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR

DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA

LATER TODAY. THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL ALSO LIKELY NEED TO BE

EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. IRENE IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD

THE NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE

HURRICANE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER

TODAY...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND

NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST

TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND

TONIGHT.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND

OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL

STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE

STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD

BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH

CAROLINA BY LATE FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS

MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN

BAHAMAS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE

SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...THE

SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6

TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST

OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE

LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT

PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

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Jeesus the GFS is locked in. Pretty much just like 6z. The center of the storm will be right over Central Park.

TWC had one of the lead forecasters at the NHC on when Carl Parker asked him how close to certain he was of this specific kind of track (and he specifically mentioned 1893) he said he had a "high level" of certainty of that kind of track because of the consistency shown by the models. He said this would be nothing at all like Gloria or Bob, when NYC "got off easy."

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Unnecessary.

To keep this thread from going off topic, as I am really just trying to read, I would just suggest reporting posts like his......we don't need board martyrs coming on here and acting like they are mods......

Just report that post as I did, and it will be taken care of, as the question that he lashed out on was fine.

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I don't appeciate your comment.. I've been reading this thread for a long time and the storn's track has been discussed a lot over the past few hours..intensity not so much.. I didn't think my current question was all that

unreasonable..

And i don't post to often..

How hard is to see read the forecast from the NHC? It's knocking on the door at 100MPH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 25.9N 76.8W 100 KT 115 MPH

12H 26/0000Z 27.5N 77.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

24H 26/1200Z 29.5N 77.8W 110 KT 125 MPH

36H 27/0000Z 31.4N 77.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

48H 27/1200Z 33.3N 77.1W 100 KT 115 MPH

72H 28/1200Z 37.8N 75.3W 85 KT 100 MPH

96H 29/1200Z 45.0N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

120H 30/1200Z 54.0N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

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