tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 they are having server issues and had to do a full reboot. they posted on their facebook page... they're not sure of the exact cause Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak22 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Governor Christie just had a news conference - all of NJ is now under a State of Emergency, and a voluntary evacuation has been issued for the Shore. I'm currently near Pt Pleasant Beach, I'll be leaving probably tomorrow evening. Would love to stay til Saturday but don't want to chance it with the traffic. Evacuations could go mandatory if situation doesn't change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12z Ukie is similiar to the GFS. Post an image along with this please. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Governor Christie just had a news conference - all of NJ is now under a State of Emergency, and a voluntary evacuation has been issued for the Shore. I'm currently near Pt Pleasant Beach, I'll be leaving probably tomorrow evening. Would love to stay til Saturday but don't want to chance it with the traffic. Evacuations could go mandatory if situation doesn't change. I would expect Gov Cuomo to follow also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12z FIM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I would expect Mayor Bloomberg to follow also. Let's hope he doesn't recommend for everyone to take in a broadway show. CT should issue one ASAP as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Appears the GGEM finally came west and has landfall somewhere on Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 based on what we've seen so far with the 12Z stuff, anyone have any thoughts as to how the Euro will come in?..... we thinking more or less a similar solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Let's hope he doesn't recommend for everyone to take in a broadway show. CT should issue one ASAP as well. He'll probably tell everyone to take in the sights on top of the Empire State building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Can anyone comment on intensity.. Basically this is a cat 1 at landfall.. Winds 75-85 mph w/ higher gusts... Is that the general thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 They are similar, but the UKMET has a NC landfall about 75 miles WSW of the GFS, just east of Cape Fear. Then the UKMET runs Irene just west of Norfolk/Virginia Beach, while the GFS has a track just east of the southern tip of the Delmarva. The UKMET also trended about 75-100 miles west of the 00z run and has a stronger ridge over the W. Atlantic than the 00z run. 12z Ukie is similiar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Euro probably comes in east of 0z. Landfall anywhere from Jersey coast to Moriches. Cant see it going as west as it showed at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 All the supermarkets around here are packed. Everything is flying off the shelves. yeah.... we're going to get a foot! .....of rain : / when i was a kid i always wanted a direct hit of a hurricane, and then gloria hit long island and everybody out there lost power for 7+ days. that's when i stopped wishing for direct hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 To our friends in NYC...I would take this storm very seriously. The flooding impact alone could have dramactic effects. I would be preparing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Everyone should read this. I got this from the SNE thread. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This has nothing to do with the weather more to do with this situation. I gotta say the moderators, operators have really put together a grade A weather forum where we can display and share up to the minute information on this volitile situation. Many people are really not aware or prepared to grasp the magnitude of a storm we are facing but this board really does its job of getting useful and potentially very important information out there for whoever knows about this site. I've been browsing this forum for over 4 years now became part of it and it has been very useful to me as planning for a pending storm. This storm however is really putting an emphasis of how important this board is now for our area in getting information of model runs out for people that browse this forum to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Everyone should read this. I got this from the SNE thread. http://www.wundergro...rs/article.html that's a good post, Ant. I frequently look at Jeff Master's blogs.. very insightful stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Irene is a Cat 3 storm now with a pressure of 951. Edit : Irene is now down to 948. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder81 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Everyone should read this. I got this from the SNE thread. http://www.wundergro...rs/article.html Anthony, I was going to post this on this board but oh well. This threat sure looks real despite I don't think the worse case scenario will happen but nobody should let their guard down at all because even if NYC and LI don't see a direct hit and even if it weakens as tropical storm the storm will be such huge that the rain and strong winds will extend pretty far out with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Anthony, I was going to post this on this board but oh well. This threat sure looks real despite I don't think the worse case scenario will happen but nobody should let their guard down at all. LOL you got banned? awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow, the models seem to really be starting to pick up the fact that the storm is going to make a turn well east of due north as it approaches Long Island's latitude. I think this makes a lot of sense. This would be baaaaaaaaad for Long Island. Bad for everyone, I imagine everyone within a mile of the ocean will be told to evacuate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 BTW.. 12Z Euro is out to 54 so we'll know that update momentarily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Irene is a Cat 3 storm now with a pressure of 951. Edit : Irene is now down to 948. Wow. I'm not sure where you got that from, but NHC says 951 000 WTNT34 KNHC 251745 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 200 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011 ...EYE OF IRENE OVER ABACO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 77.2W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF NASSAU ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL ALSO LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BY LATE FRIDAY. STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE... AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 through 54 hrs seems the euro is further west and faster....about to make landfall on the outer banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Jeesus the GFS is locked in. Pretty much just like 6z. The center of the storm will be right over Central Park. TWC had one of the lead forecasters at the NHC on when Carl Parker asked him how close to certain he was of this specific kind of track (and he specifically mentioned 1893) he said he had a "high level" of certainty of that kind of track because of the consistency shown by the models. He said this would be nothing at all like Gloria or Bob, when NYC "got off easy." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Unnecessary. To keep this thread from going off topic, as I am really just trying to read, I would just suggest reporting posts like his......we don't need board martyrs coming on here and acting like they are mods...... Just report that post as I did, and it will be taken care of, as the question that he lashed out on was fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I'm not sure where you got that from, but NHC says 951 From the main forum. A met posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I don't appeciate your comment.. I've been reading this thread for a long time and the storn's track has been discussed a lot over the past few hours..intensity not so much.. I didn't think my current question was all that unreasonable.. And i don't post to often.. How hard is to see read the forecast from the NHC? It's knocking on the door at 100MPH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 25.9N 76.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 27.5N 77.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 29.5N 77.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 31.4N 77.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 33.3N 77.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 37.8N 75.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 45.0N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/1200Z 54.0N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 hr 66 just south of newport news, va hr 72 over eastern delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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